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Numbers Game

 
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Author Numbers Game
rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:05 pm    Post subject: Numbers Game Reply with quote

Handicapping the economic stats. Not for us but interesting nonetheless.


http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/newsanalysis/optionsfutures/10319958.html

Testing the limits of markets within the markets themselves.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Story of One:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umyhZu6gXmQ

...and it's brother, zero...and the non-business, head-in-the-clouds culture that made that all possible.

ps Once you get used to the overuse of CGI.

Meanwhile in our own time we are up to 24 zeros:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/big-data-0
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2011 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rocktober:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/31/716676/a-historian’s-view-of-the-uk-stock-market/
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Italy on per/capita debt basis beats us too.

U.S. hot-rolled coil steel have fallen from a high of $888. China, you own us.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GDP ratios barely scratch the surface. On a more direct wealth comparison, Italy is over Germany:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000037057
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Only bullish thing I can find right now, SP 500 market down 6.66%! Twisted Evil

Apple performed, KO outperformed....and good little Kansas City Life is just positive after five days, vs. 12% down market. Thank god for small favors!
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Intraday low for SPX cash was... 1234.56
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More than 100,000 Americans have five or more SSNs associated with their name.
More than 15 percent of SSNs are associated with two or more people.
More than 140,000 SSNs are associated with five or more people.
More than 27,000 SSNs are associated with 10 or more people.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38678753
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PostPosted: Thu May 20, 2010 6:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dow down 66.6 yesterday to 10444. Doomed?

DAX opened at 5999; looking to close at 5888.
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PostPosted: Thu May 13, 2010 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Accounting's "rules of thumb":

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/13/229611/ten-easy-lessons-in-cooking-the-books/
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An update for those of a conspiratorial bent:

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/true-or-false-u-s-economic-stats-lie/?page=all

I'm down with this one:

Quote:
Finally, in 1999 the BLS began using what it calls hedonic adjustments. Williams explains the approach with a dash of sarcasm: “That new washing machine you bought did not cost you 20% more than it would have cost you last year, because you got an offsetting 20% increase in the pleasure you derive from pushing its new electronic control buttons instead of turning that old noisy dial.” He calls the impact on CPI “substantial.” Greenlees says the name “hedonic” was an unfortunate choice, since the technique has little to do with making judgments about pleasure. It’s designed to measure the quality difference between goods when one is discontinued and must be replaced in the index with another that’s not quite the same. Adjustments can push the index in either direction, but Greenlees says the overall impact since the change has been a tiny increase in the CPI -- about 0.005% a year. Williams says some hedonic adjustments are indeed necessary, like when the size of a box of crackers changes from 12 ounces to 10 ounces. But more theoretical adjustments, he says, “overstate the quality of what the public is buying."

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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2009 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Come fall, this should punctuate the stat recovery:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/14/stimulus-spending-employment-business-washington-gdp.html

But by then the housing floor should be well established and longer ranging stimulus money actually providing same. Depending on the market this should make for one of the better examples of "self-fulfilling" prophecies.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hang Seng closes at 18999--a popular number over this last month.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=HHAZ06
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buy and Hold.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Me be missing out. Still on a quest to simplify the processes ... figuring out what to ignore and still make money ...
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That was a great analysis - especially the last insight about what revisions can do to market movements. Very Happy

If you're not watching these numbers, you're missing out...

Henry
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