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Q1 '10 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:41 am Post subject: Q1 '10 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS |
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Let the good times roll:
| Quote: | At a time when prices for commodities such as tea, cocoa and sugar are soaring to their highest levels in years, lobster, a delicacy associated with luxury living, is selling at bargain prices.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e2c976c2-f715-11de-9fb5-00144feab49a.html
Nothing is obvious.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 8:16 am Post subject: |
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The media seems to be chatty and happy, most interviews of those looking for 2011 hikes haven't flinched.
I had thought there'd be no touching anything rates-related until we got a strongly positive jobs number--period. But I also haven't given it much worry as the FED has clearly NOT been in the driver's seat over this cycle. Indeed the last time the market cared about a FED move on rates was Fall, '07. Indeed it's performance that summer was a huge blow to its credibility. AIG and bonus-gate after that has put its very structure on the line. It remains to be seen what role they'll play going forward. In this instance gridlock is good.
After what we've been through a hiking FED stands to be greeted like a long lost friend.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:34 am Post subject: |
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Tom Graff
Bank corporate bonds... huge rally coming
2/19/2010 7:51 AM EST
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The Street tried to get short in Europe overnight and CDS moved 3-5 wider. I was getting ready to come in here and tell RM readers all about how I was going to aggressively buy credit on the sell-off.
But the sell-off doesn't look like its coming. The Street was caught way off-sides and U.S. buy-side traders are coming in to buy in a big way already. Street scrambling, lifting every offer it can find. Nominally I'm seeing bank/finance bonds quoted 5 tighter already, and I doubt you can actually execute at those quoted levels right now. It will be 10 tighter next time I write in this space I'm sure.
There is some hope that credit ETFs and/or closed-end funds still open weaker. If so, I'm going to buy as much as I can. But actual bonds are moving tighter in a hurry. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2010 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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Bob Byrne
Love the Fed's timing...
2/18/2010 5:19 PM EST
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In regard to the big move in the futures -- the move happened after the New York close, so bids where thin and should be expected to evaporate quickly. Also, we managed to test the 1106.75 level which gave traders a reason to look short. While I did short into the 1106.75 level (and intended to hold it for more than 45 minutes), I was more than happy to take it off into Bernanke's gift.
For those bored souls that hang around watching the flickering ticks after the regular session closes... flip to things like the TWM, QID, or other ultra-short ETFs when news like this hits. The TWM sat around doing nothing for several seconds while the ES/SPY got clubbed, offering traders more than enough time to pick up a few shares and take quick scalps. |
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nodoodahs
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:33 am Post subject: |
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Meisler:
| Quote: | | ....So to summarize, we're at resistance and still have that triple-digit put/call ratio of the CBOE Volatility Index to resolve. (We ought to see a down day from that, see Wednesday's column for a fuller discussion on the subject). But with the bearishness not yet converted to bullishness, and my many indicators pointing upward, I still find myself on the positive side of the ledger these days. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2010 3:30 am Post subject: |
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From Lowry:
| Quote: | | Yesterday's [Tuesday's] rally was confirmed as a 90% Up Day with Up Volume at 90.8% of total NYSE Up/Down Volume while Points Gained was 94.5% of total Points Gained/Points Lost. With today's 3 point rise the Buying Power Index reached a new recovery high. At the same time the Selling Pressure Index is now just 4 points from its low at 721. The combination of a new high in Buying Power and new low in Selling Pressure would reinstate the lowest risk phase for new buying the Primary Buying Zone. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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xxx aRMs reiterates:
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Markets Make Their Stand
By xxx Arms
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/10/2010 8:15 AM EST
Click here for more stories by xxx Arms Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW
Attribute it, if you wish, to the Greek Revival, but one did not have to be the Delphic Oracle to foretell at the end of last week that the markets were oversold and about to bounce. We not only had a very oversold Arms Index, but also a typical climactic turn on Friday. Even on Monday, with still dismal international news, it was apparent the averages were trying to make a stand.
Climaxes are characterized by heavy volume and a reversal, often in one day, from a big drop to an advance. Remember, though, that we often see more than one climactic turn during the progress of a downward move. What we saw on Friday was probably not the turn but a turn. However, it led to a very nice advance, which looks as though it has further to go.
