My Homeys - the homebuilders

[nodoodahs]

http://nodoodahs.com/individual-stocks/my-homeys-overview/
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[rffrydr]

Buying at book (if you can value "inventories"--which are bigger than builders' say)

Citigroup analyst Stephen Kim is among those who think the Street may have overestimated inventory overhang and who expect orders to recover once cancellation rates moderate. When that happens, home builders could rebound -- perhaps as soon as the fourth quarter, or once this anticipatory sector catches the first whiff of stabilization.

Citigroup's option strategists had scoured the Russell 1000 for other stocks trading near tangible book value. But for most segments, "options struck near book value don't have much value, since book is so far from the stock price." However, according to a recent note, the tangible book value per share is about 43.74 for MDC Holding (MDC), 24.48 for Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), 39.25 for Centex (CTX), 21.49 for Pulte Homes (PHM) and 33.17 for Beazer Homes (BZH).

The stocks have slid further since, and the trade looks more compelling as put prices climb. With Hovnanian shares around 26.50, for instance, its January 25 puts were at $2.35, an 8.9% premium to the stock. Centex was trading near 45; its out-of-the-money January 40 puts were at $2.90.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[Goodfella]

Pulte Corp. earnings to miss expectations

Print | | Disable live quotes By Tomi Kilgore
Last Update: 7:21 AM ET Jun 2, 2006


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Pulte Corp. (PHM : Pulte Corporation
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Last: 33.03+0.56+1.72%

4:15am 06/02/2006

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PHM33.03, +0.56, +1.7%) warned that second-quarter and 2006 earnings would fall short of expectations as an increase in inventory, higher cancellation rates and higher interest rates have led to weaker-than-anticipated buyer demand through the first two months of the quarter. The Bloomfield Hills, Mich. home builder said it now expects earnings of 85 to 95 cents a share for the quarter ending June and earnings of $4.70 to $5 a share for the year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had been expecting second-quarter earnings of $1.09 a share and 2006 earnings of $5.59 a share, on average. Net new orders for the first two months of the quarter

[Goodfella]

news to me, building societies have been offering 30 year mortages for the last century! alhtough in the early times, not in cash as such, in labour

one might say owning property is part of our culture

[rffrydr]

I thought the UK like most of the world, didn't have a 30yr Mortgage until only the last decade. Ergo, Europe's concentration on the 10yr bond and ours, until just recently, on the 30yr. Homes, houses, were for the rich.

This credit expansion with the rock-bottom rates gave real estate a whole new look.

[nodoodahs]

Definitely not long any of these ... yet. But trying to figure out which will be strongest when they turn. Still thinking they'll turn in 2006.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[Goodfella]

In my short time in the markets, i dont remember the abundance of the contrarian view as much as today - maybe the shorts will be right this time.

If the bull market in the long bond is over, ditto for the homebuilders?
US home builders have been stella performers for 30 years, the UK homebuilders pale in comparison; maybe its the abundance of cheap land in the US, maybe demographics



I'm not short the stocks, but in essence i am short - i dont own a home. inever had the chance to buy a home at reasonable valuation due to the greed of the generation before me


just a little rant , goodluck longs anyway (jinx)