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rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:42 pm Post subject: MEXICO |
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It's been weeks now and we only see political reaction today: bolsa, peso down despite crude sharply up.
Kicking and screaming geo-politics will EVENTUALLY be felt.
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Last edited by rffrydr on Wed Jun 09, 2010 6:27 am; edited 1 time in total |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:46 am Post subject: |
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Anyone who's insisting on CDs these last three month I've pointed them south of the border--and still do:
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:32 am Post subject: |
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One of strongest bond markets this year (and last). 3-4% on short money with economy tied most directly to US and "cheap" currency after last Fall's fall.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:25 am Post subject: |
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Old men and old ways...staging a comeback, "patonage politics":
| Quote: | “So that things get done.” Under this uninspiring slogan, Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary party (PRI), which ruled from 1929 to 2000, tried to regain the presidency five years ago. It finished third.
After five more years of deadlock, however, Mexico seems ready to revert to its old regime. Sunday’s record victory for the PRI in the state of Mexico, the country’s largest and one of the few where all three main parties are viable, makes Enrique Peña Nieto, the state’s current PRI governor, the favourite in next year’s presidential election.
This is not surprising. The rightwing National Action party, in power since 2000, has failed to implement structural economic reforms and has taken punishing losses in the drug war. The left blew its chance with a popular and charismatic candidate in 2006 and has descended into turmoil. Mr Peña Nieto, a well-presented pragmatist who disavows any ideology, is the most welcoming port in the storm. Nothing much would change under his presidency but at least some things would get done.
The peso is at a post-crisis high, up 33 per cent from its nadir 30 months ago. The Mexican stock market did not react to the election and has traded in line with emerging markets as a whole all year. Investors seem unconcerned.
They should pay more attention. The main reason Mexico’s growth stalled once the PRI left office is its anachronistic constitution. Without a hegemonic party to oil the wheels of power, its institutions proved too weak to get anything done. The right solution would be to amend the constitution but the PRI helped block that. Regressing to patronage politics would mean accepting only incremental improvements, a far inferior alternative. For all its problems, Mexico has stable prices and solid public finances. Returning to the PRI would risk abandoning any attempt to convert that into significant economic growth. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon May 09, 2011 9:24 am Post subject: |
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Old men and old ways in Mexico finally reform:
| Quote: | Last week, Mexico's Supreme Court handed the billionaire his biggest legal setback in years, ruling that his Mexican wireless company, Telcel, couldn't ignore decisions by the telephone regulator regarding interconnection rates while the company challenged those rulings in court, a tactic that Telcel has long used.
The move came weeks after Mexico's antitrust regulator levied a $1 billion fine against Telcel for alleged monopolistic practices. The fine, which Telcel plans to appeal and will pay only if it loses the appeal, was by far the biggest in Mexico's history.
"Both of these events could reshape the competitive landscape of Mexico's telecommunications market," says Julio Madrazo, a public-affairs and political consultant. Eduardo Garcia, who runs a Mexican website, Sentido Común, that tracks Mr. Slim's wealth, adds: "This is a potential game-changer." President Felipe Calderón welcomed the court decision, calling it "positive." |
--wsj
Carlos Slim is Mexico's pride...and misery. "El Jefe" benign or no, is the russian model, not theirs. Egypt rings far and wide.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 8:32 am Post subject: |
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Hey....look where inflation isn't:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-25/lime-price-plunge-pushing-down-inflation-bets-mexico-credit.html
| Quote: | | Bond investors are paring their inflation bets as the slowdown in consumer price increases prompts central bank Governor Agustin Carstens to keep benchmark interest rates at a record low 4.5 percent. Prices fell 0.09 percent in the first half of April, more than economists’ 0.03 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, as prices for limes, a staple in the Mexican diet, plunged for a second month. In March, consumer prices rose 0.19 percent, less than the 0.3 percent estimate. |
Title implies "flukiness" of number....but the index is the index, and the inflation bias is the inflation bais.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 10:04 pm Post subject: |
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They say we're getting more and more like Mexico every day:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-rich-poor-20110420,0,2812402.story
| Quote: | Maids in pastel uniforms, security guards, gardeners and chauffeurs — these are the public denizens of this super-rich enclave. The actual homeowners and permanent residents are rarely seen.
