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PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary |
HenryTo
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 Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:56 pm Post subject: PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary |
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April 2007 commentary from Bill Gross:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+April+2007.htm
Along the lines of what I wrote in our weekend commentary. The danger is in overregulation and tighter lending standards for months/years to come, not the current/potential losses from higher resets, etc.
| Quote: | | It will not be loan losses that threaten future economic growth, however, but the tightening of credit conditions that are in part a result of those losses ... Bulls and bears argue over websites as to the percentage of all lending that subprime and alternative mortgage loans provide but while important, the argument obscures the critical conclusion that tighter lending standards and increased regulation will change the housing outlook for some years to come. As past marginal buyers are forced to sell their home to prevent foreclosures, so too will future marginal buyers be restricted from buying them. |
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PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary Replies |
rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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Latest March 2009 commentary from Bill Gross. Also contains his views on bank nationalization:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Investment+Outlook+Bill+Gross+March+2009+Hairy+Lips+Sink+Ships.htm
| Quote: | Question: What do you think about nationalizing the banks?
Answer: I think Roubini, Dodd and Greenspan haven’t thought this one through. The U.S. isn’t Sweden, and not just because our blondes aren’t au naturel. Their successful approach revolved around a handful of banks but we have 7,500, as well as many S&Ls and credit unions, which would have to be flushed into government hands. Regulators are overwhelmed as it is, and if you thought Lehman Brothers was a mistake, just standby and see what nationalizing Citi or BofA would do. Our banks remain at the heart of domestic/global financial transactions and daily clearing, while those Scandinavian banks were not. PIMCO would not dispute the need to further capitalize systemically important banks via convertible bonds held by the government, which unfortunately dilute shareholders’ interests. To go further, however, and “haircut” senior debt or even existing preferred stock similar to that issued via the TARP would create an instability policymakers should not want to risk. In turn, forcing creditors to take haircuts would undermine other financial sectors such as insurance companies and credit unions. The goal of future policy should be to recapitalize lending institutions while maintaining the basic infrastructure of credit markets. Outright nationalization and haircutting of creditors will do just the opposite. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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TARP I was ridiculed as unworkable, unmanageable and unsupportive of lending--and in its violation of "market principles" unamerican. Direct capital injection to bank balance-sheets on the other hand was supposed to be none of the above--and leverage every dollar 10-1. Where was this support then? Where was the private support for the SuperSIV two years ago?
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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Bill Gross' November commentary:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/IO+Gross+November+2008+So+CQish.htm
| Quote: | The era now coming to an end is not a one-generational bull market that was born out of the ashes of double-digit inflation, and the end of governmental strangulation of private initiative in the early 1980s. It was much more, and much longer in duration.
The past era can best be described as a more than half-century build up in credit extension and levered finance. While home mortgages or buying a washing machine on “time” began in the early decades of the 20th century, the use and innovative application of credit really began when – well, when I was born. 1944 is as good a year as any to chronicle the beginning of our levered economy. I was a child of war, but also a child of a new global leadership confirmed at Bretton Woods and founded on faith in the U.S. dollar and the healing power that its printing could bring to the global community. |
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 10:59 pm Post subject: |
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Gross got it right. The broker/dealer at Lehman will still be in operation - so we won't see downright liquidation starting tomorrow:
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Reuters: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc says filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy; says no subsidiaries will be included in filing 12:34am EDT |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:04 pm Post subject: |
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Here are my thoughts on the PIMCO TR fund back in August of last year:
http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20070826.html
| Quote: | | About 12 months ago, PIMCO started sending their credit analysts for "ride-alongs." That is, they asked their credit analysts to physically go "undercover" and see houses with real estate agents, mortgage brokers, etc, to see what kind of deals these folks were cutting and to gauge how loose the borrowing was. That - combined with their macro views - convinced them to cut back severely on both their riskier mortgage exposure and overall credit exposure. In the meantime, I am sure that they have no subprime or Alt-A exposure in their portfolios - and most probably, no "prime" exposure of either the 2005 and 2006 vintage either. The US mortgage market is a $4 trillion market, so there are a lot of investments to go around even if you choose to not invest in either the 2005 or 2006 vintage. They have also done a lot of original research on both originators and servicers - and will only buy the mortgages that came from the relatively conservative originators. These guys also have the best and brightest PhDs working for them and I am sure that they were able to reverse-engineer Moody's and S&P ratings models - in order to confirm that much of these AAA-rated subprime securities were really junk. |
Aside from talking their book (which everybody does to a certain extent), Gross was also articulating the position of his clients, which includes the world's biggest pension funds, SWFs, central bankers, etc. But ultimately, it doesn't matter what we all think: PIMCO as an institution has the ears (and is also a great listener) of virtually everyone that matters in the financial public-policy making world today (Paul McCulley is on the team that advises the Treasury's debt strategy). And to me, that is all that matters - aside from the fact that the PIMCO TR fund is also ranked in the top 5th percentile of all intermediate fixed income funds over all timeframes over the last 15 years:
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/TotalReturns.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=PTRAX
Most Chinese that are not plundering the country would much prefer to live in the US than to stay in China, if they had the choice. No doubt the assets will follow as well. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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So tell us what you really think?
