PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:56 pm Post subject: PIMCO's Bill Gross Commentary

April 2007 commentary from Bill Gross:

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+April+2007.htm

Along the lines of what I wrote in our weekend commentary. The danger is in overregulation and tighter lending standards for months/years to come, not the current/potential losses from higher resets, etc.

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:53 pm Post subject:

Great video and interview. I recommend all our readers to view the interview right up to the end (the part where Gross says that the junk bond market has peaked).

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:44 pm Post subject:

The face behind the commentary:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vZzEWpM2veMg.asf

And bidding through PIMCO on mortgages.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:37 am Post subject:

I generally agree. However one asset Hedge Funds may not liquidate is their HEAVY short positons in what remains of.... subprime!

--Or maybe they will, popping the assets. Irony of ironies!
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:53 am Post subject:

The bear Bill Gross is back. Following is his July commentary on subprime and housing:

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+July+2007.htm

Take-away points:

1) Bear Stearns is just the tip of the iceberg. One cannot paper over the problem if the physical assets - the houses - are sitting empty with no buyers, thus depressing the rest of the housing market.

2) Mortgage resets will continue to act as a depressant on liquidity into 2008 at least. Not sure of the multiplier effects here, however.

3) AAA not what it used to be. Quote: "But look at it this way: using the current default rate of 7% (3-4% total losses), the holders of some BBB investment grade subprime-based CDOs will lose all of their moolah because of the significant leverage. No need to worry about fictitious 100 cents on the dollar marks here. One hundred percent of nothing equals nothing. If subprime total losses hit 10% then even some single-A tranches face the grim reaper."

4) The continuing subprime problem will create a problem for other riskier asset classes, since hedge funds will need to liquidate other assets in order to stay afloat.

5) Because of all this, the Fed will start cutting rates in six months.

rffrydr · Posted: Tue May 29, 2007 6:16 am Post subject:

Get's lucky on Venezualan technical default:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4c2DkItlhwo&refer=home

Something tells me Chavez is not going to just pay up. Something tells me that Gross is NOT feeling lucky.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

HenryTo · Posted: Mon May 28, 2007 3:58 pm Post subject:

Could be - also, there is nothing new in that commentary which we haven't discussed already. I will discuss this more in tonight's commentary.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon May 28, 2007 3:56 pm Post subject:

HenryTo · Posted: Mon May 28, 2007 11:55 am Post subject:

A must-read, as usual. May/June 2007 commentary from Bill Gross:

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+May-June+2007.htm

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 9:09 am Post subject:

Trotted out on Bloomberg today:

Holding to "core" inflation values in forecast for FED cuts. Hedging short end with, yes, mortgages. Bearish on Junk and dollar.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!