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HenryTo
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 Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:58 pm Post subject: Retail Industry Trends |
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Retailiers already bracing for the worst. The $64 billion question is, as always, how bad will this get and how much of this has already been factored into retail stocks?
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Retail Holiday Season May Be Modest
Tuesday October 30, 5:15 pm ET
By Betsy Vereckey, AP Business Writer
Sluggish US Economy May Weigh on Holiday Sales for National Retailers
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. retailers are bracing for a difficult holiday season, some industry watchers say, as higher gas prices and a sluggish housing market are expected to continue crimping consumer spending.
At a conference on Tuesday hosted by the Retail Marketing Society, a membership-based organization focused on the retail industry, some industry executives said holiday sales may be sluggish.
"This holiday season will be somewhat Grinch-like," said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research.
Steidtmann said retailers are preparing for the worst, especially given tightening credit and problems in the housing market. Steidtmann said it will be at least 18 months to two years before the housing market bottoms.
Merrill Lynch analyst Jaime Sheinheit said higher energy costs will weigh on consumer spending, noting that retailers have had trouble getting customers in the door. However, it's hard to tell whether the sluggish traffic is related to softening consumer spending or warm weather, Sheinheit said.
"Cold weather may spark shopping," she said.
In the luxury sector, Sheinheit said handbag maker Coach Inc. has warned of sluggish traffic in its U.S. stores. The company recently issued a fiscal second-quarter same-store sales outlook it called "conservative." Same-store sales are sales at stores open at least a year, and the industry metric is considered a key barometer of a retailer's health.
David Wolfe, creative director at Doneger Group, a buying office, said Coach has reached its saturation point with aspirational customers, who may not have the money to spend on these handbags but still want quality at a price.
Meanwhile, wealthy customers may help other luxury retailers this season, like Tiffany & Co., as spending patterns among the affluent tend to stay the same, regardless of changes in the economy.
Sectors that might fare better include teen retailers, Sheinheit said, noting that the income of their main customer, teenagers, usually stays the same. Companies in this sector include American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
One company that may emerge stronger, Sheinheit said, is AnnTaylor Stores Corp., which has leaner inventory and a new product assortment at its lower-priced Loft division. In August, the company said it increased markdowns to reduce inventory heading into fall seasons at both its Ann Taylor and Loft stores.
"There is a lot of opportunity for Loft to improve margins this holiday season," Sheinheit said. "As always, what it comes down to is having the right product."
Last edited by HenryTo on Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:40 am; edited 2 times in total |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Dec 23, 2008 9:51 am Post subject: |
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Weather not doing anything for us. Toys good; electronics no good:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aPBiTiIs9PwI
| Quote: | | Sales in November and December may drop as much as 2 percent, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today, more than the previously projected 1 percent. That would make it the worst Christmas sales season in at least four decades. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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From Mauldin:
| Quote: | | ....As a sign of how consumers are delaying their purchases in anticipation of even lower prices, only 47% of shoppers have completed their holiday activity versus 53% a year ago. We regard this as evidence that deflation expectations are creeping in. |
Maybe they just aren't buying.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: |
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Retail liquidations having a major short-term impact on their competitors, starting with Linens & Things and Circuit City:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122904142826800109.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
| Quote: | In the last few weeks, retailers ranging from Signet Jewelers Ltd. to Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. blamed competitors' liquidations, in part, for sharply reduced revenue and profit in the fiscal third quarter.
On Thursday, KB Toys Inc. said it has returned to Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will liquidate all of its more than 400 mall-based and outlet stores. The company said it plans to quickly start going-out-of business sales "to take advantage of the last two weeks of the holiday selling season."
Wednesday, Office Depot Inc. announced it plans to shutter 126 stores through next year. |
Sometimes, it is just a matter of getting you into the stores:
| Quote: | Circuit City's liquidation sales show how consumers can be drawn despite sometimes higher prices.
"It's funny that we've had so much more business since we announced we were going out of business," said Henry Cooper, a salesman at a Dallas Circuit City store, one of 154 the company is closing. "But many of these items have been much cheaper at various times before the sale." A 42-inch Sony LCD high-definition television recently selling at a 30% discount for $959.99 was $100 less weeks before, Mr. Cooper said. Now in the sale's fourth week, Circuit City has increased the markdowns.
Still, librarian Mary Norman said she spotted a Denon stereo receiver Thursday she thought was a good deal at a Parker, Colo., Circuit City. It was marked down 40% to $329.99. But when she called her fiancé to say she was going to buy it, he searched on Amazon.com and found a new one for more than $50 less -- $279.32 with no shipping charges or sales tax. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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Rubedo
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| Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/spinning-black-friday-retail-sales/
Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales
By Barry Ritholtz - December 1st, 2008, 7:11AM
A few things you can count on every year around this time:
1. Sales data for Black Friday will be touted by biased interest groups. They are invariably have an upside bias;
2. Headline writers will get it wrong
3. Survey data will be taken as the equivalent of actual sales;
4. Strong forecasts will be subsequently proven wrong;
Such is the current situation with the Black Friday sales data, with reports still trickling in from around the country.
