My Thoughts

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 15, 2005 1:23 am Post subject: My Thoughts

This is just my personal opinion but judging by the indicators that I've been keeping track of consistently, it seems like there's a good chance we may be at the beginning of a pretty substantial decline.

I see the P/C ratio steadily going up but not oversold. While the number of new highs is still outpacing the number of new lows on the NYSE, the reverse is true for the NASDAQ. The weird thing is, the one-day NYSE ARMS reading today hit a level of 0.50 - the lowest reading we've seen since mid November of last year.

Both the NYSE and the NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index have also turned substantially down, but they are also definitely not in the oversold area. Moreover, the NASDAQ Composite has never confirmed the Dow Industrials nor the Dow Transports on the upside on March 4th. While this is not necessary under Dow Theory, I believe it is a definite plus from a logical standpoint - given the prevalence of NASDAQ stocks in the retail investor's portfolio.

Insider selling has also picked up substantially, while the Fed is scheduled to raise the Fed Funds rate again on March 22nd (just a week away). Steel prices are expected to rise again, and oil is not going down either even as talk of a new 500,000 barrel raise in the OPEC quota came along earlier yesterday. The "positive" INTC news last Thursday evening was ignored on Friday and again ignored yesterday. Concurrent with the resignation of CEO Greenberg from AIG and its delay with the filing of the 10-K, this could be the trigger for some substantial down side ahead. We will see.

Gizmo · Posted: Sun May 08, 2005 7:39 am Post subject:

Henry,

I believe the horse is already out of the barn regards any rally here with 75% of the move already made at 10,400.

I trade the Ndx so am not really up on the Dow but I would expect on that index for any rally continuation to be stopped by the 50dma which often contains and defines the trend and certainly by the Jan. lows at 1480.

Fed raising rates into a weakening economy, tremendous overhead resistance to be worked off, seasonal strength dissipating, and yada, yada, yada.
_________________
Gizmo

HenryTo · Posted: Mon May 02, 2005 7:06 pm Post subject: The Eve of the Fed Meeting

I continue to see a lot of flip-flopping around the internet on the eve of the Fed meeting. What do I mean? Well, a lot of bears are bearish on the market this year but they are now all switching to the bullish side based on the recent oversold condition of the market and based on the rally of the last two days.

As for me, I don't recommend my subscribers to do anything at least until after we see the reaction to the Fed meeting tomorrow. Who knows - we may get a huge rally out of it but it is not a rally I would want to bet on right now. Just because stocks that have gone down significantly over the last four months are holding their support levels doesn't mean that one should go in and buy. This includes stocks like AIG, SBUX, EBAY, FNM, HDI, and IBM, etc.

Signing off,

Henry

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2005 11:07 pm Post subject: yep

Gizmo,

That's right - a day's rally does not a bull market make. I urge my readers not to get all worked up by one day of rally and to take a longer-term and big picture view of things. The GDP number confirmed with what I have said for the last few weeks, the the domestic (and now the world's) economy is slowing and this will be reflected in stock prices soon - oversold or not!

Take great care, everyone. Wink

Henry

Gizmo · Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2005 5:57 pm Post subject:

Looked like window dressing. Healthcare and Utilities don't lead healthy bull markets.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/Page/IndicesIndexPg&r=1&l=EN&b=4&s=6&ig=48&i=56&si=138&xcd=500
_________________
Gizmo

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2005 8:14 am Post subject: oops

Oops. Guess I just jinxed the bulls.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2005 8:03 am Post subject: rally?

Looks like the market is trying to rally again here. The excuse? MSFT's earnings - which didn't meet estimates but who did provide a rosy forecasts (as opposed to what they did in the late 1980s to the late 1990s when they will always understate forecasts).

Let's see what it can do here. Any rally on pathetic volume or breadth should be sold, I believe. At the same time, nearly all the ingredients for a ST bottom are here, although I definitely won't try to go on the long side here at this time.

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:55 pm Post subject: Russell's PTI

Russell's PTI is again 3 points above its 89 DMA. Like I said before, his PTI has more or less held above its 89 DMA ever since March 2003. Every time his PTI has touched or declined slightly below its 89 DMA, the market stage a huge rally.

Will it happen again this time? Stay tuned.

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:47 pm Post subject: Again!

Market got a reprieve yesterday but we're now on the edge, once again. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator has been hanging around on the zero line for the longest time and now it is for a decisive break, either way.

Don't forget MSFT reports tonight.

The fact that the long yields went down and the homebuilding stocks tanked as well is cause for concern. Although it is constructive that the Bank Index is still very much above the 95 support level.

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 8:40 pm Post subject: On the edge

Folks, I may be wrong here but I think the stock market is on the edge, once again. Richard Russell's PTI (Primary Trend Indicatro) declined a full 8 points today and is now only 3 points above its 89-day moving average. Over the last 12 months, the market has always bounced when his PTI just hit the moving average or declines slightly below it. It happened again last week. The question is: Will it happen again this time? Can the market bounce at least one more time? If the answer is no, then watch out below.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator declined nearly 60 points today and is now at 1.44 - right at the zero line. If it penetrates the zero line tomorrow in a convincing way, then watch out below as well.

Signing off,

Henry

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:26 am Post subject: thanks

Thanks for posting your work here, ebt111!

For those who dont't know, ebt111 used to post at the Bear Forum and is a very knowledgable trader and technican. I have great respect for his work and his calls are usually accurate! Very Happy

I will be going through my indicators tonight but I still don't think this is a good buying point right now. Just MHO.

ebt111 · Newbie Joined: 20 Apr 2005 Posts: 1

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:39 am Post subject: Nokia

Also, Nokia is infamous for not meeting their optimistic forecasts. QCOM is more honest and open and they are not being optimistic for the rest of this year. I think QCOM is more of a leading indicator than Nokia when it comes to the handset market.

Just IMHO

Henry

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:37 am Post subject: weird bounce

Thanks for the post, Gizmo.

I'm sitting here stunned - the market is up quite a bit and yet the stocks that should be taking the market are not rallying. ebay is down 4% as I write this (who would've thought?) and the Bank Index just made a lower low from last Friday's intraday low.

This is a very weird bounce and it may just end badly.

Gizmo · Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 12:05 am Post subject:

Bearish engulfing candlestick today.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[h,a]daclyiay[pc9!c13!f][vc60][iLa4,9,5!Lh5,5]&pref=G

Notice the volume bars? Distribution. Low volume rallies, then they pull the plug.
_________________
Gizmo

Gizmo · Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 12:01 am Post subject:

Complacency rules. Seems like a market in which we could drop another 10% and nobody would notice. LOL
_________________
Gizmo