Q1 '10 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS

[rffrydr]

Let the good times roll:

[rffrydr]

xxx Arms chimes in:

Fear Has Entered the Market

By xxx Arms
RealMoney.com Contributor

[rffrydr]

That was fun. Ol' Wacky Wollie picked the turn today to the 30min mark.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26301414

Picked up some bank debt, regional and BAC, Shore Bancorp, IRE, MHY; sold some BAC puts.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

American Express: Now +175, was as tight as +140.

Bank of Amerca: Now +218, was +146

Citigroup now +280, was +209.

GE Capital now +212, was +142.

Goldman Sachs now +187, was +114.

J.P. Morgan now +150, was +85.

Morgan Stanley now +220, was +172.

Wells Fargo now +136, was +98.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[Ven]

1.4 million more job losses from benchmark revisions.
U6 spiked to 18%.

Official headline number at 9.7%...but without seasonal adjustments, the number would be 10.6%.

[rffrydr]

Jobs revision chart:


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/05/143021/and-the-2009-us-payroll-revisions-show/

Interesting that the the bloomberg report uses Buffett, and his brick and insulation busniesses, has the standard for his firings...or lack of hirings. Are we running to daddy? Bad news.

Factory hiring up 11000....we're on our way.


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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

The stuff I've been lookin' at still isn't a value--let alone cheap.

Mainly a china roll--with PIIGs on the follow-up. Fed and BOE ARE tightening but continue to see this as a (failed) retest of OCT lows. Heartbreak anniversary of Jan Jobs on deck. 150 print (sorta implied by ISM) would give us some nerve. Not betting on it though...looking to next wednesday or so.

Buck blowing right through "resistence"--nice to take some ST profit in the next couple of days. --Nice to be with the MT HedgeFund
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

The Oversold Rally's Fits and Starts

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/2/2010 7:00 AM EST

[rffrydr]

Smiles all around on friday?



I just don't want to discount the worst seasonal month.

Comments from ISM Ore:

· Things are definitely picking up in the manufacturing sector

· PMI was a very aggressive number

· Appears ISM strenght is sustainable

· Sees recovery as typical, leading with strong growth

· Production index was a very positive indication

· Mfgs more will to hire and fill positions but not seeing large scale mgf job replacemenyt

· Heading toward end of destocking cycle

· Seeing significant restocking of re inventories

· Good to see more breadth to recovery

· Automotive sector very strong

· Destocking continues but st a slower pace

· Inventories still too lean

· Premature to think much jobs growth has yet come from manufacturing

· ISM numbers more vshaped than thought

· Chances of “W” recovery very low.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

That's about right for now:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=X&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50381042939


The Greek bond kicker came in when it appeared to be an inside job--through the ECB back door. But, in the end, that's what the market is said to "want" anyway.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Hey Bill,

It's technicals and sentiment for the most part. Given the lack of a serious correction since March 2009 - and given the overbought conditions coming into January - this seems like the perfect place to experience one such correction.

The market is now very oversold in the ST, but the intermediate term indicators are still at neutral or overbought levels. Ditto for sentiment. It's going to take weeks to work off this (still) IT overbought condition. Maybe we could do it with a flat market. A multi-week pause would also be very healthy in the long-run.

As far as news items go, I really don't know. In a panicky market, the bears would hold on to any bearish news items - and may even create their own. Case in point: The Greek deficit is not exactly a news item - it has been a problem for years and was definitely a problem going into the financial crisis. In fact, things in Greece did not really look shaky until early this week - after the Greek government was able to sell billions in debt.

My guess is that before this is over, Greek bond yields will be significantly higher. This needs to be resolved one way or the other and I don't think the financial markes will be willing to wait. More to come this weekend!

[nodoodahs]

[HenryTo]

As I mentioned in last weekend's commentary, it looks like there is further downside in the weeks ahead - but the current decline is definitely overdone in the short-run. Another significant decline next week would actually be bullish - as this would bring in the panic selling and thus capitulation.

However, my guess is that next week is rally week. A sigh of relief will sweep through the market as the Greek deficit issue fades (if only temporarily) from the front page and becomes an anti-climax. I then see another correction later in the second half of February.

[Ven]

The technical damage was real today.

And anyone notice the signs of a h&s top forming? I do.

[nodoodahs]

Not enough technical damage in this pullback to make me move my positions yet. Preference is still EM equities FWIW. Other than basic tightening up, consolidating into fewer holdings, I haven’t really made major moves this month ...
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[rffrydr]

Nice pop on CConfidence and housing prices today.... If you watched any of the Banking Committee hearings (and R. Corker's in particular) you'd known the risk was low of Bernanke not being confirmed. Reid was going play ball--that was a given.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!