They were also on the right side of a generational trade, the breaking of inflation. And they're not getting killed like everybody else out there. And controlling the half-trillion or whatever it is now makes them experts. --Just as a retired Greenspan (who's on their paycheck now) is listened to by no-one.
Yeah, I get tired of hero PIMCO paraded out on CNBC every other day. But they are following the money. What happened with you and PIMCO, O.D.? That's way too much anger for too little of a player. PIMCO steer you wrong? We're you on the Fed ease train with Mr. Gross in '05? Or are you buggin' out? McCully has some unkind words for the goldbugs:
...But it's also the consequence of a negative real terms of trade shock, which the Fed can do nothing about in real time. I've been to the Fed's headquarters in Washington and believe me, there are no oil derricks on the property. Sometimes, you just have to live with things that you don't like because trying to fix them will give you something you like even less. It's time for the inflation nutters to understand and accept that.
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Odysseus
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| Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:37 pm Post subject: |
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Bill Gross and Paulie are just hacks taunting there own book.
You think these idiots want a fair playing field? Yeow, your grandma wears combat boots.
'Oh oh, we ain't goin to buy more GSE's til you bail our buts out of what we already own? TIGHTEN THOSE SPREADS and we'll loosen our bung holes. We got greenbacks to invest on a .........sure thing.
Pimco=whores are us.
Dumb guys caught on the wrong side of a generational trade blahing 'save me, save me.'
What is really disgusting is that they are fed to the hoi poloi as EXPERTS.
Gotta love CNBC.
Sorry but most real investors do not/will not even live here. Need we talk about capital flight?
My money is growing wings as we do not address the end game of this charade.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:33 am Post subject: |
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The Madman says take courage in what you don't know:
| Quote: |
Remember the Banks
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/4/2008 2:47 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW
If Bill Gross goes on a buyers' strike, how can the rest of us buy? If Bill Gross says everything's in bear-market mode -- everything -- how can we think about picking stocks up?
Because there are levels. There are levels where there are buys -- and we heard that from Bill in his interview with Erin Burnett and me on CNBC. For bonds, Bill doesn't think we'll get to that level until we see Treasury get involved, and in his amazing note just out today, he's basically challenging Treasury in the way I challenged the Fed last year.
For stocks there are levels, too. There are prices being created by this bear market that will allow us to profit. I urge you to remember back when Wachovia was at $8 and Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) at $18. I want you to remember when Wells (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and U.S. Bank (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take) were both at $20. You have to remember, because the same kind of action that is creating these prices -- forced redemptions and panic -- created those levels. That's the kind of pain that these sellers are bringing out. We are not there yet, but then again, we didn't know we were there when that panic happened.
Keep your eyes open; the selling pressure is at maximum levels historically.
Remeous buys were once-in-a-lifetime buys. We aren't there yet, but we didn't know then, and we don't know now.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.ember those buys of the financials.
Those steely buys are what you need to be thinking about, those courageous buys were once-in-a-lifetime buys. We aren't there yet, but we didn't know then, and we don't know now.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
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