 |
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
 Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:56 pm Post subject: PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary |
 |
|
April 2007 commentary from Bill Gross:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+April+2007.htm
Along the lines of what I wrote in our weekend commentary. The danger is in overregulation and tighter lending standards for months/years to come, not the current/potential losses from higher resets, etc.
| Quote: | | It will not be loan losses that threaten future economic growth, however, but the tightening of credit conditions that are in part a result of those losses ... Bulls and bears argue over websites as to the percentage of all lending that subprime and alternative mortgage loans provide but while important, the argument obscures the critical conclusion that tighter lending standards and increased regulation will change the housing outlook for some years to come. As past marginal buyers are forced to sell their home to prevent foreclosures, so too will future marginal buyers be restricted from buying them. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| Author |
PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary Replies |
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 30, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bill Gross' November commentary:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/IO+Gross+November+2008+So+CQish.htm
| Quote: | The era now coming to an end is not a one-generational bull market that was born out of the ashes of double-digit inflation, and the end of governmental strangulation of private initiative in the early 1980s. It was much more, and much longer in duration.
The past era can best be described as a more than half-century build up in credit extension and levered finance. While home mortgages or buying a washing machine on “time” began in the early decades of the 20th century, the use and innovative application of credit really began when – well, when I was born. 1944 is as good a year as any to chronicle the beginning of our levered economy. I was a child of war, but also a child of a new global leadership confirmed at Bretton Woods and founded on faith in the U.S. dollar and the healing power that its printing could bring to the global community. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 10:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Gross got it right. The broker/dealer at Lehman will still be in operation - so we won't see downright liquidation starting tomorrow:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reuters: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc says filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy; says no subsidiaries will be included in filing 12:34am EDT |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 7541
Location: Sunny California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Here are my thoughts on the PIMCO TR fund back in August of last year:
http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20070826.html
| Quote: | | About 12 months ago, PIMCO started sending their credit analysts for "ride-alongs." That is, they asked their credit analysts to physically go "undercover" and see houses with real estate agents, mortgage brokers, etc, to see what kind of deals these folks were cutting and to gauge how loose the borrowing was. That - combined with their macro views - convinced them to cut back severely on both their riskier mortgage exposure and overall credit exposure. In the meantime, I am sure that they have no subprime or Alt-A exposure in their portfolios - and most probably, no "prime" exposure of either the 2005 and 2006 vintage either. The US mortgage market is a $4 trillion market, so there are a lot of investments to go around even if you choose to not invest in either the 2005 or 2006 vintage. They have also done a lot of original research on both originators and servicers - and will only buy the mortgages that came from the relatively conservative originators. These guys also have the best and brightest PhDs working for them and I am sure that they were able to reverse-engineer Moody's and S&P ratings models - in order to confirm that much of these AAA-rated subprime securities were really junk. |
Aside from talking their book (which everybody does to a certain extent), Gross was also articulating the position of his clients, which includes the world's biggest pension funds, SWFs, central bankers, etc. But ultimately, it doesn't matter what we all think: PIMCO as an institution has the ears (and is also a great listener) of virtually everyone that matters in the financial public-policy making world today (Paul McCulley is on the team that advises the Treasury's debt strategy). And to me, that is all that matters - aside from the fact that the PIMCO TR fund is also ranked in the top 5th percentile of all intermediate fixed income funds over all timeframes over the last 15 years:
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundNet/TotalReturns.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=PTRAX
Most Chinese that are not plundering the country would much prefer to live in the US than to stay in China, if they had the choice. No doubt the assets will follow as well. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 7541
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
So tell us what you really think?
They were also on the right side of a generational trade, the breaking of inflation. And they're not getting killed like everybody else out there. And controlling the half-trillion or whatever it is now makes them experts. --Just as a retired Greenspan (who's on their paycheck now) is listened to by no-one.
Yeah, I get tired of hero PIMCO paraded out on CNBC every other day. But they are following the money. What happened with you and PIMCO, O.D.? That's way too much anger for too little of a player. PIMCO steer you wrong? We're you on the Fed ease train with Mr. Gross in '05? Or are you buggin' out? McCully has some unkind words for the goldbugs:
...But it's also the consequence of a negative real terms of trade shock, which the Fed can do nothing about in real time. I've been to the Fed's headquarters in Washington and believe me, there are no oil derricks on the property. Sometimes, you just have to live with things that you don't like because trying to fix them will give you something you like even less. It's time for the inflation nutters to understand and accept that.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Odysseus
Senior Poster
Joined: 14 Feb 2008
Posts: 103
Location: Dallas/Moscow
|
| Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bill Gross and Paulie are just hacks taunting there own book.
