Q1 '10 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS

rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:41 am Post subject: Q1 '10 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS

Let the good times roll:

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 23, 2010 5:32 pm Post subject:

....And homebuying season. California is pushing another 10K/new home stimulus. And let's not forget the great Chanos short that has to be worked out:

China-Related Stocks Just Keep Romping

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
3/23/2010 4:15 PM EDT

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:59 pm Post subject:

How can you be short going into first 100.000+ jobs number...into spring?

Watch overbought get more overbought all magnified by the usual seasonal. Today's break with Hang Seng and Greece could be telling. There are still reverberations out there bigger than Lowry's database. Swenlin's been denied. Now the miniquants.

We'll see, but I'm sticking to plan A.
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HenryTo · Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:41 pm Post subject:

Lowry's latest:

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:28 pm Post subject:

Retail freaked at overboughtness:

http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/ODD_LOT_PURCHASE_%25.htm
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 7:44 am Post subject:

What would it mean to rally into a Capital Income tax raising weekend?
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 6:05 am Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 8:29 am Post subject:

Some "March Lows" anniversary comments from DB:

Anatomy of the correction: Net short in futures at all-time high. In terms of
fundamentals, following the relatively uninterrupted rally of 70% from the March lows,
there was a growing consensus for a correction (-10%). In the event, the sequence of
three shocks in quick succession (China tightening; Greece sovereign risk; and
Washington policy risk) trumped much-better-than-expected Q4 earnings, resulting in a
peak-to-trough 9% sell-off. We argued that the selldown was a temporary correction
and an economic recovery was far from being priced into US equities (US Equity
Strategy, What’s Working? February 10, 2010)
NH
). In terms of flows and positioning, the
sell-down saw notable outflows from mutual funds (1.4% of AUM); mutual funds and
hedge funds reduced exposure to the market by 8 and 20 percentage points,
respectively; and most notably, the S&P 500 net futures short position increased by
~60k contracts, to an all-time high. The latter short was bigger than last March, which
saw the S&P fall 15% over the month
NH
The underweight positioning overhang remains. Equity flows turned modestly positive
over the last two weeks, but have further to recover in cumulative terms. Mutual fund
positioning turned up from underweight to neutral. However, long-short equity hedge
funds positioning remains more than 10 percentage points underweight relative to
November-December levels and 15- 20 pp below pre-financial crisis levels. Most
importantly, the record net short S&P 500 futures position as of Tuesday last week had
barely begun to be covered
NH
After the correction: Target 1250 on futures unwind by April payrolls. Our estimate of
the implications of an unwinding of the net futures short position to average levels is
S&P 500 upside to 1250. The key fundamental catalyst for the unwinding of positions
remains, in our view, a recovery in the labor market. We expect March payrolls will be
up a strong +350k (underlying recovery and a snowstorm snap-back) but the market
will likely only get more confident with a second increase in payrolls in April. Given Q4
2009 earnings of $77 at an annualized rate (ex-Tarp charges), 1250 would imply a
multiple of 16.2x on these earnings—in the vicinity of our estimate of fair value (16.4x)

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 8:04 am Post subject:

Cisco vow to change the internet as we know it today 11 EST....
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:48 am Post subject:

.....right on cue:

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:40 am Post subject:

Still got room for a financial rally into spring volume be-damed in the context of bulls looking for 1225 at best.
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

Me churning more. Dislike it.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2010 3:52 pm Post subject:

Taking my close to 20% in URE in two weeks and rolling it into underlying IYR manana morning margined up 50%. We'll pass on theta and let the brand pay it's own margin. Strangely, that one comes with a dividend. (See "Fun with Leverage, ETFs)

Gonna stay on this "trainwreck" with yielder JFP and indirectly of course with that flogged animal BAC. Citi I don't even count anymore--though, as always, it's an embedded option.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Feb 24, 2010 8:17 pm Post subject:

Toyota spiking higher in Japan pulled up by Bill's string... and "do you solemly swear":

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35568923

I note he doesn't address the Toyota "consumer"....rather "society."
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

From BRIITs to RITSS. A little more "Asian." Definitely some churning hitting in this correction, market leaders resetting ...
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.