Oil Consumption update

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:17 am Post subject: Oil Consumption update

The IEA has raised its forecast for 2007 world oil demand growth following revisions to its outlook for China. Growth forecasts for 2007 were raised to 1.55 million barrels per day from 1.39 million bpd in the previous estimate. Overall Chinese consumption is now estimated at 7.6 million bpd in 2007, up from 7.1 million bpd in 2006. Supply from non-OPEC producers was revised down by 70,000 bpd for 2007 to 50.5 million bpd, with growth expected to amount to 1.1 million bpd. “There is a possibility
that over the first half we could see a significant tightening of crude supplies,” the IEA said.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 6:17 pm Post subject:

Nat Gas may be falling on the floor but wholesale gas is up 30 cents in two weeks on short-covering into driving season: not to worry, chinese supply on the way:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/05/166281/refinery-slowdown-china-edition/

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 9:26 am Post subject:

No surprise if you've ever seen the ferraris lined up at HK airport storage. A ferrari in Hong Kong! 4am on the new bridge is the only time you could drive it outside the track!

The chinese are moving from the "chauffeur class" to the "middle class"--modeled on europe. The car is an extension of the weekend--or more to the point, the deal. And that includes driving around the mother-in-law.

The real numbers however are in the tiny (teeny) little rural farm fleet of minitrucks as policy steers money to the hinterlands and Mao's "rototiller for any purpose" finally gets supplanted. It's cars vs. crops in reverse this time!
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HenryTo · Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 1:46 am Post subject:

A new twist on the Chinese oil demand dilemma. The Chinese are buying private vehicles - lots of them. In fact, Chinese sales of automobiles will top 13 million vehicles this year, ahead of the US. And yet, the Chinese are not driving their cars.

According to GaveKal, the Chinese stock of automobiles increased by 300% from January 2005 to the present - yet gasoline (i.e. petrol) demand only increased by 32% in the same timeframe. GaveKal pins the dilemma down to three reasons: Higher fuel economy, higher (market) gasoline prices, and cheaper and more efficient public transportation (at least in Shanghai).

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:58 am Post subject:

Yes, the subsidy discount in the context of record prices has created shortages. Net imports however have been flat now for two months.
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chestnutstime · Senior Poster Joined: 24 Oct 2007 Posts: 89

CHINA is running out of fuel. Police are guarding petrol stations in several inland provinces to prevent fights, as shortages of petrol and diesel are causing huge queues of trucks, buses and cars.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22832180-25837,00.html

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:46 am Post subject:

Asian demand its own worst enemy.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1102/p06s01-woap.html?page=2
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 6:45 pm Post subject:

Meanwhile panic as diesel is hoarded and prices wait for another "revaluation."

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/china/article743320.ece

Hoarding like this really did damage to the cotton market back in '94. Refiners have been instructed to hold the price for which they will be compensated.....sometitme. Not yet.
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Rubedo · Veteran Poster Joined: 16 Sep 2007 Posts: 168

That's funny. If they want oil to drop, maybe they should stop buying so many cars.

Oct. 16, 2007 -- Auto sales in China, the world's second largest car market, soared in the first nine months of the year to 4.58 million units, a 24% increase from a year ago, state media reported Oct. 15.

Sales of passenger vehicles in September rose 17% from the previous month to 561,000 units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Meanwhile, sales of sedan cars leaped 26% to 3.44 million units for the January to September period while sports utility vehicles rose 52% to 251,700 and multi-purpose vehicles were up 21% to 165,300 units.

Volkswagen's China joint venture -- FAW Volkswagen -- was the top seller, selling 684,786 units, the report said. Shanghai Volkswagen, the firms other venture with SAIC, was behind with US's General Motors ranking third. Fast-growing domestic automobile company Chery took fourth spot.

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 7:25 am Post subject:

Crude hurts: rare meeting between Chinese and OPEC

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKPEK7107420071024
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Rubedo · Veteran Poster Joined: 16 Sep 2007 Posts: 168

IEA warns on falling oil inventories
By Javier Blas in London

Published: October 11 2007 15:04 | Last updated: October 11 2007 15:04

The International Energy Agency, the western countries' energy
watchdog, on Thursday warned of rapidly falling crude oil and products
inventories ahead of the peak demand winter season.

The watchdog said that supplies will get "tighter this winter" as
developed countries' inventories fell at the end of August to below
the five-years average, to 53.5 days of forward consumption.
Inventories were at 55 days on demand in the second quarter.

"Those stocks are clearly tighter than they have been for some time,
but what is driving market expectations and therefore prices is the
lack of confidence that they will be replenished," the IEA said.

The watchdog has asked the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries, the oil cartel, to boost its supplies to build up
inventories. Crude oil and products inventories usually build in the
third quarter ahead of the winter, but so far they have fall by
360,000 barrels a day.

"In other words, high prices are a rational result of current market
conditions and expected future fundamentals," the IEA said.

Opec, which controls about 40 per cent of the world's oil output,
agreed last month to increase its production by 500,000 b/d in
November. But the IEA and other analyst said the move was "too little,
too late."

The IEA kept roughly unchanged its forecast for oil demand in spite of
record high prices and slowing economic growth in the US and other
developed countries.

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:50 am Post subject:

Crude imports up only 1.5% 3.2 MPD, weakest in 5mos. 12 refineries reducing imports based on price caps.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:04 am Post subject:

Actually developing countries more "attuned" to an oil economy are still consuming more but we get the point.

The culture of self-reliance has heavily shaped chinese oil. Once state companies attain a certain size this begins to take it's toll--says EXXON:

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/sep2007/gb20070921_807412.htm?chan=globalbiz_asia+index+page_asia+investing
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:22 am Post subject:

China and India leading the charge in renewed crude demand--despite record prices. Change happens "at the margin" as they say. IEA calls for Opec push to "save" second quarter--despite record inventories here in US. How much are the Seven Sisters leaving on the table?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/46120380-3115-11dc-891f-0000779fd2ac.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:21 am Post subject:

Chinese Oil Demand grew by only 3.4% in Mar to 6.73 mb/d. Implied oil demand fell to 6.77 mb/d from 6.80 mb/d in the first two months of the year.
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2007 11:25 pm Post subject:

Will stagger reserve purchases and not chase high prices. 2010/30 days:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3994d30c-f0ed-11db-838b-000b5df10621.html
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