Reversal candlestick picture?

billyg · Junior Poster Joined: 19 May 2008 Posts: 29

I’m hesitant to type this little forecast because I’m typically wrong, but I can’t help myself.
I received an email with the heading “Why Dow 2,000 is not impossible” 2 times in my inbox. I hear we still don’t have enough fear and capitulation. I read a lot of comparisons to the 2000-2002 bear market. I read everybody claiming they warned us of this and we should move to cash – now! And they all could be right…but I see another picture forming.
We had a nice daily Doji on the S&P Friday. I believe we will get a weekly hammer or bullish engulfing next week and I believe we will finish the monthly with a HUGE monthly hammer on all of the indexes…which will be THE bottom to finish 2008 close to flat for the year.
Or to cover my butt like some of my newsletter writers - It could get much worse before it gets better and we are in for some really tough months ahead. That way I can claim to have "told you so" either way.

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2011 8:49 am Post subject:

Even better, this view from high upon the peaks in Switzerland:

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Dec 24, 2011 8:45 am Post subject:

diesel · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:32 am Post subject:

I have to admit I am getting negative based on what I have seen this week in the markets. I have rotated into quite defensive sectors for my longs and bought a few hedges under the portfolio to protect against further downside. Its been a trading paradise for the nimble though. Next week should be very interesting.. Crying or Very sad

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billyg · Junior Poster Joined: 19 May 2008 Posts: 29

Looking at the monthly charts I can't believe my eyes. Wow! The DOW, and S&P are below their monthly 200EMA for the first time as far back as my stockcharts will go. Technically this market looks broken. My hope for a massive monthly hammer looks bleak. Maybe we just had a 2-week double bottom retest? We better have a strong week next week. Even the COT charts look bad as S&P commercials are net short 40K while the dumb money is net long 67K. Not good. We need a spark within the next 2 weeks with FOMC, election and payroll report coming up. I heard this quote on CNBC tonight about Obama and I agree 100%.
"I'm not going to vote for the guy I think he is a fool, but he may give the market what it needs - some confidence." Who cares if he's a fool. Perception is reality in this world. Maybe he will be the hero. We need a hero.

gregf · Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:38 pm Post subject:

Just fwiw,

IBD said that yesterday was a follow through day - which is a green light to IBD'ers to buy the market (that's a really over simplified version, but, it is friday at 8:37pm EST and I am reading a financial forum so does that tell you my state of mind Wink

)

billyg · Junior Poster Joined: 19 May 2008 Posts: 29

We had daily doji candles last friday and now we have a weekly doji on most indexes with a higher low. We have 2 full weeks before the end of October. We will need a strong push to get that monthly hammer I'm looking for. What a picture that will be.
Time will tell, but I'm going to daytrade double inverse funds while I trade this bear until we finally turn. "Trade a bear - ride a bull."
A monthly hammer would be a good sign that the ship is slowly turning.

rffrydr · Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 11:32 am Post subject:

That's what the europeans said about their export machine, 60% of which went elsewhere--where they traded very heavily with the US. You can only sell so many German toy machines to china if americans don't want to buy toys anymore.

I'm hip to a "V" bottom. It is a crisis after all. And like most crises it can be solved with a flipoftheswitch--a very big switch. I'm not hip to the monster rally. The new savingss culture is another thing: think we're gonna spend a lot of time under 1250 after we finally hit it....unconfortably under. It's all about bonds for me now.
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pinocchio · Newbie Joined: 20 Mar 2008 Posts: 18 Location: Switzerland

I know the friday candlestick for the Dow looks promising, because that pattern often marks a temporary bottom

We might see a technical rally, but the REAL rally will only begin when dust, smoke and panic have settled down and a certain confidence has returned to the market; I think this rally will be huge

What we are seeing now is the 2000-2002 bear market in fast forward; institutional holders are running away from the market in a pace and fury we last time saw in summer 2002

Friday, the european and asian markets crashed and the Dow was not too bad, but right now, nobody knows whether we have seen the last panic sellings

Maybe those crashes trigger another wave of selling, and this could pull down the US markets again... I don't know

Problem is, the whole thing is more and more seen as a worlwide crisis - some weeks ago, we Europeans still thought this whole mess was just another American stupidity that had a rather limited impact to the rest of the world; stock markets are down, okay, but as soon as those stupid Americans fix their problem, it will be good again; that perception has changed dramatically over the past few weeks

So, if you go cash even now and if you are ready to jump into the markets when the REAL rally begins, you probabably won't lose too much (only the gains of a technical rally). Take the big swings, not the small ones