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QII '11 SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS Replies |
rffrydr
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nodoodahs
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 Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:33 am Post subject: |
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Time for a QIII thread ...
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:07 am Post subject: |
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Finally kicked the first-day-o-t'month/quarter bugaboo: there were alot betting against that possibilty:
A Trader's Nightmare
By Timothy Collins
| Quote: | | I wish the alarm would go off. This type of market is a trader's nightmare. It is similar to what Rev was talking about earlier, and Bob Byrne and I discussed it today. When the market goes lower, you don't get bounces to get out, you just have to get out. When the market runs higher, there are no dips or retracements to buy, you simply have to buy. The market doesn't let you in on the way up and it doesn't give you opportunities to exit on the way down. People seem to think a market that just trades higher is a great market to trade. For most, it's not. Today, I took a stroll down a one-way alley street, but unfortunately, I was going in the wrong direction. It's hard to dodge a semi when it's the size of the entire alley. I didn't do... |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 8:07 am Post subject: |
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Yup.....
| rffrydr wrote: | Big disconnect in HYG an underlying bonds--guess this is the panic we wanted. VIX popping finally. Fear-to-price ratio anyone?
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And 1294 really caught 'em leaning. Stats favor "production" and production stats favor that long complicated inventory chain in autos. No surprise Ohio PMI pulled itself up from tsunami. These will continue to flatter over summer. No repeat of '10 summer "recession."
Meanwhile even the reformed still doubt after a good 60pts:
S&P 500 Breaks Key Resistance
By xxx Arms
| Quote: | | The 1295 zone in the S&P 500 has been penetrated. Just a few days ago, that level looked as though it would again be a stopping point on the way higher, especially after two very strong days on disturbingly light volume. But now that the index has sailed through that level, it is likely to emerge again as support on a pullback. This may be the start of the next up cycle that we've been looking for, although my projections based on cycles had pointed to a little later in July as the likely turning point. This is the cycle that has been regularly bringing in significant lows every three to four months. (See my RealMoney column dealing with the midyear outlook.) Three things bother me about calling this the definitive low of the cycle. First is the disappointing upside volume that has accompanied the advance. Second... |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2011 7:21 am Post subject: |
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Good times are the market's enemy.
Just speaking short-term however I see sixty SP points of euro-sclerotic double-dip taken back with greater pessimism in the act. This sentiment seems to be clinging at last to a technical end-of-quarter "painting of the tape." Greece and Debt Ceiling is our wall ST. I can see us back to 1350 as institutional money has to chase and margined out commodity players reposition. I see another double-dip a figment of memory by Xmas and have expected this realization to take place faster than last summer's double-dip.
That said, that's about all I see. I've been touting a lost decade in housing for the last four years and while an expected blip this summer will encourage... it will not redeem. Population trends, strong core europe, time, the natural rebalancing of the trade deficit with declining energy costs, more FDI, resurgent manuacturing exports, china's "going out"--and the fact that over half the consumers out there are women will keep us from the "New Normal" scenario.
Not excited by the earnings yield calcs with $100 crude and $4 copper but if china doesn't fall hard (hint: it already did, Chanos, 20m unemployed in three months!) banks will fill in the gap. Zero on savings leads only one way for money that can't be spent on expansion....
Life is better now that CAT and AAPL have visited their 200dma.
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diesel
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| Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2011 3:33 am Post subject: |
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You seem very confident... Key resistance levels havent been taken out yet, volume was anemic, dollar trying to turn.. 2H looks bad to me and 2012 even worse i.e. private sector still in de-leverage mode, current account in persistent deficit and fiscal cuts on the way! No American beacon of growth here folks... Hello recession.... or should I say Japan?
The dollar and long term treasuries remain the place to be... I think I may be the last bear standing?
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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1294.50 on the close....and blatant short; with sentiment crying end of quarter paint job. This is gonna leave 'em in the dust.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2011 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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...Yup, three days of fear for price of one. Not only didn't europe crumble over the weekend and arabia fall into the sea but quite the opposite. We got a Basel resolution--any resolution with any cap levels would have rallied the banks (plus they all are lobbying for max pain here as it will wrap them in implicit govt. guarantees and permanently lower their cost-of-capital) and the retreat in Tripoli. Big thorn taken out of the paw with market flooding with gas.
Last year's model to Sept won't repeated. The market is seizing the day. Greek HAS to pass....so it is not a big bet, whatever happens in 2013. Hedgies should be done for the quarter redemption raise and 4July is a good time in markets.
KCLI is my favorite index 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2011 7:23 am Post subject: |
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$RUT taking the lead....taking off?
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 7:15 am Post subject: |
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Phillips down 12% on lightbulb outlook! When Specialists ruled the exchange this would have been impossible. No wonder institutions buy ETFs over stocks.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 4:20 pm Post subject: |
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CNBC is carrying this headline:....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43469708
....While retail bounces off higher (march) low 200dma and commodity consumers getting a real pull. Go Saudis go. And no one likes this 120pts because there's no apple/google with it. Thats the margin bank.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:41 am Post subject: |
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Crude rollover on tues. Go Saudis....but XOM still 6% above 200dma.
Collins pointing out this morning Micron has closed in red EVERY day in june. That's forced.
It's been telegraphed by EU that Greece would get it's last tranche regardless of what happened at the prelim....which hasn't denied Greece anything at this point. Will be scanning the preferreds in Santander et. al. today. US bank spreads holding solid this morning.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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Big disconnect in HYG an underlying bonds--guess this is the panic we wanted. VIX popping finally. Fear-to-price ratio anyone?
Still can't find euro bank preferreds anywhere close to last year's selloff. BAC preferreds starting to work down there however. Enter the "Last Hour Nemesis."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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Day before yesterday was rollover in Brent Crude (down $6 today): waiting for some comeback action in oil punished transports before even contemplating another buy. Meanwhile Cosco Pacific’s May container throughput numbers showed 17.6% y/y growth. The growth rate is firm and sequential data is also solid.
The gutshot to world bank and sovereign debt (with Ratings downgrade) is showing that some things cannot be priced in--always a dubious concept when pricing macro.
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