Morgan Keegan Upsidedown

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:31 am Post subject: Morgan Keegan Upsidedown

Word to the wise: don't get too distracted trading when your real risk may be sneaking up in the form of your savings account--like mine Shocked

http://seekingalpha.com/article/49762-a-bond-fund-that-s-redefining-pain
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:00 pm Post subject:

I hate Regions Financial with a special passion but got back into some its ex-funds on the Aug 8/9 yield puke on exactly the below consideration. There's some "discrete" call options embedded in the CDO litigation. Further unfortunate familiarity with this bank makes me believe that the Morgan Keegan spinoff WILL happen, and the market bottom will quicken the pace dramatically. All will have a nice little rally. I just hate it too much to take position--alright may a call spread....just one. Razz

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e86bfb6c-f372-11e0-b98c-00144feab49a.html#axzz1aQpNJdvk
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 3:31 pm Post subject:

With the patience of Job....the NAV has been reappearing in nice fat chunks. Not write-ups here but "judgement" calls:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XHAVX+Interactive#symbol=xhavx;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1302246/000119312508186608/dnq.htm

And here comes another one:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/21/601571/jpm-to-pay-153m-to-settle-magnetar-related-charges/
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 8:21 pm Post subject:

These things, now owned by Brookfield, have been paying over 10% most of last two years and though CDOs extirpated mostly from most of them they still will have standing in mortage put-back gate. HTR is the one fund that still carries mortgage paper. The others fly under the radar but stand to benefit, perhaps greatly, from any systmatic put-backs of -06-08 tranches or settlement thereof.

I don't think that's gonna happen but.... you'll collect 8% while you wait. Small and not very liquid, use limit orders only and only small orders at a time.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Nov 23, 2007 1:10 pm Post subject:

So most of the "equity" tranch CDOs in these CEFs have been marked next to zero. If you like global growth stories such as these:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1194...

There are buried gems to be found. The largest CDO position is one of these, Kenmoore. That the analyst pushing the Whirlpool story is from MKeegan is no surprise. Also, Senior tranced CDOs will pay more dependably in general than holding the mortgages outright.

As always, diligence must be applied.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:41 am Post subject:

"Independent Adminstrator"--which market immediately went to premium because it's a "liability-control piece of fiction."--which no doubt is becoming more real everyday.

One thing though: this is inherently an illiquid market. Corporate onds themselves are illiquid compared to stocks and have to be bought in "passes" that take 10s of minutes. So much has to be spread to treasuries or "securitized" a la GXM of old or the Default CDS indicies. That's the natural course. These CDOs are so unique that they're pretty much buy-and-hold and the mutual fund corollary of NAV can only be used very loosely. The payments will out. Now, with GAAP, there is the question of Banks....

Is Capitalism over long time periods of time really capitalism? Is Buffet really a european-style socialist?!

Real property and Abstract property are the same--and they are opposites!
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:17 am Post subject:

Appreciate the article - interesting that WSJ actually dug through the mortgage holdings in the securitized vehicle and tracked down the borrowers.

Would also be interesting to see how they are valuing the rest of the subprime and other stuff in his portfolio, especially since there is still no market for many of these securities.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:04 am Post subject:

The Posterboy is me..... Embarassed

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119258727851561561.html

...And maybe smokes out a bottom. Twisted Evil

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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!