Not Getting Any Younger

[rffrydr]

Our demographics discussions have all been about "us."--the Japanese especially included. But as mentioned here before, other than the "correction" from the slaughter and famine of WWII we are living a fundamental change in the way makind "grows" in the world:


Byline: MARK TURNER

UNITED NATIONS -- The populations of the developing world are set for an unprecedented process of ageing over the next 40 years, according to figures released yesterday at the United Nations.

While policymakers in the developed world have for some time been bracing for the impact of fewer children and longer lifespans, the speed at which a similar trend is occurring in poorer countries has taken demographic experts by surprise, said Hania Zlotnik, a UN expert.

According to the 2006 revision of the UN's "World Population Prospects", the human race "is in the midst of an unprecedented transformation brought about by the transition from a regime of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility".

Europe, which boasts the world's oldest population, is set to age from a median of 39 years in 2005 to 47 years in 2050, according to a mid-range scenario.

But the trend in the developing world is even more dramatic, with the median age in Latin America rising from 26 to 40, and in Asia from 28 to 40. Even Africa, says the study, would see an increase from 19 years today to 28 years in 2050.

The UN predicts that the planet will probably host an extra 2.5bn people by 2050, rising from 6.7bn today to 9.2bn. The increase is equivalent to the world's entire population in 1950. Most of that growth will be absorbed by the less developed regions.

The numbers are a slight tweak from previous figures, but the most significant finding of the 2006 revision was the extent to which older people in today's third world would account for the increase.

"Between 2005 and 2050, half of the increase in the world population will be accounted for by a rise in the population aged 60 years or over," the UN said, "whereas the number of children will decline slightly."

In developing countries today, only 8 per cent of the population is more than 60 years old. But in 2050, assuming continued declines in fertility, that will reach 20 per cent. Globally, there will be three times more sexa-genarians than today.

The developing world's future 60-year-olds can also look forward to several more years of living, with life expectancy in the poorer parts of the world rising from 65 years today to 74 years by 2050.

The spread of HIV/Aids, however, remains a serious problem, and the UN said the number of countries with a significantly infected population had risen in its latest study.

In South Africa, for example, life expectancy fell from 62 years in the mid-1990s to 49 years now, and is not expected to regain former levels until 2045. Russia and Ukraine have also experienced serious increases in mortality partly because of the spread of HIV.

Source Citation: Turner, Mark. "Rapid ageing of developing world surprises UN experts POPULATION.(WORLD NEWS)." The Financial Times (March 14, 2007)
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Paradox of thrift. 3-4m jobs off the cycle lows....and 3m pushing up from below:




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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Mauldin looking ahead to the 2020 bust--which is strange as the echo-boomers will be hitting their stride by then.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2011/01/12/global-aging-and-the-crisis-of-the-2020s.aspx

[rffrydr]

India and China's other parabola is a heavy weight:


http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/01/seven-billion/kunzig-text
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Love the third presentation and the caveats at the end!

[rffrydr]

Come together:

http://www.economist.com/node/21013330
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!