The WSJ goes for a hat trick of errors, starting with this article’s headline:
• Holiday Shopping Off to Strong Start
What’s wrong with this? First, as opposed to actual sales data, they rely on a “survey of 3,370 shoppers, the National Retail Federation estimated shoppers spent an average of $372.57 over the weekend, up 7.2% over last year’s $347.55.” The National Retail Federation is hardly the objective group you want crafting (or hiring 3rd parties to create) survey questions; 2nd, we know that humans are terrible at forecasting their own behaviors. Historically, their projections have had little correlation with their actual spending patterns. And third, the headline is belied by the details contained in the article. (MarketWatch was no better)
The NYT did no better. They wrote (Deep Discounts Draw Shoppers, but Not Profits):
“The National Retail Federation, adding up sales Thursday through Saturday and projected sales for Sunday, said that each shopper spent about 7 percent more this year than last year. Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 Friday though Sunday, according to the federation, a trade group”
No, the NRF did not “add up sales.” They added up self-reported answers to survey questions. As we have seen over the past few years, there is a world of difference between the two.
One of the better data sources of what the retail season might look like comes from Comscore, which tracks actual online retail sales.
“ComScore on Sunday reported that online, nontravel retail sales on the Friday after Thanksgiving, traditionally a big day for consumer spending, reached $534 million. That’s up from the same day a year ago, but just barely–online retail sales rose just 1 percent, from $531 million…
But for the four weeks of November through Friday the 28th, retail e-commerce dropped to $10.4 billion, down 4 percent from $10.8 billion for the same period in 2007, according to ComScore. For the full holiday season, even Friday’s slight gain may look good. ComScore predicted that for November and December, online sales will be flat compared with 2007, coming in again at $29.2 billion.”
Bloomberg also got it wrong, but at least provided some context:
“U.S. shoppers, lured by discounts of as much as 70 percent, came out in greater numbers than expected and spent more this holiday weekend than last year, though those figures may not foreshadow a stronger holiday season.
The National Retail Federation, AN INTEREST GROUP FOR RETAILERS AND SHOPPING MALLS, said 172 million shoppers went to stores and Web sites, a 17 percent increase from a year ago and more than a forecast of 128 million. SHOPPERS SAID THAT they spent an average of $372.57, up 7.2 percent from last year, according to an e-mailed survey conducted for the NRF by BIGresearch, a Worthington, Ohio-based polling firm. SHOPPER SURVEYS HAVE A TRACK RECORD OF BEING UNRELIABLE FORECASTORS OF BEHAVIOR.
The early turnout may not be enough to overcome consumers’ reluctance to spend as they cope with climbing unemployment and housing costs and shrinking values in their stock holdings. The NRF said its forecast remains that holiday sales will rise 2.2 percent to $470.4 billion, the slowest growth in six years.” (My edits are ALL CAPS)
In an ideal media world, Bloomberg would strike nearly all of the middle paragraph. Alternatively, they could add information explaining that the NRF is a PR group for retailers, and that their surveys have not been historically accurate forecasts of actual spending.
Later this week, we should get Master Card’s ShopperPulse data. It is the actual measurement of what people spent (via their MC Credit Card) and has proven to be more reliable than either foot traffic, surveys and other biased sources.
To get a better view of this year’s holiday spending, back out the fuel purchases (whivhmay appear depressed due to less usage and lower prices). You also need to adjust for some of the gains in online sales, which are likely to be up 20% as part of a secular trend towards online shopping, not increased retail sales. |
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Rubedo
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| Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Black-Friday-e-commerce-spending/story.aspx?guid=%7BF1F02DD8%2D86E7%2D430E%2DB1B4%2D0ED1A0BE0AC9%7D
Black Friday e-commerce spending edges up 1%
But ComScore report shows overall holiday sales down so far this year
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:27 p.m. EST Nov. 30, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, saw a 1% gain in online shopping from last year, even as broader seasonal sales are trending toward a decline, according to digital marketing analyst firm ComScore.
This year's Black Friday saw $534 million in online spending, ComScore said. Online sales for Thanksgiving Day, meanwhile, totaled $288 million, a 6% rise over 2007's results.
However, the survey added that for the holiday season to date -- which ComScore said covered Nov. 1 through Nov. 28 -- only $10.41 billion had been spent online, marking a 4% decline versus the equivalent days last year.
"Early reports suggest that Black Friday sales in retail stores were slightly better than anticipated in this depressed retail climate, and that performance apparently extended to the online channel, which saw sales on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday combined increase 2% versus year ago," said ComScore Chairman Gian Fulgoni.
Data released Saturday from ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said that Black Friday sales at physical stores rose 3% from last year. See full story.
"It's probable that on Black Friday consumers responded positively to the very aggressive promotions and discounts being offered in retail stores, so it will be important to see how they respond to similarly attractive deals being offered online on Cyber Monday, the traditional kick-off to the online holiday shopping season," Fulgoni said.
Black Friday refers to the day after Thanksgiving, so called because many retailers begin to turn a profit on that day, moving from "red ink" to "black ink." Sales for the day are seen as a key harbinger for the overall holiday season.
Cyber Monday, a more recent invention, is the Monday following Thanksgiving and serves as the online equivalent to Black Friday. The idea is that many shoppers will wait until they are back at their offices after the holiday in order to make their Internet purchases using faster computers available at work. While the advent of rapid home-based Internet connections has made consumers less likely to shop from their offices, the day is still seen as a retail bellwether. End of Story |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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Latest retail sales for "Black Friday" are pretty decent - especially in light of the fact that some retailers started early by staying open on Thanksgiving Day (Thursday):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arRTxyMCNil4&refer=home
We were at the Century City Mall yesterday at 3pm PST and it was totally packed. May again scout out the malls today to get a sense of what folks are buying. |
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rffrydr
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