Predictive Model Output - Jan 26, 2007

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1862 Location: TX

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/01/predictive-model-output-jan-26-2007/
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HenryTo · Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 1:11 pm Post subject:

Hi Bill,

Quoting from your commentary: "The safety model is in the 6th decile for the next year, placing the odds of a 10% or more correction at about 7%, and such corrections occur, on average, 13% of the time. Note this is the odds calculation for a 10% correction from Friday’s close, not from the previous intraday high. The annual model for potential has generally been in the 8th or 9th decile and the annual model for safety has generally been in the 5th or 6th decile for over a month and a half, now."

If I may ask, what would cause your safety model to flash a more bearish signal - e.g. odds of a 10% or more correction at 13% or greater?

Thanks,

Henry