Of Mexico's many contradictions, one stands out. The richest man on the planet lives in Mexico, as do millions of people existing below the poverty line. Yet rich and poor repeatedly intersect, entangled in a routine of mutual survival, of class-based enabling. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:38 am Post subject: |
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Like I said, buy american:
Published: February 23 2011 09:59 | Last updated: February 23 2011 15:22
| Quote: | For emerging markets there is another way, if they want to take it. Let’s call it el camino mexicano. While emerging markets across the world battle rising inflation amid fears that higher rates will squelch growth, Mexico’s policymakers have flexibility. Gross domestic product is growing faster than expected, at a 5.5 per cent clip. And inflation, once endemic, is 3.8 per cent, below the UK’s.
Inflation has been licked even though Mexico’s consumers are heavily exposed to rising food prices. So how has Mexico done this? Fiscal frugality: the public sector deficit fell from 6.2 per cent of GDP after its 1994 devaluation crisis to 1 per cent in 2006, giving it the flexibility to survive the post-Lehman crisis. Also a hawkish central bank followed its mandate to stamp out inflation. Now analysts are raising their estimates for growth this year, with little fear of higher rates. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2010 6:39 am Post subject: |
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Chinese investment boomlet coming as a new "platform economy" takes shape? Dominican Republic....well that's already bought and paid for. Stay tuned, "the currency wars."
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Oct 06, 2010 9:22 pm Post subject: |
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That bearishness out of London is just oozing--even into its beloved oil patch. Can't they see, BP's pain could be Mexico's pleasure? And imagine if that pot legalization goes through, the tax income!
Maquiladores are asia's backdoor conduit to brazil and will benefit from rising trade tensions and sky-high transportation costs.
I made money on this trade and hope to get on again but I'll have to admit that emerging world has emerged:
Mexico’s century
Published: October 6 2010 15:17 | Last updated: October 6 2010 19:38
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The news that Mexico has sold 100 year bonds at a rock bottom yield of 6.1 per cent in the largest-ever issue of a “century” represents the intersection of not one but two bubbles: an extreme thirst for yield and duration by investors and a renewal of investors fatal attraction to developing countries.
Emerging market risk spreads have gone from a peak eight years ago to new lows recently. This may be broadly justified, but a look back at Mexico’s last century shows how much can change. The modern Mexican state only really became stable after 1929 and, even then, stable only by developing world standards. Even after the PRI party consolidated power for the next 71 years, there were multiple currency devaluations, such as those in 1976, 1982 and 1994. The last required a $50bn rescue package from the US.
More recently, drug gangs have wreaked havoc, taking 30,000 lives since President Felipe Calderón took office while scaring away tourists and occasionally outgunning the army. Petrodollars are also vulnerable. Old fields are in precipitous decline and new ones require significant capital and expertise to exploit. Production is a quarter below its 2004 peak and Mexico could become a net importer within 15 years. Bringing more foreign capital into the sector seems sensible but is constrained by political opposition and constitutional protection for state-owned Pemex’s public status. In any case, revenue diversification is threatened by rampant tax evasion and Mexico’s notorious corruption. Transparency International rates it 89th cleanest worldwide.
Are political instability and even inflation relics of the past? Lending Mexico money for a century at a rate lower than the “risk free” US paid for far shorter maturities a decade ago shows the triumph of hope over experience. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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Mexico
Published: June 30 2010 15:03 | Last updated: June 30 2010 19:49
| Quote: | Blood is on the streets of Mexico. Monday’s assassination of the leading candidate for the governorship of the border state of Tamaulipas is the country’s worst act of political violence in 16 years. The timing – days before the 10th anniversary of the election that ousted the Institutional Revolutionary party (PRI) from the presidency after seven decades, and before a swathe of state elections – was horrible. The sharp sell-off for the peso that followed was understandable but overdone.
The killing was a show of force by a drug gang battling for control of smuggling routes to the US. This sounds like Colombia, where drug barons assailed the state. But Mexico’s narcos, unlike Colombia’s, have no particular ideology. They merely want politicians to let them get on with their business – the tacit deal across much of the country under the PRI. For the past 10 years, governments of the centre-right National Action party have confronted the narcos, leading to turf wars between cartels, and now the targeting of politicians, but no attempt to enforce a new ideology.
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Whew...dodged that bullet. I'll be back.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Jun 12, 2010 9:20 am Post subject: |
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Counting shipping, with Honda giveback, chinese auto production costs marginally higher than Mexico.
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rffrydr
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