Peak Oil?

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:24 pm Post subject: Peak Oil?

Dear all,

I would like to start a discussion/argument on the validity of the Peak Oil theorists on this board. One of my subscribers had asked me to do this - and I believe it will be a very well worthwhile discussion!

I know there has been a lot of literature written about this - including recent books - but one thing that I find lacking is the fact that many of the commentators talk about the industry in VERY BROAD terms. That is, economists who are working with questionable data - questionable because of the lack of transparency in the oil markets, not because it is their fault.

I feel that Matt Simmons had done a great job in his efforts to focus on the Saudi oil machine. He spent an entire book just writing about the Saudi oil industry, and makes a very good argument which discredits the Saudis' claims that they can ramp up to 15 mm barrels a day in a few years. In all likelihood, he argues, Saudi oil output has peaked or is near peaking. We need similar analyses for the Russian oil industry, the North Sea, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil production.

Going forward, this author is bullish on the price of oil in the long-run, as I believe oil demand growth in both China and India will surpass the ability of the world to pump more oil - given current constraints and the lack of new, impressive discoveries.

I would definitely like everyone to chime in.

Best,

Henry

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 1:43 pm Post subject:

Crude can't hang. Last inventory data showed 3% drop in gas consumption as we, once again, just say no. Chevron and Exxon, big contributors to the Dow early are now big drags. And this was the trend just BEFORE the breakdown in europe. Won't get going 'til gold joins in but hard assets taking a smack at long last.

So...using the old-timey calculus, which could easily under- or overstate, $25 down in crude equals $100B-$130B stimulus Laughing

Of course its gotta happen at the right time--but it is still summer Idea

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:35 pm Post subject:

http://im.media.ft.com/content/images/ca66ff86-a1ab-11e0-b9f9-00144feabdc0.img
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:41 am Post subject:

Wonder if the market realizes that the two great sinkholes of subsidized gasoline, Iran and China, are rapidly disappearing. Ironically, sanctions did the trick in Iran.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 7:31 am Post subject:

RTH sure liked it. Funny the long line of oil commentators saying what a bad idea this was. Just putting two-way risk back into the market is an achievement of its own. This is more true than ever as there the market now is fully supplied. So it's not really about the supply of oil after all.

From the broker:

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 12:29 am Post subject:

Half of which comes from the U.S.--but is effectively a "liquidity release" of only US$6 billion or so--not enough to move the dial, even if it causes oil prices to decline a few percentage points.

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:49 am Post subject:

Finally! When you have a standing army in the MidEast for Christ's sake when better to use your own oil? The SPR after all was a key part of the big squeeze up to these levels in the first place. Was thinking SPR was forgotten and then they unveiled the (failied) plan to swap out the light sweet for heavy Saudi oil. That seemed brilliant. Let the news marinate for a while and now just dump some. Good for the budget, good for economy and good for the world. Dreaded XOM to 200dma in store but it's 15 min in and already beneficiaries are bouncing back.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43508255
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HenryTo · Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:25 am Post subject:

XOM finds 700 million barrels of oil equivalent in the Gulf of Mexico:

http://www.worldoil.com/ExxonMobil_makes_one_of_largest_oil_discoveries_in_GOM_with_deepwater_exploration_well.html?LS=EMS536624

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2011 6:40 am Post subject:

Discord in OPEC universally reported as bullish--and $70-80 policy shown to be a fiction. Yet that assumes what we've come to assume of OPEC. The other possibility is that OPEC is broken again (mirror image of 1998) and the Saudis will bring it back together by hook AND by crook:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/09/589251/re-inventing-opec/

Don't miss the comments.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:06 am Post subject:

Where's there's gold, sell them shovels:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-06/frontline-billionaire-fredriksen-bets-tankers-collapsing-freight-markets.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 10:00 pm Post subject:

OPEC may dress up their overproduction with a quota bump. They're getting pressure. Latest OPEC numbers for May show that they are currently producing 26.22 mb/d, which is 1.375 mb/d above their quota of 24.845 mb/d. Be something the news might run with.
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat May 28, 2011 7:26 am Post subject:

Fracking for crude, it's on:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/business/energy-environment/28shale.html?_r=1&hp
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed May 25, 2011 6:39 pm Post subject:

The sun is a non-renewable resource--it's just a question of when. Wudda- cudda-shudda been May 21st, but that's been put off a bit. Twisted Evil

Goldman is back to $130 crude citing Libya and the lack of OPEC spare capacity. Saudis put together a libyian blend--and nobody came. We'll just have to put it off a bit.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed May 25, 2011 8:32 am Post subject:

Gasoline dousing the fire. Back-to-back huge builds.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue May 24, 2011 11:05 pm Post subject:

Royal Dutch Shell, whose reserve crunch started this all off, has now replaced ALL of those reserves.....at $3/barrel. Throw in another $10 to pump it and you have a new definition of Peak Oil.
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

Probably said this before, but could we change the name of the thread to "Non-Peak Oil" or something similar?

After all, we have 2x the proven reserves we had 30 years ago and 2010 was the most world oil production ever!

Oh, and Iraq ... still hasn't topped its 1989 "pre-Gulf-War-I" production levels. I think today's production levels are still below 1980 "pre-Iran-War" levels ...
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