You think these idiots want a fair playing field? Yeow, your grandma wears combat boots.
'Oh oh, we ain't goin to buy more GSE's til you bail our buts out of what we already own? TIGHTEN THOSE SPREADS and we'll loosen our bung holes. We got greenbacks to invest on a .........sure thing.
Pimco=whores are us.
Dumb guys caught on the wrong side of a generational trade blahing 'save me, save me.'
What is really disgusting is that they are fed to the hoi poloi as EXPERTS.
Gotta love CNBC.
Sorry but most real investors do not/will not even live here. Need we talk about capital flight?
My money is growing wings as we do not address the end game of this charade.
_________________
Psychic with Alzheimers. I can predict what I will forget. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 7541
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:33 am Post subject: |
|
|
The Madman says take courage in what you don't know:
| Quote: |
Remember the Banks
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/4/2008 2:47 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW
If Bill Gross goes on a buyers' strike, how can the rest of us buy? If Bill Gross says everything's in bear-market mode -- everything -- how can we think about picking stocks up?
Because there are levels. There are levels where there are buys -- and we heard that from Bill in his interview with Erin Burnett and me on CNBC. For bonds, Bill doesn't think we'll get to that level until we see Treasury get involved, and in his amazing note just out today, he's basically challenging Treasury in the way I challenged the Fed last year.
For stocks there are levels, too. There are prices being created by this bear market that will allow us to profit. I urge you to remember back when Wachovia was at $8 and Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) at $18. I want you to remember when Wells (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and U.S. Bank (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take) were both at $20. You have to remember, because the same kind of action that is creating these prices -- forced redemptions and panic -- created those levels. That's the kind of pain that these sellers are bringing out. We are not there yet, but then again, we didn't know we were there when that panic happened.
Keep your eyes open; the selling pressure is at maximum levels historically.
Remeous buys were once-in-a-lifetime buys. We aren't there yet, but we didn't know then, and we don't know now.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.ember those buys of the financials.
Those steely buys are what you need to be thinking about, those courageous buys were once-in-a-lifetime buys. We aren't there yet, but we didn't know then, and we don't know now.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned. |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 5:49 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Latest monthly commentary from Gross. Says the time to act decisively is now:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/Investment+Outlook+Bill+Gross+Sept+2008+Bull+Market.htm
| Quote: | | This rarely observed systematic debt liquidation is what confronts the U.S. and perhaps even the global financial system at the current time. Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami. Central bankers, of course, adopting the cloak and demeanor of firefighters or perhaps lifeguards, have been hard at work over the past 12 months to contain the damage. And the private market, in its attempt to anticipate a bear market bottom and snap up “bargains,” has been constructive as well. Over $400 billion in bank- and finance-related capital has been raised during the past year, a decent amount of it, by the way, having been bought by yours truly and my associates at PIMCO. Too bad for us and for everyone else who bought too soon. There are few of these deals now priced at par or above, which is bondspeak for “they are all underwater.” We, as well as our SWF and central bank counterparts, are reluctant to make additional commitments. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7644
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 7541
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 7:13 am Post subject: |
|
|
Investment grade corporates selling:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at9yBsJsTjns&refer=home
It's not just a cycle play. Note the last line:
| Quote: |
``In this environment, all things being equal, a company would probably just as soon issue as long as it can in the bond market, just because of all the uncertainty,'' said Wilmer Stith, who manages about $3 billion in fixed-income assets for MTB Investment Advisors in Baltimore. ``It's better to have a bird in the hand.'' |
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rffrydr
Moderator
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 7541
Location: Sunny California
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: | | As well, because of the retreat of securitization, risk spreads – from corporate bonds to equities, to commercial and residential real estate – will settle at permanently higher levels. The U.S. asset-based economy will morph into a more expensive hybrid that will reign supreme for years to come. |
The weight of the EEM has been lifted off his shoulders... Other than that, I'm not sure what he's talking about??? Hybrid is what defines every other nation's strcture. Inflation? Ours is better??? --Or, money come back to its rightful home.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Please log in to view without the ad banners |
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Statistics
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
