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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
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 Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 8:33 am Post subject: |
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Japanese triggered WWII on oil grab in SE Asia and their national obsession with efficiency is driven by this lack (the origins of the Six-Sigma asembly-line model). Although technology and demographics, as well as past investment, has lessened this exposure, hard assets are the achilles heel of this region.
The rush into emerging markets AND/AS hard assets will prove it's own undoing: Yes one follows the other; And one follows another. Booming oil brings its own bust. Compound leverage (industrial investment) with leverage (govt. subsidized prices) and you have......subprime syndrome all over again. Keep watching the carries:
| Quote: | Asian oil subsidies
Published: December 4 2007 09:22 | Last updated: December 4 2007 09:22
Plus ça change. In recent years, Asian governments have scrapped or relaxed fuel subsidies and liberalised controlled pricing regimes – but the region still squeaks loudest when oil prices rise.
Part of that is simply greater consumption. The Energy Information Administration estimates that the energy consumption of developing Asia will grow on average by 3.2 per cent a year until 2030, outstripping every other part of the world. But the fact that governments are still writing big cheques shows how modest deregulation really has been. Indonesia, in some ways a poster child for subsidy reform when it more than doubled fuel prices two years ago, will still fork out an extra $4bn in November and December, if oil prices stay around $90 a barrel. India has actually gone backwards, offering more in terms of diesel subsidies than it did in 2005, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Subsidies result in any number of distortions; thanks to corruption and cross-border arbitrage, many do not even reach the correct target. But even if crude oil crosses $100 a barrel Asian policy-makers are unlikely to do much more than tweak prices gently upwards, as witnessed in China and Taiwan. For one thing, high fuel prices can foment social unrest, Burma being the latest example. Inflation is another consideration. Indonesian inflation averaged 16 per cent the year Jakarta ditched subsidies, while in Malaysia consumer prices peaked after regulated petrol prices were hiked in February last year. Higher fuel prices would immediately feed into food prices, already at the forefront of consumer price hikes, and could subsequently spill over into wage inflation. This is of particular concern to China, where inflation is at 11 year highs. Asian governments, several of which face elections, will seek to shield consumers as much as possible – and will be grateful that their stronger currencies partially mitigate the higher dollar prices. |
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2007 8:03 am Post subject: |
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Japaenese starting to get nostalgic about a strong Yen. Inflation is becoming a cost vs. benefit (e.g. the real message of FedEX this week and OILS previously):
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d4d9b7f2-917d-11dc-9590-0000779fd2ac.html
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 16444
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:56 am Post subject: |
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More than a few Indians are loving record crude. They should be careful what they wish for:
http://www.domain-b.com/industry/oil_gas/20071103_why.html
| Quote: | Help Mukesh Ambani retain his world's richest crown
I am serious. Record oil prices have helped Mukesh Ambani to perform feats that are unparalleled in the history of market capitalism anywhere in the world - something we Indians should be proud of. Like for instance, getting a $25 billion valuation for a company - Reliance Petroleum - that is still in the process of building its refinery. Its current valuation is nearly four times the total project cost! This is at a time when most global refiners are reporting declining margins. Don't be shocked if you hear a market rumour that gold could be a by-product of oil refining, but only from the Reliance refinery!
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