MEXICO

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:42 pm Post subject: MEXICO

It's been weeks now and we only see political reaction today: bolsa, peso down despite crude sharply up.

Kicking and screaming geo-politics will EVENTUALLY be felt.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 6:28 am Post subject:

As predicted, autos will give big boost to Mexico while exploration delays in Gulf deep water must seen in light of recent events--relief.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anXTkq.Sfya4&pos=11
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 9:06 am Post subject:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-juarez-violence16-2010mar16,0,187558.story

This looks to grow and Spring Break Mexico can be written off. Not much effect on price (so far) and decent jobs number should allow me to exit this position for a spell.

Still like the Mexico story LT.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 7:24 am Post subject:

And the winner is?....not Buffett....not Gates....Slim:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCMMBJxfWT4c&pos=9
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:21 am Post subject:

We've arrived already!

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:03 am Post subject:

Numbers getting some traction:

http://www.detnews.com/article/20100218/AUTO01/2180378/1148/rss25

Thanks Fitch Wink

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:54 pm Post subject:

MXN continues to outperform, up 2% YTD vs. USD and second only to COP (up 4%) in the EM space. In comparison, BRL is down 5% YTD and CLP down 4% YTD. This comes after the peso also outperformed in Q4, coming in third best behind CLP and INR Wink

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 11:04 pm Post subject:

It's catching:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akuwhdAgvr3M
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2009 5:36 pm Post subject:

S&P Downgrade....we must be getting close Idea

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/14/111846/sp-downgrades-mexico/

Rising auto and white goods production; the special conduit of US production to Brazil, (and the inferiority complex to the same); the confidence and resiliency bred of '94; the return of tourist class after the waning of the flu and increased sin taxes at home; the rise of the clean, accredited medical industry on the border; the generational tug (Internet enabled) against monopoly; the coming structural shift of production away from asia; the lock on solid crude price and inevitable reinvestment (probably through Brazilian companies) set up Mexico for a Marketthoughts, "outperform."
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:50 am Post subject:

Hedges all 2010 oil production at $57...I'm luvin' it.

http://www.ft.com/reports/mexico-trade-investment-2009

First good china selloff and I'm there.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:56 pm Post subject:

Still looking to selloff for ;this EEM (not?) play. Debt downgrade this week may help. Here's a compare contrast to Brazil. I bought the Lula (socialist terror) selloff and sold six months later--maybe the biggest successful failure of my trading history.

http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/378f78da-d869-11de-b63a-00144feabdc0.html?catid=22&SID=3c35f9115ab51617047e065b14125dd5

Much will change when we get a whiff of jobs.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 10:55 am Post subject:

United Mexican States just announced they will be selling $1 billion US dollar bonds in a re-opening of their existing 5.95% bonds due 3/19/19. Those bonds had been trading in the upper 150's spread vs. Treasuries. Hearing the new issue will be in the +170 area.

That bond was originally issued in December at +390.

Marc Chandler
Mexico Central Bank Likely To Keep Rates On Hold Today
9/18/2009 9:44 AM EDT

Mexico central bank meets today and is expected to keep rates steady. It last cut rates 25 bp to 4.5% in July, but said then that it would pause. The Mexican economy remains in weak condition, and further easing is warranted. But for now, the central bank is on hold and we see no change in rates today either. Total easing this cycle now stands at 375 bp. Not bad, but others in the region have been much more proactive, such as Brazil (500 bp), Chile (775 bp), Colombia (550 bp), and Peru (525 bp) despite the fact that Mexico has been one of the hardest hit economies in the region.

Interest rates really haven't been a big determinant of Latin American FX this year. Year-to-date, CLP is up 17% vs. USD and is the second best performer in the region despite having rates at 0.5%. First is high-yielding Brazil (up 28% YTD) with rates at 8.755. Third is COP, up 15% YTD (rates at 4.5%), followed by PEN at up 8% YTD (with rates at 1.25%). MXN is up about 3% YTD vs. USD and is the laggard for the region despite having rates of 4.5%. Going forward,ongoing fiscal and downgrade concerns will continue to weigh on Mexican assets. While the peso and the Bolsa are likely to be dragged higher by overall Emerging Markets rallies and rising risk appetite, we think Mexico will continue to underperform until we see signs of a stronger economic rebound and progress on much-needed structural reforms. For USD/MXN, support level is 13.1554 which is the 62% retracement level of the Aug-Sep rise. Break of that would target the Aug low of 12.7626.

Howard Simons
Back To Mexico
9/18/2009 12:30 PM EDT

One of the interesting aspects of Mexican markets since dollar LIBOR started to decline in March is how strong they have been in relation to the U.S.

In dollar terms, Mexico has had a stock market total return in excess of 72%; this contrasts to our return of just over 42%.

The excess return on a dollar carry trade into the peso has been 12.5% even though the spot rate on the currency has declined 8.75%.

Is this more evidence of the U.S. financing the rest of the world via the dollar carry trade? Probably. If short-term rates are pushed higher in the U.S., will Mexican markets suffer an "unwind shock?" I don't see how it could be avoided.
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 12:02 pm Post subject:

Bullish US, bullish autos bearish china, neutral crude: I'll be buying Mexico as my first EEM play on this shakeout. Maybe a sept selloff and hurricane/flu wammo will provide the setup. Idea

1. They understand deleveraging.

2. "Peak Oil" has been realized and factored into economy. Meanwhile $70 equilibrium and joint ventures promise good things on this front.

3. China not all cracked up to be: this is more than high transportation costs but cuts fundamentally to intellectual property and clean ventures.

4. Heavy goods manufacturing base both for US and on into latin america through free trade (look for reversal of china products through GM et al).

5. Civil War holds no further surprises.

6. Peso relief with steady, high crude dollars working that BOP.

7. As long as there are teenagers who want to get drunk in the sun there'll be a floor on tourism.

Marc Chandler
Mexican Peso Dragged Lower by Rating Jitters
8/31/2009 12:39 PM EDT

The short-term speculative market likes the Mexican peso. The net long speculative position at the IMM has risen sharply in recent weeks. The net long non-commercial position rose to 70.8k as of last Tuesday up more than 6-fold since late July. A number of investment houses have recommended long peso positions as a way to take advantage of the global upturn and in particular the revival of the auto sector in the US.

To be sure these may appear to be longer term issues but they also have more immediate implications. Today and S&P analyst warned that Mexico's rating could be cut before the end of the year if the government fails to broaden the tax base to offset the declining oil revenues.

Over the past 5-6 sessions, the dollar has appreciated almost 5% against the Mexican peso. We suspect there may be further dollar short-covering (long peso liquidation. The immediate target is around MXN13.43 and then MXN13.60. But rather than chase the dollar now, look for a pullback in the MXN13.20-MXN13.25 as a better risk-reward opportunity to buy US dollars or hedge MXN exposure.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_16/b4127034232864.htm

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_16/b4127034240238.htm
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HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jun 20, 2009 12:20 am Post subject:

Mexican central bank cuts by 50 bps to 4.75% - and vows to pause its easing bias soon:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=asiuDqrkcjbk