QIII - SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS

rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:37 pm Post subject: QIII - SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS

Nice fill of yesterday's gap open. Market does abhor a vacuum indeed.

Woke up late this morning, out of town. Saw Dow down 127pts/bad jobs. Later saw the numbers: should have been easily down twice that. And then we get a rally! That's the best measure this market was seriously short of stock a couple weeks back.
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 8:17 am Post subject:

The china hit keep coming even though a strong reaction on a so-called PMI stat (which was really unchanged) is almost as ill-conceived as trading on official "growth" numbers.

Aug 8, hanging tough though, even here:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LVS:$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72608349990
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:01 am Post subject:

No island bottoms and no 5.49 TRIN.

Not a german parliament reaction today. Snapping out of collective amnesia on US economy.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2011 2:39 pm Post subject:

Market does not believe in island bottoms.

Ft reporting last stance of the hardliners, looking for bigger bank "haircuts"....but, still, look at the picture would ya?...just look at it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/28/business/global/german-leader-reaffirms-backing-for-greece.html?_r=1&hp
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 27, 2011 6:07 am Post subject:

This is a great setup: Greek vote today keeps bears on sidelines--as if it was still about greece. Indeed, default is now the property of the bulls. End-of-month markup is next to hurdle. The wall is high. Twisted Evil

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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:27 pm Post subject:

Crude open interest has essentially been flat since last Tuesday despite a liquidation in prices, which probably indicates that most of the shorts have been wrung out of the market.
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 26, 2011 8:40 am Post subject:

Surprised to XOM up this morn with good money-flow. Cost story was getting out of hand for these guys. Chevron still the heaviest on the Dow.

Maybe the balance sheet is now a place for risk aversion.

Excellent money-flow in DAL despite down price.

Now tested the Buffett BAC buy-in...

What a difference weekly vs. daily:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p40259728727

Look at all that green in the financials:

http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/
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diesel · Posted: Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:16 pm Post subject:

Sold my long bond position into operation twist but continue to hold $USD. I think its still 50/50 which way we go here. Deficit should be supportive for modest GDP growth but there are lots of black swans around [Euro, Deficit super committee, China slowing, EM slowing etc]. I would rather sit and wait here. Henry has the right idea IMO..
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rffrydr · Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2011 7:20 am Post subject:

This has been the pattern: steady markets on friday-monday, reversing trends from last winter. Most dismissing friday as "treading water" or short covering. But the reversal in the futures was impressive and little details like DAL up over 7% are catching my eye. The DAX turn at 61.8 is probably the best. Aug 8 still stands.

Industrials might be short covering but with even lowly BAC up, it's time we get a crude dividend. On that score would have liked to see Brent spread come in--indeed Brent's hold is beginning to seem suspicious.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:50 am Post subject:

Like trans up healthy and DAL, 5.5%, in particular, even with market treading. Still early.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:25 am Post subject:

A Nike moment.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:28 am Post subject:

Here's one:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/berkshire-hathaway-falls-below-100-000.html
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nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 2408

This has the 'feel' of somebody getting blown up.

Smelling the scent of selling the flowers to water the weeds.
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rffrydr · Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:18 am Post subject:

355 down and Kansas City Life (KCLI) hanging tuff. Up a percent on global upchuck. Tornadoes and 20% discount to book are actually worth something Razz

--not much though.

The all-market margin call does not seem to be shaking hi-yield or corporates......I think we need to give the trophy to the little guy--and give him break on the networth calcs.

Big gap down on TIF.... a lot of weak dollar tourist money through Manhattan in that stock. We'll see if the Rich follow along.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:20 pm Post subject:

Buck now above '08 crash lows, even lowly china (CAF) hanging above '08,08 lows, most good stuff (other than apple. like MSFT) still well above that date and, pending another month in Libya we should be cracking Brent.

Nice day for Mortgages (and high yield)....if that's what bothers you.

Now we know the FED's limitations. Watch for BOE to give us a push in OCT.
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:49 pm Post subject:

Take a billion leave a billion:

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/396909/september-15-2011/take-a-billion--leave-a-billion?xrs=share_copy

Laughing

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