Models without M3

[nodoodahs]

At this point, I’m substituting M2 for M3, adding additional technical indicators, and using some fundamental indicators that I hadn’t used before.

S&P500

The 13-week model output is in the 7th decile. This suggests both a median and average gain of 2.9% and very low chance of a decline exceeding 10%. The 52-week model output is in the 7th decile as well. This suggests median and average annual returns of 19.3% and 17.5%, with only a 4% chance that the S&P500 will be 10% or more lower than today’s value in a year’s time.

10YT

The 13-week model output is (barely) in the 1st decile. This is a very strong suggestion that yields will fall, and the 52-week model output is in the 2nd decile, also suggesting that yields will fall from today’s values. Probably 85-90% likely we’ll see lower rates in a quarter and a year, based on these models.

USDX

The 13-week model output is in the 4th decile. This suggests a 65% chance of a decline, with a median and average predicted decline of 1.2 to 1.5 points. The 52-week model output is in the 7th decile, which suggests the quarterly decline is going to be a retracement, and that a year from now we have a 2/3 chance of a higher USDX, by median and average of 3.3 and 1.8 points.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.