Poll: Recession

Gunner65 · Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:31 pm Post subject: Poll: Recession

Ok folks,

Whats your opinion on the chances of a recession?

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2007 11:39 pm Post subject:

According to Intrade.com, the US now has a 41% chance of entering a recession sometime in 2008.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:48 am Post subject:

Lehman Brothers assigns a 30% probability of a recession:
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Credit crisis worse than LTCM - Lehman's Malvey
By Walden Siew

NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. credit crisis is now worse than the crisis of confidence following the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and recession risks are growing, said Jack Malvey, chief global fixed income strategist at Lehman Brothers.

In 1998, investor confidence was shaken after deep losses resulted in the collapse of Long-Term Capital, which spurred the Federal Reserve to initiate a bailout of the hedge fund to avert a wider financial collapse.

"This is the deepest correction we've ever seen in structured finance," Malvey said in an interview on Friday. "This is now worse than Long-Term Capital.

"This is so dispersed, so interlocked and the relationships among the various entities are not as evident," Malvey said. "This is a painful lesson in financial engineering."

While Lehman now assigns a 30 percent probability of the U.S. falling into recession next year, risks may be growing, Malvey said.

"There's a lot of recession risk denial in the marketplace," Malvey said. "We will find out over the next three to six quarters if we are coming close to recession or may cross over the recession line."

The collapse of Bear Stearns hedge funds in July have been followed by massive bank write-downs that have even surprised veteran bond and market analysts.

"This sort of staccato reporting of write-downs is something with financial services that we haven't seen in quite a while, not since the S&L crisis" in the 1980s, Malvey said. (Editing by Andrea Ricci)

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1731 Location: TX

Did rffrydr vote more than once? Our poll seems skewed bearish ...
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He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:09 am Post subject:

The link was posted on the Safehaven.com site as well. Wink

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1731 Location: TX

OMG that totally 'splains it!
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

HenryTo · Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:25 am Post subject:

According to the latest from Intrade.com, the US now has a 45% chance of entering a recession sometime in 2008.

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 11:01 am Post subject:

Goldman's take on the subject:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXHulkIznCr0&refer=home

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 11:05 am Post subject:

Just hit 50% on intrade.com.

HenryTo · Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 1:32 pm Post subject:

Back down to 45.5%. The liquidity on this contract isn't too high so this should only be used as a secondary indicator (in addition to the ECRI WLI and the UCLA Anderson Forecast).

HenryTo · Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject:

FWIW, the probability of a recession in 2008 - as predicted by the intrade.com contracts - is now back up over 50%. Last trade was 53%.

HenryTo · Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 9:41 am Post subject:

Last trade was 64%.