Peak Oil?

[HenryTo]

Dear all,

I would like to start a discussion/argument on the validity of the Peak Oil theorists on this board. One of my subscribers had asked me to do this - and I believe it will be a very well worthwhile discussion!

I know there has been a lot of literature written about this - including recent books - but one thing that I find lacking is the fact that many of the commentators talk about the industry in VERY BROAD terms. That is, economists who are working with questionable data - questionable because of the lack of transparency in the oil markets, not because it is their fault.

I feel that Matt Simmons had done a great job in his efforts to focus on the Saudi oil machine. He spent an entire book just writing about the Saudi oil industry, and makes a very good argument which discredits the Saudis' claims that they can ramp up to 15 mm barrels a day in a few years. In all likelihood, he argues, Saudi oil output has peaked or is near peaking. We need similar analyses for the Russian oil industry, the North Sea, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil production.

Going forward, this author is bullish on the price of oil in the long-run, as I believe oil demand growth in both China and India will surpass the ability of the world to pump more oil - given current constraints and the lack of new, impressive discoveries.

I would definitely like everyone to chime in.

Best,

Henry



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[chestnutstime]

Take a good look at the volume of past two days.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug

Chestnut

[rffrydr]

Collection of views:

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/stockblogs/84118
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[lion hunter]

Peak oil is real.
The only way we get a substantail retrace in the price of oil is if the entire globe goes into a severe recession. High oil prices are here to stay indefinitely. The world is goin electric as a consequence and was sold the nuclear option as the base load alternative on the false premise that C02 emissions are to blame when in fact global warming is a natural and cyclical phenomenon and peak oil is real and now.

[nodoodahs]

Very strange. Not happening here. It's just a weblink, not a file.

The original article that I quote from is here http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/02/titans-organic.html
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[emergingwave]

I tried to open your file link above, nodoodahs, and my internet security system said the file is infected with a virus. Very strange.

[nodoodahs]

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/02/saturns-moon-had-dinosaurs/
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[emergingwave]

Got grease?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080520/ap_on_bi_ge/cooking_oil_thefts;_ylt=AsxSwN53vnvcLIao1y3Olshu24cA

[BlueDaze]

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/peak-oil.html

One question I never hear answered from Peak Oil believers. If hydrocarbons are produced by decomposing forests from a millenium ago, why does Titan (a Moon of Saturn) have both methane and hydrocarbons in abundance?

Jupiter and Saturn are basically made of hydrogen and methane. The Sun is made of hydrogen. Methane (CH4) is one of the most abundant chemicals in the Universe. However, it just so happens that most of the hydrogen and carbon on Earth are sequestered as compounds which require more energy to extract them than they can liberate (ie. water, carbon dioxide, carbonates in rocks). Buried organic deposits are unique in that they are "reduced hydrocarbons" (ie. not combined with oxygen) and they release excess energy when oxidized, ie. burned.

Posted by: Douglas Watts | May 21, 2008 1:31:42 PM

[HenryTo]

Not a pretty picture for Indian oil marketing companies. The market is now forcing their hand - prices will have to go up and inevitably consumption will come down:

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1165640

http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=10&bKeyFlag=BO&autono=323514

[rffrydr]

GaveKal rec Indonesian bonds a buy on this news have been pushed up to 12.5% on this draw to the budget. Also energy producers.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

U.S. Energy Department to stop shipments into the SPR starting July:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/16/markets/oil/index.htm?cnn=yes

[HenryTo]

Indonesia (finally) decides to cut fuel subsidies:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/jakarta-faces-backlash-over-big-fuel-rise/2008/05/15/1210765056652.html

[HenryTo]

Measure also passes the House with a vote of 385-25:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121069489043288599.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[HenryTo]

The Senate makes a direct challange to the Administration re: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/13/markets/congress_strategic_oil_reserve.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes

[Rubedo]

Mexico's Cantarell Production Down 5.7% in One Month (Exports Down 12.5% Y/Y)
Oil production drop
Mexico's premier Cantarell field produced 1.15 million b/d of oil in March, down 5.7% from February and—according to the energy ministry—the seventh straight month of waning production at the field.

During the first quarter, production from Cantarell averaged 1.2 million b/d, which was less than the 1.3 million b/d Pemex had targeted for the year.

Due to the reduced output, Mexico's exports of oil fell by 12.5% to 1.5 million b/d in the quarter, compared with the year-ago period.

Despite its falling crude production, Pemex witnessed a 13.2% growth in its natural gas production in the first quarter to 6.59 bcfd.

In March alone, gas production hit a record 6.68 bcfd, coming largely from fields at Cantarell, Samaria-Luna, Burgos, Lankahuasa, and Veracruz.

Contact Eric Watkins at hippalus