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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | One note from today’s data on deflation. The headline in the Wall Street Journal says
China grew at 6.1% last quarter. That doesn’t sound bad. But what was not in the story is that
nominal growth was just 3.7%. The other 2.4% was because of deflation. To get real (afterinflation)
growth you subtract inflation and/or add deflation. Growth in China is slowing down
more than the headlines suggest. |
--Mauldin
Note also: this is annualized, not quarter-on-quarter like "we" do.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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GaveKal notwithstanding (ore prices and shipping as much a contract timing and credit function) the slowdown applies its grip:
· McDonald’s has cut the price of its extra value meal in China to the lowest price in 10 years. The drop was as much as 21%. Price effective through at least march 10 and may be extended.
· Associated International Hotels is asking for rents at its new malls in Hong Kong’s Tsim Sha Tsui neighborhood as much as 30% lower than the mid 2008 peak.
· China’s Electricity Council said that there may be an oversupply of electricity this year due to weak demand. 80 gigawatts of capacity will be added. Demand for coal fired power plants with the rate of operation cut by 15%.
· China’s import price index dropped to 90 in December – lowest level since March 2002. Export index dropped to 105.1, which was the lowest in 2008.
· CSCO said that that Chinese orders fell 30% in Q2.
· Yum Brands lowered its profit sales forecast for China. It will rise 15-20% down from a prior projection of 20% -- remember they are expanding aggressively. January sales were said to be in line to slightly below expectations. Q4 mainland comparable store sales in China rose 1%
· December cargo stats from Chinese airports showed sequential volumes weak and year over year passenger and cargo volumes off 3.8%.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 10:00 am Post subject: |
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China Unicom reported GSM additions of 424,000. This is very low. Moreover, broad band subscribed fell 22,000.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: |
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This'll be a proud feather in my cap: 
| Quote: | Rumble in the jungle
Published: November 7 2008 09:18 | Last updated: November 7 2008 11:52
Turning around the runaway economic juggernaut of China, common wisdom had it, would be like turning around a super tanker. Actually, it transpires it is somewhat easier. China went from five years of 10 per cent-plus annual growth to 9 per cent in the third quarter. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index presages a steep decline to 5.5 per cent in the current quarter, Credit Suisse reckons. And the following quarter does not look much better, putting China on course for a level of deceleration last seen almost two decades ago.
A slew of data due next week will offer the first official read. Recent rhetoric from government officials about the impact of the weaker-than-expected global economy suggests the numbers could be ugly. With the fiscal flexibility many other cash-strapped governments can only envy, the Chinese authorities are taking action: Beijing is turning on the spigots and cranking up public spending.
There are two risks now. A quarter or two of sub 7 per cent growth, before the effects of government spending kicks in, could upset the social stability on which China’s political structure depends. China’s export growth is falling, but import growth is falling faster still, ratcheting up the trade surplus. Protectionist pressure overseas could rise. Meantime, the spectre of deflation hovers as food and commodity prices fall. In a worst case scenario both overseas and domestic buyers would be in short supply. Bankruptcies and bad loans would proliferate.
Second is the possibility that external shocks disguise a bigger structural change, in which case China’s days of double-digit growth are history. The late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping threw open China’s doors in 1978, proclaiming “to get rich is glorious”. Reforms of the state-owned sector, an influx of foreign investment and, latterly, entry to the World Trade Organisation saw China do just that. Sure, there is more to come. But absent the big catalysts, double-digit cyclical upswings become a tougher ask. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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Rings the bell at 9% growth. GM sales were telling in a car-loving evironment. Not great but good enough if they can peg it there for another six months.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: |
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The chinese have a saying: "extemes become their opposite."
| Quote: | At present, China's non-ferrous metal industry has a momentum of a slowdown growth after years of rapid growth. The reasons for the slower growth in the industry are as follows. Firstly, China's non-ferrous metal production and consumption accounts for about 30% of the global total, meaning that per capita consumption in China has surpassed the global average level. Secondly, cost continues to rise, and corporate profitability is declining after earlier rises, which gradually dampens the corporate enthusiasm for sustained fast growth in capacity expansion. Thirdly, extensive economic growth has led to a tight supply of resources and energy in China and China has continuously rolled out regulatory and control policies, which will help the industry change the growth mode with focus on capacity expansion, and step onto the path of sustained development.
It is forecast that China's output of non-ferrous metals will grow at a rate of around 10% in the period 2008-2010, even lower than 10%, and meanwhile growth rate of consumption will slow down accordingly. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:26 am Post subject: |
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After the (shocking if not for the Olympics) manufacturing stats policy starts to backpedal:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/35becba0-77bc-11dd-be24-0000779fd18c.html
This could have perverse conseqences with FDI. Now we'll see whether the long-promised chinese consumer having "stood-up" can stand up.
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rffrydr
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