Below, we see that the rally has taken the S&P 500 toward, but hasn't yet reached, the old support level and the small descending trendline. Getting through that level will be crucial. In the meantime, the second chart shows us that the 5-day Arms Index remains oversold, which suggests the rally has room to climb. But please keep in mind: This is a rally within a market that, longer-term, appears to have made a meaningful downturn. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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long URE this morning. See posts on CMBS.
Greece fading in bureaucratic rescue and china going into New Year having already taken the bloom off. We're set up to trade ourselves for the next month or so. More surprises like Wyndam and get a little rally out it.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:30 am Post subject: |
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When Fed selling of assets begin it will be gradual. Duh.... Yet needs to be said. So much for "mark-to-market."
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Ven wrote: | | Nodoodahs, March 2009-January 2010 has only been a technical correction following the Oct. '07-March '09 crash. The market rallied to the pre-eminent demarcation line of the last decade, 1150, and that rally has failed, indicating a mere technical correction that has now ended. |
Meh. I’m just going to follow my indicators, they’ll be late on turns but heck on the straightaways, and I’ll be fine in the long term without prognosticating.
| Ven wrote: | | The phenomenon that affected the banks in 2007 and 2008 has not gone away. It has only been passed on to sovereign governments who have taken over the mantle of risk guarantee. It's the same phenomenon as before March 2009. |
Don’t know who you’re trying to convince.
| Ven wrote: | | The news today is an E.U. bailout of Greece. But that's irrelevant except for a mere trading day or two. Even if a bailout goes through, the market will immediately turn its attention to Ireland, Portugal, Spain. Eastern Europe. Eventually France, the U.K. and right on down the line it will go. Even if the U.S. and Germany bailout everyone, the market will eventually attack USTs and German Bunds. |
If you’re right, then eventually my indicators will have me in SH, TBF, EFZ, and EUM. Maybe also DBP. But they don’t have me there yet. For now, still BRIITs.
| Ven wrote: | | There is no way to spend infinite amounts of money to stop what is to come. |
Tell that to the Japanese!
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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| My guess (as mentioned on last night's commentary) is that this is a relief rally based on a possible bailout deal by the EU. A carefully constructed package will take weeks to draft and negotiations - the latter is especially hard given the general walkouts/protests we're going to see over the next couple of weeks. |
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Ven
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| Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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Nodoodahs, March 2009-January 2010 has only been a technical correction following the Oct. '07-March '09 crash. The market rallied to the pre-eminent demarcation line of the last decade, 1150, and that rally has failed, indicating a mere technical correction that has now ended.
The phenomenon that affected the banks in 2007 and 2008 has not gone away. It has only been passed on to sovereign governments who have taken over the mantle of risk guarantee. It's the same phenomenon as before March 2009.
The news today is an E.U. bailout of Greece. But that's irrelevant except for a mere trading day or two. Even if a bailout goes through, the market will immediately turn its attention to Ireland, Portugal, Spain. Eastern Europe. Eventually France, the U.K. and right on down the line it will go. Even if the U.S. and Germany bailout everyone, the market will eventually attack USTs and German Bunds.
There is no way to spend infinite amounts of money to stop what is to come. |
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nodoodahs
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| Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:58 am Post subject: |
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| nodoodahs wrote: | | Ven wrote: | | The technical damage was real today. |
Not to my positions. Still the same ones ...
| Ven wrote: | | And anyone notice the signs of a h&s top forming? I do. |
Can’t say I noticed that ... wasn’t looking for one
| HenryTo wrote: | ...
However, my guess is that next week is rally week. A sigh of relief will sweep through the market as the Greek deficit issue fades (if only temporarily) from the front page and becomes an anti-climax. I then see another correction later in the second half of February. |
With you on the Greek issue getting out of the news flow, but I’m curious, do you have an idea of what news item might be triggered in later Feb, or do you have a technical analysis reason? |
H, you and I were both off on the Greek issue fading away, it seems to have gone a bit further ...
I had a lot of mark-to-market damage but not enough technical damage to make me change positions, although some were looking like they were daring me to make a change ... still 100% EM equities at the moment, BRIITs so to speak. Need to remember to check the 401K for cash additions to allocate ...
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rffrydr
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