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PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary Replies |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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Well...that's the flipside right there: to all these issues of securitization, parties willoffset in the end and there will be winners. Even in subprime, even in subprime that WILL fail there will be payment streams...in many cases for years.
This leaves aside leverage (and leverage where there should be none)--that's whole different kettle of fish.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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Bill Gross on credit default swaps:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0bPUzHR3dJs&refer=home
| Quote: | Assuming default rates on corporate bonds reach historical averages of about 1.25 percent, $500 billion of credit-default swap contracts will be triggered, causing losses of $250 billion to sellers of the derivatives after accounting for the recovery value of the securities, Gross said.
``Of course, `buyers of protection' will be on the other `winning' side, but the point is that as capital gains and capital losses slosh from one side of the shadow system's boat to the other, casualties and shipwrecks are the inevitable consequence,'' Gross said. ``Goldman Sachs wins? Fine, but the losers in many cases will not be back for a return match.'' |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 8:43 am Post subject: |
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Gross taking the steam of overnight rally saying king has no clothes. Say's Moody's 5% anticipated corporate default rate will actually have to be paid for in credit default markets.
We have cycled back to leading, not following, overnight markets.
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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Hey, Bill:
I think you got subprime nailed a couple of posts back. And they'll be able to take what credit they need.
But it's not really about subprime is it? 2% of the mortgage market. What was built on their backs, and at their ulitmate expense, is a much bigger question.
Buy RMBS: Sell CMBS
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| HenryTo wrote: | Bill Gross extremely bearish in this month's commentary:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+November+2007.htm
| Quote: | | An increasingly recessionary looking U.S. economy will likely require 1% real short rates and 3½% Fed Funds in order to stabilize a potential growth contraction in lending not witnessed since the early 1970s or, to be honest, Roosevelt’s depressionary 1930s. We can only hope that Bernanke, Paulson, and their cohorts recognize the danger and that the music keeps playing with the lights still turned on. |
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Hmm, sounds like a scenario that would be extremely BULLish for the world's largest BOND trader. Is he talking his book?
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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Bill Gross extremely bearish in this month's commentary:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+November+2007.htm
| Quote: | | An increasingly recessionary looking U.S. economy will likely require 1% real short rates and 3½% Fed Funds in order to stabilize a potential growth contraction in lending not witnessed since the early 1970s or, to be honest, Roosevelt’s depressionary 1930s. We can only hope that Bernanke, Paulson, and their cohorts recognize the danger and that the music keeps playing with the lights still turned on. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| Yes, also the Fed hasn't met their expectations for awhile now. I think he is more correct in this commentary than most of his past ones - as I believe the Fed will cut rates going forward, but not in an aggressive manner by any stretch of the imagination. |
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reidbrownfield
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Joined: 13 Jun 2005
Posts: 105
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:54 am Post subject: |
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If rates are coming down further than everyone expects, then wont bonds be the place to be?
May I question Mr Gross's incentive to point this out to everyone.
This boy is beating his own drum.
I do agree that bonds will go up in value. However, I just want everyone to understand that Bill Gross is a bond salesman.
Reid |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2007 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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Latest October 2007 commentary from Bill Gross. Still calling for an agressive easing in the Fed Funds rate, but am tempering expectations given that they believe the Fed does not want to be seen as "bailing out" the subprime borrowers. Says this will probably bring on a more severe slowdown that it would have otherwise:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+October+2007.htm |
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HenryTo
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Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:39 pm Post subject: |
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Bill Gross of PIMCO suggests that the Fed will need to cut to at least 3.75% in order to rejuvenate economic growth:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCVrFHlD8_hg&refer=home
| Quote: | Pimco now expects the U.S. economy to slow even more in the next 12 months than earlier this year, according to Paul McCulley, a managing director at the firm.
U.S. gross domestic product will grow 1.25 percent to 1.75 percent in the next 12 months, compared with a forecast in March that the economy would grow 2 percent to 2.5 percent, McCulley wrote in comments posted on the firm's Web site today.
``If that is the case, the Fed has to start now and start significantly in their downward trek,'' Gross said. |
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