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Real Estate Bust in China? Replies |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:14 am Post subject: |
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This is what really kicked us in the teeth:
| Quote: | | Talk of Chinese Regulators Tightening Shadow Lending: Chinese developers kicked off the swan dive with talk of regulators pushing companies to report dealings with Greentown China Holdings which is one of the sketchier China property developer credits out there. While it doesn’t have much high yield out TMM gets to about a 1350 odd spread on their CBs. IG it ain’t. The implication of this is that China is getting concerned about either shadow / trust lending (more tightening) or thinks that some developers are close to failing (real estate market terminal). TMM don’t like the credit or the equity in this space and do not see an easy solution here: either China loosens or a lot of these companies will have big problems. It does not help that SOE developers are rapidly cutting prices on apartments to raise cash in the interim. TMM have learnt that in a crisis, just because your model says something in cheap does not make it cheap if the drivers or the derating are still very much in force. And on that point, we can’t see what could make any of that improve barring a pretty massive Chinese stimulus or a move towards more price driven credit controls (higher rates) since we’re getting to the outer limits of what the real estate sector can take from a credit point of view. Now TMM would like to point out means that when we are at the outer limits of credit the equity may be worth zero. And don’t get TMM started on the solar sector where senior secured offshore high yield for LDK solar now trades with a forty-something bid at some dealers. Suffice to say, for a number of sectors in China its high noon at the OK Corral. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2011 9:21 am Post subject: |
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China's "landing" probably depends more on our "take off."
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 7:24 am Post subject: |
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Chanos talks over his shorting ways in the company of El Erian:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000016651
His point on medical care in the US (despite his covering here) I take to heart: "in 15 years half of us will be operating on the other half..... What can't happen won't happen."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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Chanos sticking to his (tempered) guns:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1691090837&play=1
"Unit sales flat over last 14 months." He's hanging onto my long-given-up short: steel.
"Neo-mercantilism" is haunting Joe Kernan and they join in holding "invisible hands."
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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Not really fair to pick on Mongolia but here's the story anyway:
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“This is a city of the future,” Li Hong, a government official, said during a recent tour of Kangbashi. “We are going to build this into a center of politics, culture and technology. That is our dream.”
But the future has not yet arrived, despite Mr. Li’s best efforts to persuade a visitor otherwise. |
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/business/global/20ghost.html?pagewanted=2&ref=business
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 18, 2010 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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Seems like '07 again?
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue May 04, 2010 8:26 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Property: New Regulations to Limit Speculative House Purchases
On April 30, the Beijing Government issued new property regulations requiring commercial banks to suspend issuing third home or above mortgages and loans to non-local residents who cannot provide evidence of local tax payments or social insurance contributions for at least one year. It also released a temporary regulation saying that one family can only purchase one new commercial house in Beijing.
NH
Beijing?s property market regulations are stricter than before, focusing on restricting speculative investment. In addition, demand may be restricted, as families hoping to upgrade from one house to another would not receive preferential mortgage policies, as the new home would be classified as a second home. As a result of the regulations, short-term housing transactions are likely to decrease, and developers may postpone or suspend construction to reduce supply.
The notice also called for strengthening supervision over property sales. Developers with projects that have pre-sale approval or the registration for existing home sales should release the information about all available houses within three days and sell the properties in accordance with the declared market price. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:16 am Post subject: |
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It's probably NOT going to be about second and third homes:
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 7:15 am Post subject: |
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HK residential RE "last madness":
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auFNiiN1tB7Y&pos=2
With down payments moved up from 40% to 50% that would define it's own madness here. Easy to forget that china was down over a percent coming into friday.
I love this stuff:
| Quote: | | “We don’t think that’s the end of the policy crackdown on the property market and some shoes have yet to drop,” said Larry Wan, deputy chief investment officer at KBC-Goldstate Fund Management Co., which oversees about $583 million. |
How many shoes are there? This typifies the copy-paste terminology plucked from western usage in speaking about economic matters and makes listening to chinese accounts of their markets so frustrating. What matters here is that the govt. made a proclamation and the billionaire backed it. It underscores that when going BRICS you are going somewhere else.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 8:19 am Post subject: |
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Beijing’s February resold home sales dropped 38% by volume to 2,790 units. Second hand home prices fell 4.6% m/m.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Mar 05, 2010 7:53 am Post subject: |
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Property "crackdown":
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5.wimzwPif4&pos=5
| Quote: | Wen is trying now to rebalance the economy away from investment and infrastructure spending, toward consumption. The government pledged today to raise health and social security outlays by more than 8 percent in 2010 and expand pensions, efforts that may help buttress consumption in the world’s third- largest economy. Transportation spending will be cut 2.7 percent.
Slower Lending
The government affirmed its target of reducing new loans by 22 percent to 7.5 trillion yuan this year after property prices climbed the most in 21 months in January. |
\
Healthcare proceeds apace...in china.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2010 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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Chinese housing prices keep on rising:
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=2&art_id=94503&sid=27045253&con_type=1&d_str=20100212&fc=8
| Quote: | Friday, February 12, 2010
Home prices in the mainland have continued to rise even as Beijing tries to cool the red-hot property sector.
Overall, prices jumped 9.5 percent in January year-on-year and were 1.7 percentage points higher than in December.
New homes last month cost 11.3 percent more than a year before, and were up 2.2 percentage points from December.
Prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose 1.3 percent in January from the previous month, while new homes cost 1.7 percent more, data from National Bureau of Statistics showed.
Beijing, eager to moderate a rapid rise in the cost of homes, has implemented measures to curb speculation.
The central bank has also ordered commercial banks to be prudent in lending to the property sector to avert potential asset bubbles. Two cities on Hainan island recorded the largest year-on-year growth in prices for new housing. In Haikou they surged 35.1 percent and Sanya 31.2 percent.
The two cities on the holiday island also had the largest month-on-month growth in prices for new homes.
Guangzhou came in third with prices rising 22.4 percent from a year ago, while homes in Wenzhou and Jinhua were 16.9 percent more expensive.
Homes in the secondary market were up 8 percent in January from the previous year and 0.9 percent from December. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:30 am Post subject: |
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It's working: though, lacking a "crash," we may be settling into the Hong Kong cyclical model of boomette and bustette. In theory there's alot more property in China but perhaps not in the right location location location.
| Quote: | Michael McDonough
Chinese Real Estate Transactions Plummet
2/2/2010 12:33 AM EST
Concerns over the future impact Chinese policies on the real estate sector have nearly halted transaction in the sector as buyers expect prices will come down. According to the China Securities Journal, the volume of second-hand property transactions fell nearly 70% m/m in January, with new sale transactions falling by more than 45%. This news likely will not bode well for the Chinese real estate sector, especially companies like EHouse (EJ) who rely on volumes.
Further aggravating China's real estate sector were comments by Beijing's vice-mayor picked up by China Daily who said "I want to make it clear - Beijing is determined to curb the price hike." He added, "I believe Beijing's property price will not experience wide fluctuation this year."
In other news, China's Premier, Wen Jiabao, had the following to say at a government meeting this morning, "the world economy has entered the post-crisis period and is expected to see a new round of growth." Wen added, "we must maintain continuity and stability of our economic policies to consolidate our recovering economic growth momentum." |
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