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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:56 am Post subject: |
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More than a few Indians are loving record crude. They should be careful what they wish for:
http://www.domain-b.com/industry/oil_gas/20071103_why.html
| Quote: | Help Mukesh Ambani retain his world's richest crown
I am serious. Record oil prices have helped Mukesh Ambani to perform feats that are unparalleled in the history of market capitalism anywhere in the world - something we Indians should be proud of. Like for instance, getting a $25 billion valuation for a company - Reliance Petroleum - that is still in the process of building its refinery. Its current valuation is nearly four times the total project cost! This is at a time when most global refiners are reporting declining margins. Don't be shocked if you hear a market rumour that gold could be a by-product of oil refining, but only from the Reliance refinery!
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2007 8:03 am Post subject: |
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Japaenese starting to get nostalgic about a strong Yen. Inflation is becoming a cost vs. benefit (e.g. the real message of FedEX this week and OILS previously):
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d4d9b7f2-917d-11dc-9590-0000779fd2ac.html
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 8:33 am Post subject: |
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Japanese triggered WWII on oil grab in SE Asia and their national obsession with efficiency is driven by this lack (the origins of the Six-Sigma asembly-line model). Although technology and demographics, as well as past investment, has lessened this exposure, hard assets are the achilles heel of this region.
The rush into emerging markets AND/AS hard assets will prove it's own undoing: Yes one follows the other; And one follows another. Booming oil brings its own bust. Compound leverage (industrial investment) with leverage (govt. subsidized prices) and you have......subprime syndrome all over again. Keep watching the carries:
| Quote: | Asian oil subsidies
Published: December 4 2007 09:22 | Last updated: December 4 2007 09:22
Plus ça change. In recent years, Asian governments have scrapped or relaxed fuel subsidies and liberalised controlled pricing regimes – but the region still squeaks loudest when oil prices rise.
Part of that is simply greater consumption. The Energy Information Administration estimates that the energy consumption of developing Asia will grow on average by 3.2 per cent a year until 2030, outstripping every other part of the world. But the fact that governments are still writing big cheques shows how modest deregulation really has been. Indonesia, in some ways a poster child for subsidy reform when it more than doubled fuel prices two years ago, will still fork out an extra $4bn in November and December, if oil prices stay around $90 a barrel. India has actually gone backwards, offering more in terms of diesel subsidies than it did in 2005, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Subsidies result in any number of distortions; thanks to corruption and cross-border arbitrage, many do not even reach the correct target. But even if crude oil crosses $100 a barrel Asian policy-makers are unlikely to do much more than tweak prices gently upwards, as witnessed in China and Taiwan. For one thing, high fuel prices can foment social unrest, Burma being the latest example. Inflation is another consideration. Indonesian inflation averaged 16 per cent the year Jakarta ditched subsidies, while in Malaysia consumer prices peaked after regulated petrol prices were hiked in February last year. Higher fuel prices would immediately feed into food prices, already at the forefront of consumer price hikes, and could subsequently spill over into wage inflation. This is of particular concern to China, where inflation is at 11 year highs. Asian governments, several of which face elections, will seek to shield consumers as much as possible – and will be grateful that their stronger currencies partially mitigate the higher dollar prices. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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Asia sells off with once powerful airlines leading:
In Shanghai, airline stocks paced losses on fears about rising fuel costs on the back of record high crude oil prices. Shares of China Southern Airlines sank 8.6%, while China Eastern Airlines shed 5.1%.
Yen at "parity" on futures markets and taking the brunt of it.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: |
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And so it goes: GaveKal questioning their long-term committment,
| Quote: | One of the reasons that led us to move to Hong Kong in 2002 was our
conviction that the following decade would see, thanks to rising exchange
rates, rising employment and falling real interest rates, a sharp increase
in the purchasing power of Asian consumers. And to a large degree, this has
occurred. However if anything is testing that belief today, it is the
soaring cost of basic staples. Indeed, when we see that the Philippines’
rice import bill will likely eclipse its defense budget this year, or that
China is suffering gasoline shortages because refiners are bucking against
crippling price controls, it is hard not to get edgy and wonder about the
toll that the various subsidies dished out by the governments will take on
fiscal positions around the region. |
While the Korean army misses its bath:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed98e766-fa0c-11dc-9b7c-000077b07658.html
Depite (or because of it) the two-year backlog on everything from GE's turbines to coal locomotives don't look East for salvation.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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China no doubt watching Malaysia, the populace. Shortages from ever increasing smuggling and inefficent transfers may force their hand in the end regardless of budget.
Super-spikes in Oil, unlike all other commoidities, is deflationary. It WILL be a leading indicator of business activity...down. It's that 70's Show--in Asia. Crude is everything but it's important to remember it is also everything in Transportation. China may run 70% on coal but it's oil that gets the stuff it needs to where it has to go. And it's oil that the consumer makes his peace with on a daily level.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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Is this a positive or negative for "the world's factory"? From Mauldin's latest:
| Quote: | The US trade deficit is roughly where it has been for four years, running in the neighborhood of 6% of GDP. Only a few years ago, less than 30% of that was for oil. Now, that has changed. Roughly 60% of our trade deficit is spent on oil, much of it sadly going to countries that are not necessarily our friends.
The US consumer has cut his spending on non-oil items by almost 40% in terms of GDP over the past few years, and the trend is clearly down every quarter. |
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Suomodo
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: |
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Latest C.O.T from Friday is still rather neutral for Oil ...
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/cot/CRUDE_OIL.htm
Commercials added to their slightly net long positions, small speculators added to their net short, large speculators unchanged slighly net long.....
Not consistent with "speculators bubble theory" and these indicators are not bearish for Oil...difficult to admit they are bullish 
Paulson might get it right and supply/demand has to solve the issue ... spiking in Oil still possible should the small speculators unwind their positions ... |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: |
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Those categories in the COT are now fully scrambled. See "Simons" under "Peak Oil." Don't use.
| Quote: | | Using resources efficiently is going to become much more important for sustainable growth, something China has paid little attention to in its impressive economic drive. It's noticeable that the Nikkei has also been outperforming recently, with one explanation being that analysts are upbeat on the potential for Japan to see a lot more sales of its energy-efficient machinery across Asia. |
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commodity-inflation-piles-pain-asia/story.aspx?guid=%7B72E8F25A%2D1221%2D4163%2D898E%2D736C621A3A61%7D
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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India took in 20billion boomtime FDI last fiscal year. Their oil imports went from 69billion to 120.
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