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Market Sentiment |
dash
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 Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:30 am Post subject: Market Sentiment |
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A different sentiment indicator than the combined American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) + Investors Intelligence + Market Vane's Bullish Consensus Surveys used by Henry, but which seems to be sending the same message:
http://tinyurl.com/y75txa
It's almost becoming routine. In fact, Thursday's new high for the Dow was its 23rd since October.
Yet, bullish sentiment among investment newsletter editors remains moderately below its all-time high. From the point of contrarian analysis, this suggests that the bull market has at least a short-term lease on more life.
Consider recent readings of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock market exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Thursday night, the HSNSI stood at 52.0%.
This is nearly 20 percentage points lower than the level to which the HSNSI rose in late November, when the Dow was about 200 points lower than where it is today. In other words, in the face of a 2% rise, the average short-term market timer has become markedly less bullish.
That's an encouraging trend.
To be sure, the HSNSI's current reading of 52% is far closer to the high end of the HSNSI's historical range, which extends from minus 81.8% to 79.7%. So contrarians would not conclude from current sentiment levels that we're at the beginning of a major market advance.
Still, the HSNSI's decline in the face of a rising market does not bespeak the kind of stubborn bullishness that is typically seen at market tops.
Just contrast the current sentiment situation with what happened in March 2000 as the Internet bubble was bursting. In the face of the first 10% correction off that month's high, the average short-term stock market timing newsletter I track actually became more bullish, not less. Now that's stubborn bullishness, and isn't what we're seeing today.
The absence of stubborn bullishness is particularly evident among those market timing newsletters that focus on the Nasdaq market. The average exposure level of this subset of newsletters is reflected in the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index (HNNSI). The HNNSI currently is some 25 percentage points below its level from late October, despite strength in the market that has propelled the Nasdaq Composite Index
to close at a six-year high.
The bottom line? Newsletter sentiment is not so low as to allow contrarians to declare that happy days are here again to stay. But neither is that sentiment so high as to generate contrarian sell signals. End of Story |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 9:16 am Post subject: |
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Dollar, bond, stocks all hit resistance/fibs levels yesterday with expectations for this morning dump. The question right now is do you believe that Greece can deliver deep oversold levels. I don't think it can after this whole saga--but if Greece has proven anything it's don't underestimate its "abilities."
Airlines down, grains up this morning. Germany no recession and almost all china FDI is europe offset. RSIs on gold constructive. FB friday, and new Macs next month...we've got more stories out there. And commodity "rescheduling" can only be good for the world.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Horrible market action today. Reinforced by the general lack of fear except in the very short-term. ST indicators are oversold but IT indicators are still in neutral territory. More possible downside action. Best case scenario is for some kind of "flushing out" scenario over the next couple of weeks--forcing Europe's hands--then a significant rally over the summer. Don't think this will happen, though. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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Cashin calling Greece, "Lehman on Steroids." Cramer freaked out about copper de-stocking....yes, de-stocking. I'm looking forward to $3 gas.
Still, would have liked to see more out of Delta today and a plus on the XAL. We'll go with TMM for now:
| Quote: | As for today we feel déjà vu and would suggest that the market is really looking for some sort of policy response or else they will just keep drilling prices. The Eurostriches are once again silent on coordinated policy, but this time rather than it due to their heads being buried in the sand, they are too busy with their own internal fights
However,despite the new levels of euro panic TMM think they have seen this sort of day before and can sum it up as "The 19 stages of a Eurogeddon Monday". All times are London based. |
| Quote: | 1) Expect resolution on a European issue over the weekend.
2) On Sunday it becomes apparent there is no resolution.
3) Twitterati and blogosphere go into overdrive
4) Asia opens and sells hard.
5) Media quote twitterati and the Asian price falls.
6) 08.00 Europe, now whipped up, opens and sells hard.
7) 08.30 Media and commentaries quote the resultant price moves including lots of " haven't seen this price since the last time"
 09.00 More Selling.
9) 09.30 Having sold, the market takes a pause to notice that there hasn't actually been any new news.
10) 10.00 All talk is to the downside with more gloom recycling but no further price response.
11) 11.15 US wakes up to a deluge of commentary saying SELL and to seeing prices lower.
12) 12.00 US sells and prices fall again
13) 12.30 Models join in and sell.
14) 13.00 Europe relieved to see US commenters also saying the markets are a sell.
15) 14.30 US Equity markets open and fall hard to the "toldjaso" relief of all those who have sold in the last 24hrs.
16) 15.00 US notice that there is actually no new news and some shorts from Sunday Asia open are covered.
17) 15.15 Momentum picks up to the upside accompanied by "just a short term bounce, sell the rally" comments.
1 16.00 Small positive comment from a Eurocrat/Greek and markets recover further into European close.
19) Tuesday 10am - "Well it IS going to happen one day" - short term positions closed or moved to long term book as it morphs into a "Turnaround Tuesday". |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:07 pm Post subject: |
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Even father of post-bank bulls, Bove, goes neuter on summer--on europe of course.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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From Blackrock's (steady as she goes) earnings:
“We are not seeing major changes in investor behaviour,” said Laurence Fink, chairman and chief executive, who added that new year confidence was fragile. “Attitudes are still on the borderline of pessimism.”
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:59 am Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: | Was listening to one of the analysts on the Bloomie Friday, when it was obvious that sales were humming right along, and the response? "Hoarding." Things are so bad that people are tasering each other to get to the deals....and will now sit on it.
Once again, there are no facts--only interpreations of facts.  |
--Nov 28
Now we've got Easter Sales. And on the subject of "facts":
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/11/955711/the-chinese-data-choose-your-own-adventure/
This the way it ALWAYS is.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:31 am Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: | | Couple big investment houses pulling back to 4 year low in equity allocation; front page of USA Today's biz, "Sell in May." |
I love it. Breadth has been a little disappointing but the overall trend is still up. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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Couple big investment houses pulling back to 4 year low in equity allocation; front page of USA Today's biz, "Sell in May."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 9:17 am Post subject: |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Just two weeks after saying that investors should “remain cautious,” Larry Hatheway, the chief economist at UBS AG (UBSN), raised his recommendations on global shares and high-yield bonds in a Jan. 23 note to customers entitled, “Wrong, but not too late.” Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS), and Benoit Anne, the global head of emerging-markets strategy at Societe Generale (GLE) SA, said their estimates for developing nations were proven wrong..... |
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