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rffrydr
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 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 6:34 pm Post subject: Not So Fast |
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In a world of slow moving stats and even slower moving economies that China's growth may be half as big comes as an all- too-large surprise:
http://economist.com/finance/economicsfocus/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10209215
PPP, while on the right track is the wrong idea. Price of rice in China?
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Last edited by rffrydr on Tue Mar 02, 2010 2:42 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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...And, disguised in an inflationary veil, shows the consumer--of refrigerators:
| Quote: | Chinese shoppers
Sunday Jun 29 2008 13:15
Where are all the Chinese shoppers? Official numbers suggest domestic consumption is in fine fettle - retail sales grew by 22 per cent in the year to April - but cracks are appearing in discretionary spending.
Car sales have been falling month on month since April, according to CSM Worldwide, an automotive consultancy. Growth in domestic passenger traffic on flights is also decelerating; Air China, the flagship carrier, saw traffic slump nearly 11 per cent in the year to May. And port volume growth at the key terminals of Shanghai and Shenzhen has fallen to 11 per cent and 8 per cent respectively, according to Citigroup (NYSE:C) . That is half the levels of a year ago. Some caution is necessary. Car sales in particular are a volatile series and drivers could well be forgiven for deferring purchases at a time when refiners are keeping petrol pumps empty rather than sell the stuff at a loss (as a result of subsidies). Last month's earthquake and the snowstorms earlier this year are distorting factors - aircraft were diverted to join the rescue effort in Sichuan, for example.
Nonetheless, markers of ailing consumer sentiment point to three factors. First, inflation and currency appreciation are flattering official data - hence the 28 per cent year-on-year rise in May exports versus the more muted growth in numbers of containers passing through the ports. Second, Beijing's bias towards tighter monetary policy, in words if not in action, is starting to bite. Discretionary spending data are weaker in parts and household bank deposits are rebounding. Third, there is a bigger structural shift under way. Rural household incomes have been rising since 2000 and last year rose by 10 per cent, according to Macquarie. Discretionary spending at this level is more likely to mean a fridge rather than a smart new motor. China's shoppers are far from down and out. But there is more fatigue than headline numbers suggest. |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for posting that. As an aside, I found the following paragraph interesting as well. For now, this surely suggests that EM currencies (in general) have nowhere to go, but up, especially against the Euro and the Pound Sterling (yes, I'm biased):
| Quote: | | The difficulty of measuring PPP is one reason why some economists prefer to compare the sizes of economies using market exchange rates. After all, it is argued, countries trade with each other at market rates, so these provide the best basis for comparison. Measured this way, world growth over the past five years has been a still more modest 3.4%. Far from being the fastest pace for decades, that is slower than in the 1980s (see left-hand chart). So has the global boom been a mirage? A closer look at the numbers shows that this cannot be right. Measured at market exchange rates, emerging economies' share of global output last year was less than in 1980 (see right-hand chart), even though they have been growing more than twice as fast as the rich economies. The increase in their share of global energy consumption, from 43% in 1980 to 55% in 2006, also confirms that their weight in the world economy has surely risen. |
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