Mutual Fund Flows

[Gizmo]

Month end/Quarter end Window dressing.


Funds won't be much help, but they may do some rotation. Most Fund flows going to the International Funds.

Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $1.974 billion in the week ended 3/16/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 84% of the inflows ($1.656 Bil);

Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.959 billion in the week ended 3/9/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 80% of the Inflows ($2.367 Bil);

Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $2.842 billion in the week ended 3/2/05 with Non-domestic funds reporting 92% of the inflows ($2.606 Bil); http://www.amgdata.com/
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Gizmo

[Dubious]

I agree...something to keep in your tool box.

Insider selling is a great one. Called the top and 2000 and it is calling the top now .

I love how they had the CEO Sentment Conference last month. Headed by the Pfzier CEO (no less). They would come out and say ra ra ra the economy is great. Then you see on CNBC under their picture - THE ECONOMY IS GREAT. Then you look at the insider selling list the same person dumped 1M shares the same day. I normally dump shares when I think they are going up too, wink, wink.

That is why the call me......

Dubious

[HenryTo]

FWIW, fund outflows from domestic stocks have been a great contrarian indicator over the last 18 months if one wanted to go long in an oversold situation.

That being said, this didn't work during the 2000 to 2002 period as there were so many weeks of mutual fund outflows in a declining market. In a cyclical bull market, though, this works pretty well.

[Dubious]

I really do not watch these numbers anymore.

The insider selling/buying numbers are more important to monitor.

Insider selling is at records last seen February 2000. Hmm. What do they know????

Dubious

[HenryTo]

It will be interesting to see the numbers when/if emerging markets turn out to be a disappointment once again - as they always have!

The only emerging markets that I am long-term bullish on are China, India, and some parts of Eastern Europe. China is now very much overheated and has too much capacity and too much overinvestment. Countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico, and even parts of Western Europe I have not been bullish on in the long-run and probably won't be for the foreseeable future - especially if oil prices take a hit.

The question to ask when one is investing in emerging markets or (for the long-run) is which countries are capable of creating companies that can compete with U.S. companies in the long-run and in the international arena? Obvious candidates include China, India, South Korea, etc. (note that I said emerging markets). Do countries like Mexico fit the bill? Maybe sometime in the future but I just don't see it right now.

[Gizmo]

Mutual fund flows March 23... Showing signs of risk aversion as high yield and emerging markets take big hits.

Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $1.706 billion in the week ended 3/23/05 with Growth & Income funds reporting the largest inflows ($450 Mil) since 1/21/04 and Equity Income funds reporting the largest inflows in 11 weeks ($430 Mil), and more funds reporting inflows to that sector (136) than any week since 4/22/1998;

Financial/Banking funds and Energy funds report the largest inflows of any sector ($411 Mil and $401 Mil, respectively), because of large ETF inflows:
$456 Mil to Select Sector SPDRs Financial (47% fund assets);
$357 Mil to Select Sector SPDRs Energy (17% fund assets);

Small Cap Growth/Value funds report net cash outflows of -$728 million, largely because of outflows totaling: -$568 Million from iShares Russell 2000 Index fund;

Non-domestic Equity funds report inflows totaling $591 million as International Equity funds report inflows of $343 million;

Asia Pacific (Ex-Japan) funds report the largest net cash outflows (-$49 Mil) since 5/19/04 because of:
-$35 Mil from iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index fund;
-$19 Mil from iShares MSCI South Korea Index fund;

Emerging Markets Equity funds report the largest net cash outflows (-$265 Mil) since 5/19/04;

Latin America funds report net outflows of -$45 million because of:
-$20 Mil from iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index fund;
-$15 Mil from iShares MSCI Brazil Index fund;
-$7 Mil from iShares MSCI Mexico Index fund;
Taxable Bond funds report net cash outflows of -$411 million as High Yield Corporate Bond funds report net outflows of -$1.5 billion, the largest from that sector since 5/12/04

http://www.amgdata.com/
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Gizmo