Oversold Rally

Gizmo · Posted: Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:09 pm Post subject: Oversold Rally

Charts indicate an oversold rally may be imminent. There is a Bradley turn on 03/29 and I think that will be a low. Another turn has been forecast for 04/04 which I think will be a high. Only playing this with a 20% position if we do indeed spike lower on Tues. AM.

An inverted chart of the Ndx. Looking for a move to 1500-1502 to initiate shorts and close long position. Cool

[img]http://www.msnusers.com/_Secure/0QwAHH5AUU8MZ1LbNuseQ91F7ANW6d7KwUGfk5IcuUgUcX28iTVpljU5Yp2JTvbBp6pSpSB1zhFXb*CVyqQyaoO0RW3HTWrXnZ0!ZlDmrKSQ/flagging.jpg?dc=4675515454595516165[/img]
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Gizmo

Dubious · Senior Poster Joined: 26 Mar 2005 Posts: 142

Gizmo,

I agree with the 8K on the DOW. I also believe it will take a long time for it to get near 11K again. I believe this next little "downturn" will turn off most people for a long time to the stock market - that are left. The dot com idiots are in the housing bubble. I believe we will not see anything near where we are now in the DOW until the year 2015 - when the next load of suckers boards the TITANTIC.

Very Happy

Dubious · Senior Poster Joined: 26 Mar 2005 Posts: 142

Remember on this job report there are 100,000 jobs "magically added" due to seasonality. They have set the bar so low it is actually pretty sad when it misses.

Change hamburger making jobs to manufactoring jobs. What a crock?

Remember the last job report at 266K last month. The market figured out on Monday that was actually a negative number with all the "pull the rabbit out of the hat" called "hedious". The real job number was (24,0000). I believe the market will not get tricked this Friday if that happens again. It may really at the open but if the number is not a good one we can see the rally on the open, sell off at the close.

The rally at the open sell off at the close is called "chopping the legs off" that is what the big guys due to suck people to put money into their mutual funds (they do not want to miss the next rally). Rally it strong then cut it off. That is like Bear Market 101. If you know how to short the indexes at lunch you can get a quick 1% day after day after day. Very Happy

. I love bear markets....

Dubious

Gizmo · Posted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:28 pm Post subject:

Dubious,

The Market rarely rewards buy the news, ala jobs reports. The move is reversed in short order. The market rewards anticipation and it's inherent risks. If the week goes as I think...buy a gap low Tues and sell the news Friday I'll be looking to short the NDX the 1st week of April.

Good luck in your trading.
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Gizmo

Gizmo · Posted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:18 pm Post subject:

HenryTo,

I suspect the Bradley has become well enough known and enough are following it that it's prophecy may be self fulfilling...at least for now.

I don't think it's fadable yet... I have noticed that sometimes there is simply an acceleration of the existing trend though.

The big questions in my mind are is the 4 year cycle high in? I suspect so on the Nasdaq and Spx, possibly not on the Dow. I believe we see an 8000 Dow and 800 Spx by 10/2006, if not even lower.

And is the 5th wave complete in Elliot Wave terms?

The next rally should complete the story. Most likely a right shoulder will be built on the NYSE Indices and hard down after, as seasonal money withdraws to the Hamptons <ggg>.
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Gizmo

Dubious · Senior Poster Joined: 26 Mar 2005 Posts: 142

HenryTo,

I agree. The next rally will probably be on April 1 - and suck people in over the weekend like the last job report. The Monday after the last job report was pretty painful for those who went long.

I believe it is not playable on the long side but you may want to take your shorts off (in a matter of speaking) Thursday prior to the market close and put them back on again Monday morning

Dubious

HenryTo · Posted: Sat Mar 26, 2005 10:31 am Post subject: the Bradley

Gizmo,

Interesting that you mentioned the Bradley. The last major Bradley signal in late January was right to the day and it should not be ignored. However, in a general sense, the fact that a stock market indicator worked very well last time will most likely render it obsolete at least in the near-term. Remember Don Hays' ARMS Index indicator in April 2001? It worked very well - it was then well-publicized - and then it stopped working for nearly the next two years.

I definitely think there will be a bounce coming in the near-term - especially since we have a Bradley turn signal on 3/29. Given the mediocre action of last Thursday, however, it will probably not be a playable bounce and it will most probably end very shortly, like you said. I definitely don't think we are going to new highs.

We will see. Hopefully, I won't be eating my own words in the next couple of months! Very Happy

Dubious · Senior Poster Joined: 26 Mar 2005 Posts: 142

Gizmo,

I agree we are grossly oversold and ripe for a rally to squeeze the shorts. Lots of economic data out next week. I believe a rally is possible on Friday after the job report (like last month). This is another month were "100,000" jobs are magically added for seasonality sake to the "report".

What are your thoughts??

Dubious

Gizmo · Posted: Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:58 pm Post subject:

DJIA. Annotated.

http://www.msnusers.com/_Secure/0QgCOApsTKIjx7I2eImeqSEpL0oAMDXVQKZgHRy4R45BulSBVVggPJi6OJIpZGgKb2GKUf3hZUqSheNxILOjOu3mKzgv15t0il2CX4ZLs4LY/indu325.jpg?dc=4675515508512854199
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Gizmo

Gizmo · Posted: Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:18 pm Post subject:

Try this . LOL

http://www.msnusers.com/_Secure/0QwAHH5AUU8MZ1LbNuseQ91F7ANW6d7KwUGfk5IcuUgUcX28iTVpljU5Yp2JTvbBp6pSpSB1zhFXb*CVyqQyaoO0RW3HTWrXnZ0!ZlDmrKSQ/flagging.jpg?dc=4675515454595516165
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Gizmo