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More on REITs
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2007 11:55 am    Post subject: More on REITs Reply with quote

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arCihwuz4ocE&refer=home

Quote:
The last time REIT dividend yields fell as far below Treasury yields was during the seven years that started in November 1978. Bond yields soared as Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker increased the central bank's target interest rate to 20 percent in 1980 to combat soaring inflation.

The NAREIT index underperformed the S&P 500 during that span by 33 percentage points.

REITs in Asia and Europe also have reached records as asset prices in Japan rebounded and countries from the U.K. to Germany and Pakistan follow the U.S. in introducing property trusts.

The Bloomberg Asia REIT Index climbed 34 percent in the past 12 months and five of the 10 biggest gains were from Japan.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still bearish on REITs:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.RMp_hRkal8&refer=home
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BCA on REITs:

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20070911.GIF

Quote:
Our vacancy rate composite (shown inverted and advanced), which is comprised of our demand and supply composites for the major real estate sectors, is warning that upward momentum in vacancy rates will build this year. The implication is that REIT profits and cash flows are likely to stagnate, sustaining the valuation squeeze in share prices. Stay clear.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

While the Architectural Billings Index is hitting on all cylinders.

http://www.aia.org/aiarchitect/thisweek07/0622/0622b_otb.cfm
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jon Fosheim of Oak Hill REIT Management now shorting REITs. Note that membership is required to view the site but it is free:

http://members.forbes.com/forbes/2007/0702/064.html
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, I like the chart.

Dividend yield of NAREIT Equity REIT Index still at 3.79% at the end of May, compared to 3.69% when we did our article on REITs in our February 1st commentary:

http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20070201.html

Here's the latest June "REIT Watch" from NAREIT:

http://www.nareit.com/REITWatch/RW0706.pdf
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2007 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chart O-th'day bringing you REIT breakdown from 2002 accelerated trendline:


http://www.chartoftheday.com/20070622.htm?T
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PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From above:

Quote:
The REIT market took off relative to stocks at the very time when the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking intentions were becoming clear. The one explanation possible for this, other than complete mania, is that a flatter yield curve is associated with a strengthening economy, one able to support higher office rents.




http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/investing/10339824_2.html

Wrong: it was fear. With the benefit of hindsight we see the bear reinvented as the bull--or more accurately, Alpha.


Another untimely quote:
Quote:
Of course, if there really was a lot of money sloshing about, we would expect it to manifest itself in a more positively sloped yield curve, greater inflation expectations and significantly higher bond yields. Yet neither the yield curve nor long-term rates, both of which include inflation expectations, are acting as if too much money is chasing too few financial assets.


That may now be true.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2007 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Covered SRS today: 12% in 12 days. Can't say there's no room for shorts.

Will look to re-enter. Or just say thanks. Razz
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 01, 2007 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Twice burned? Ignorance is definitely not bliss when it comes to the markets. But sometimes you can be too smart. Moral: when the numbers don't add up don't look at numbers. The last paragraph says it all.


http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/investing/10339824.html

Knowledge is an ending.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The US Architecture Firms’ Billing Index fell 5.4 to 52.5 in February after announced expectations of a strong year.


http://www.aia.org/work_on_boards
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't know what sale this refers to but saw it in passing:
Quote:
How do you buy an office building in New York with no leases expiring for ten years for more than $1.2 billion with an internal yield of 4%, which is 50 basis points less than a 10-year US bond? And that is before maintenance reserves!

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