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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:02 am Post subject: |
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Failed talks with Iran and a potential hurricane in the Gulf; crude up 3.00...the first good news we've had in a long, long time.
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HenryTo
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chestnutstime
Experienced Poster
Joined: 24 Oct 2007
Posts: 66
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| Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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Arctic has 90bn barrels of crude
| Quote: | | The US Geological Survey believes the Arctic holds 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil, while 1,669,000bn cubic feet of natural gas is equivalent to 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered gas reserves. |
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8b73777a-58e1-11dd-a093-000077b07658.html
Chestnut |
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
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| Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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Once again, crude is out there to be found....behind governments.
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Rubedo
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Joined: 16 Sep 2007
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Suomodo
Veteran Poster
Joined: 21 Mar 2008
Posts: 165
Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
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| Posted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 5:17 am Post subject: |
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In the latest Commitment of traders report the commercials are slightly net long since June, there is no major change in their positions, the problem is the pension funds are includied in this heading now with so far unlimited positions... fogging the picture
The large speculators are net neutral and small speculators who have were bearish month ago are now less bearish i.e. slightly net short..
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/cot/CRUDE_OIL.htm
Due to the dimmed picture of who is who since the Oil bubble started is this indicator for now obscure to me.. |
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HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7251
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiRH.rMQskL0&refer=home
| Quote: | Bush spent the months leading up to the five-week congressional break pressing lawmakers to lift restrictions on offshore oil drilling and develop oil-shale sources in the Rocky Mountain states. The U.S. Interior Department estimates the areas now off-limits may hold 17.8 billion barrels of oil.
Democrats say Bush's plan would endanger the environment and other options are available. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has challenged the president to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and has pressed oil companies to drill on 68 million acres of federal land they already lease from the government.
Polls this year have shown more public support for expanded domestic oil exploration as the price of gasoline has jumped. With Congress unlikely to agree on an energy plan, Republicans are making clear drilling will be a pivotal topic in the election campaign. |
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HenryTo
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Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPzPz.br6VbU&refer=home
| Quote: | "What I don't want to do is for the best to be the enemy of the good,'' Obama, a senator from Illinois, said at a news conference today in Cape Canaveral, Florida. ``If we can come up with a general bipartisan compromise in which I have to accept some things I don't like, then that's something I'm open to.''
Along with the drilling provision, the preliminary plan offers incentives for cleaner cars and electricity.
The measure, announced yesterday by five Republican and five Democratic senators, would allow Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia to open waters beyond 50 miles (80 kilometers) to drilling. It would repeal tax breaks for oil companies and devote $20 billion to converting cars and trucks to run on alternative fuels. |
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HenryTo
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Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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Boom times in North Dakota:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/08/05/oil.boomtown/
| Quote: | The town sits in an area known as the Bakken Formation, a vast region below North Dakota, Montana and a portion of Canada that the U.S. Geological Survey says contains between 3 billion and 4.3 billion barrels of oil.
The continual amount of oil in North Dakota is three times as much as Texas," says Kevin Frederick, a geologist in the region. "We're doing as much as we can to try and get it out."
Mayor Hynek says the region is so flush with oil that it's nearly impossible for an oil well to come up dry. Standing in the middle of a downtown street, he says, "I'm fairly certain that if they drilled a well here, they'd have oil." |
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dknoester
Veteran Poster
Joined: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 151
Location: Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Reuters |
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Big CFTC data revision raises oil traders' eyebrows
http://tinyurl.com/6fy4tf
DK
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BlueDaze
Experienced Poster
Joined: 22 Nov 2006
Posts: 76
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| Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:11 am Post subject: Peak Oil |
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The Coming Oil Supply Crunch
Chatham House Report
Paul Stevens, August 2008
http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/download/-/id/652/file/11937_0808oilcrunch.pdf
This report argues that unless there is a collapse in oil demand within the next five to ten years, there will be a serious oil 'supply crunch' - not because of below-ground resource constraints but because of inadequate investment by international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs).
An oil supply crunch is where excess crude producing capacity falls to low levels and is followed by a crude 'outage' leading to a price spike. If this happens then the resulting price spike will carry serious policy implications with long-lasting effects on the global energy picture. |
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 6708
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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Born on the 4th of July:
| Quote: | Oil's Fall: Econ 101
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
8/11/2008 9:04 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW
Nigerian rebels, Iranian saber-rattling, potential Israel-Iran war, hurricane warnings, Venezuelan meddling, Turkish pipelines, BP woes in Russia, all of these at one time have allegedly contributed to the strong oil price. Every time we rallied a couple of bucks, the usual suspects were rounded up and given credit for the rally.
