Peak Oil?

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:24 pm Post subject: Peak Oil?

Dear all,

I would like to start a discussion/argument on the validity of the Peak Oil theorists on this board. One of my subscribers had asked me to do this - and I believe it will be a very well worthwhile discussion!

I know there has been a lot of literature written about this - including recent books - but one thing that I find lacking is the fact that many of the commentators talk about the industry in VERY BROAD terms. That is, economists who are working with questionable data - questionable because of the lack of transparency in the oil markets, not because it is their fault.

I feel that Matt Simmons had done a great job in his efforts to focus on the Saudi oil machine. He spent an entire book just writing about the Saudi oil industry, and makes a very good argument which discredits the Saudis' claims that they can ramp up to 15 mm barrels a day in a few years. In all likelihood, he argues, Saudi oil output has peaked or is near peaking. We need similar analyses for the Russian oil industry, the North Sea, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil production.

Going forward, this author is bullish on the price of oil in the long-run, as I believe oil demand growth in both China and India will surpass the ability of the world to pump more oil - given current constraints and the lack of new, impressive discoveries.

I would definitely like everyone to chime in.

Best,

Henry

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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:48 am Post subject:

A new page in exploration--in our own backyards:

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-oil11apr11,0,6514396.story
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HenryTo · Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 1:17 am Post subject:

McCain now adding his voice in urging the Administration to stop adding to the SPR:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120786930632206383.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 10:06 am Post subject:

Looks like early quarter buying starting to fade under supply.

Saudis have rejected antagonistic OPEC members for special "cut" meeting this summer. In in the context of weakening endusers this amounts to an increase--without the hair-raising politics.
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HenryTo · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:42 am Post subject:

From Briefing.com:

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 9:03 pm Post subject:

More calls for Bush to release oil from the SPR:

http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2008/03/31/daily5.html

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 9:41 am Post subject:

Truckers continue to take it on the chin. Rumors now flying of a trucking strike (by independent truckers) across the country:

http://www.myfoxcolorado.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=6187491&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.2.1

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 9:22 am Post subject:

Weekly COT data show oil market has lost around 48% of the non-commercial net long positions.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 8:36 am Post subject:

Exploring another "peak," japan's consumption down two-years in a row--providing slack for china's rising thirst:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a7WM_kEEWvCM&refer=japan
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 5:54 am Post subject:

Oil Movements said on Thursday that westbound OPEC oil in the Atlantic basin is at a 3-year high. It said that the Atlantic basin oil will hit U.S. shores in April & early-May. While it’s still a bit early to see that oil, it suggests that if prices stage any kind of rally in late-Mar/early-Apr, the rally may have difficulty advancing above the $110.35 all-time high.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 5:44 am Post subject:

It's the chinese and their coal trains trying to feed the added grid capacity (equivilient of France just last year) that have pushed diesel beyond the pale. This will definitely crimp european plans to introduce the "new-diesel" here.

Hard to think of what kind of war it would take in the modern context to move prices the way they've been moved here.

check greasel.com
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HenryTo · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 1:09 am Post subject:

Trucking industry now screaming for Bush to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Note that diesel prices over here are now as high as $4.50 a gallon in parts of Beverly Hills, West LA, and Santa Monica.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Truckers Ask Bush to Tap Oil Reserves
Monday March 24, 4:27 pm ET
Trucking Trade Group Urges Bush to Tap Nation's Oil Reserves to Stop Rising Diesel Prices

WASHINGTON (AP) -- With diesel prices at record highs, the trucking industry's main trade group on Monday urged President Bush to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

In a letter to the White House, American Trucking Associations President and Chief Executive Bill Graves said surging diesel prices, which on Saturday hit nearly $4.04 a gallon, "will greatly magnify our current economic slowdown and delay our economic recovery."

The ATA, whose members include United Parcel Service Inc. and Knight Transportation Inc., last week said the nation's 3.5 million truck drivers are on pace to spend a record $135 billion on diesel fuel this year, up $22 billion from 2007. Graves said it now costs drivers more than $1,000 to fill a typical tractor-trailer.

But Bush already rejected similar release request from some in Congress. Late last year, the Reserve contained 694 million barrels of oil and has a capacity of more than 720 million barrels. The White House has repeatedly said the reserve is to be used only to counter a severe disruption in supply, not in reaction to prices.

Diesel fuel dipped nearly a penny overnight to about $4.03 a gallon Monday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 98 cents to settle at $100.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Trucks haul 70 percent of all freight and rising fuel costs could raise the cost of their cargo, including food, retail and manufactured goods, according to the ATA.

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject:

Bounced off the old highs at 98 and half. Fed Ex earnings showed consecutive declines in jetfuel usage.
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

Dealbreaker notes rumors of additional margin increases for non-comm traders. FYI.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:20 am Post subject:

I'm one of the nannies calling for $80 oil before the selloff but here's the Madman with a differnent view. Whatever your view you gotta accept the detail:

rffrydr · Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 11:43 am Post subject:

Right here in the heart of the matter where conventional responses should be seen by now, proof how much of this madness is a financial phenomenon:

Oil price fails to spark merger activity

By Ed Crooks in London

Published: March 12 2008 02:00 | Last updated: March 12 2008 02:00

The soaring oil price did little to stimulate mergers and acquisitions activity in the oil and gas industry last year, according to the leading study of deals in the sector, published today.

The survey from John S. Herold, a research firm, and Standard Chartered, a bank, also found that the prices paid for oil and gas reserves were little changed from 2006 levels, even though oil on the commodities markets rose 55 per cent during the year.

Oil continued its ascent yesterday, reaching a record $109.72 a barrel, although it fell back later.

The global value of oil and gas M&A, including corporate and asset deals, was $154bn last year, down slightly from 2006, with a 40 per cent rise in asset deals offsetting a decline in corporate activity.

The average price paid for oil and gas in proved and probable reserves also declined slightly, to $4.67 a barrel equivalent from $5.18 in 2006.

Rodney Schmidt of Standard Chartered said: "While the commodity was going to $100 a barrel, costs were rising and the government take was rising, and people have factored that into deal values."

Costs in the upstream oil and gas industry have almost doubled since 2005, according to IHS, the consultancy that owns John S. Herold.

The biggest buyer last year was Rosneft, the state-controlled Russian oil company, which spent $22bn in the auction of assets formerly owned by the collapsed oil group Yukos.

The most active western buyer in 2007 was Eni, which spent $13bn.

Sovereign wealth funds and national oil companies accounted for a smaller share of activity than in 2006, with Chinese buyers disappearing, although Herold said it expected that absence from the market to be only temporary.

Middle-eastern buyers were much more active than in 2006, led by Taqa of Abu Dhabi, which bought PrimeWest Energy Trust in Canada for $5.1bn.

Towards the end of the year, the credit squeeze might have started to affect M&A activity, according to Andrew Bartlett, Standard Chartered's global head of oil & gas corporate advisory.

"If you are a super-major looking to finance a $10bn project, it will affect you much less than it would an Aim-listed exploration company," he said.

"But even if a company is in effect AAA rated, it is going to find finance a touch more expensive and a touch more difficult to raise than a year ago."
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