Natural Gas - Problem Rather than the Solution?

[HenryTo]

Very interesting article on natural gas from Energypulse.net. Let's just say that if our predictions for worldwide oil supply is anywhere as bad as our predictions for U.S. oil production and U.S. and Canadian natural gas production, then we will be seeing some very rough waters ahead.

Original link: http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1050

Part of the article is reproduced below:
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The Problem with Natural Gas
7.14.05 Frank Clemente, Senior Professor of Sociology and Energy Policy, Penn State University

In 1997, Joseph Riva, senior geologist writing for the Colorado School of Mines, turned a skeptical eye toward the rapidly emerging dependence of the United States on natural gas (NG). Riva suggested that the rush to embrace NG as the primary fuel to meet incremental electricity and space heating demand was based more on sociopolitical hope than on geological reality. Noting that domestic NG production had peaked at 22.6 tcf in 1973, Riva questioned not merely whether the EIA projected production of 25.5 tcf by 2015 could be met but even whether the then current output of 19.8 tcf could be maintained. Basing his analysis on the level of known reserves and the rate of new discoveries, Riva argued that unless an unprecedented number of large fields were found soon:
“by early next century, natural gas will have become more of an energy problem than an energy solution”.

Subsequent events have provided ample support for Riva’s grim assessment: (1) domestic NG production only reached 19.7 tcf in 2004 despite an additional 461 rigs in the field—an 82 % increase over 1997; (2) NG well head prices have steadily escalated from $2.10 mcf in 1998 to $ 6.31 mcf in the first four months of 2005 – an increase of $ 4.21 ( 200 %); and (3) chief U.S. policy makers (e.g., Alan Greenspan) now readily admit the nation cannot meet its NG supply needs and will be increasingly reliant on imports from politically unstable areas – darkly paralleling our current dependence on foreign areas and the entailing socioeconomic costs.