And then the biggest actual ruckus of all -- a war between major oil producer Russia and Georgia -- rages on, and oil cascades lower into the escalation. LOWER! If this incursion were to rank with the parade of horribles that allegedly spurred oil from $90 to $148, it would be off the charts. It is the real deal that can interrupt pipelines and cause a calamity in the European market. It should have sent natural gas -- the Europeans live off Russian natural gas -- into the stratosphere, as it should have caused hoarding and a spike even here for recognition that no liquefied natural gas could come here because it would be needed so badly in Europe.
So why didn't it? From the beginning, I have said this is all economics: Supply wasn't able to meet demand. Supply wasn't constant -- it keeps dropping everywhere except Saudi Arabia -- but more important, demand did not slow down until the peak hit; at that point, which produced gasoline well above $4, we stopped using. We slowed driving incredibly. We carpooled, stopped taking excessive trips, turned in the SUVs and wiped out the most popular category of automobiles -- trucks -- overnight. Since Memorial Day, the wholesale shift has made it so the Valeros and the Tesoros have nowhere to put gasoline and little demand.
In other words, all the canards of terrorism and disruption were no more than canards. The demand destruction, to use the cliché that has taken over the airwaves, was monumental and stopped the oil rally in its tracks.
Sure, there were changes in the margin rules, and the dollar rallied, but the dollar stopped going down a while ago -- during the oil spike, actually -- so that didn't seem to matter much either. It was supply and demand.
That meant those who had made a bet on higher oil prices now had to exit the trade to avoid being wiped out. In other words, profit-taking. Don't believe it? Look at how many people had to exit the stocks. The commodity was even more chockablock with investors who weren't indexing but just getting it right. They are still liquidating and just praying for a couple up days so they can unload.
I don't think they will get more than a smattering.
It's funny, we don't hear "linkage" now, do we? We don't, because there really never was any. We just finally got enough oil in the pipe and finally got to where the buyers went on strike.
That's what happened. Nothing more. They are still on strike. That means they still go lower.
Random musings: Speaking of too much supply, how about the PetroHawk secondary. Just what the market needed! Ugh. Too bad, because if you go read the Devon conference call, it is spewing cash almost as fast as it is spewing oil. It is selling for $16 a share of proven reserves.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Devon. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 9:36 am Post subject: |
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Hedge funds repositioning themselves into a net short position in crude oil, increased their long position in the USD, and sharply reduced their short position in the Russell 2000:
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Hedge funds reposition themselves in futures markets - SocGen
The alternatives vehicles are moving into net short positions on crude oil.
LONDON (Thomson IM) - As turbulence in global markets continues a number of major trends are emerging in the hedge fund space around speculative positions in the futures markets.
Societe Generale highlights these trends in its bi-monthly Hedge Fund Watch, including net short positions initiated in crude oil by hedge funds.
'With crude oil prices falling below $120 a barrel for the first time in three months on Aug 4, amid concerns that a slowing global economy was weighing on demand for fuel, speculative positions are now a slight net short,' Societe Generale said.
It added, hedge funds are increasingly net short on natural gas since its price peak in early July.
'With the U.S. dollar rebounding and oil prices well below their record high, gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation has diminished; so have speculative net long positions,' SocGen said.
Other trends include a maintaining of net long positions on the S&P 500 and a sharp cut in net short positions on the Russell 2000, due to a combination of rapid decline in oil prices and relatively positive earnings reports.
'Speculative positions on volatility (on the VIX index) are almost neutral now. Net short positions remain on the Nikkei 225 following the publication of a series of disappointing economic data.'
Other trends include hedge funds increasing their U.S. dollar net long positions against all the major currencies, with macroeconomic deterioration outside the U.S. and weakening commodity prices.
Hedge funds have also kept their net positions on 10-year and 30-year bonds, 'while slightly decreasing their net long positions on 30Day Fed Funds Futures', SocGen said. |
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7251
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 12:20 am Post subject: |
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China revamps its tax rates on automobiles in order to cut energy use and reduce emmissions:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/13/content_9270707.htm
| Quote: | The tax on cars with engine capacities of 3 to 4 liters will rise to 25 percent from 15 percent, with the rate for engines of more than 4 liters doubling to 40 percent.
The rate on cars with engines that are 1 liter or less will fall from 3 percent to 1 percent. |
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