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Russian Liquidity
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 11:50 am    Post subject: Russian Liquidity Reply with quote

A further sign of deteriorating liquidity conditions in Russia:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atjaPNVy1xtg

Quote:
``It's very hard to place anything at higher end of range right now because there is not enough money on the market,'' said Fenkner, who didn't buy the shares. ``There hasn't been enough inflows of funds either by foreign or by Russian investors.''
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Creeping state intervention, nationalization, etc., now just part of everyday life in Russia:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/25/business/ruble.php

This quote is a classic:

Quote:
Outside of oil and natural gas, the Kremlin has consolidated control over aircraft manufacturing, domestic automakers, diamond mines and other industries. Gref, however, said state intervention in sectors other than oil and gas should be seen as temporary, merely an effort by the government to restructure ailing Soviet-era industries. They will eventually be re-privatized "up to 100 percent," he said.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Goldman re-enters Russia in a big way. Goldman usually has good timing, but not in this case, as it is now late to the party. The last time it entered Russia in a big way was June 1998 - just a month before a significant peak in the U.S. market and a few months before the peak of the Russian Crisis:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aERIsR66Zjw4
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Russian bank jitters. Central bank takes junk as collateral. Another false start or cracks inthe EEM facade?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2ed4f528-6870-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F2ed4f528-6870-11dc-b475-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kazakh posterboy?

Quote:
Tim Ash, emerging markets strategist at Bear Stearns, said it was "remarkable" that the five-year CDS on Kazakhstan was trading at such levels when there was no actual underlying sovereign debt to trigger any such default. He said: "The market thus seems to be pricing in a new eurobond issue at some point over the next five years, presumably aimed at bailing out troubled banks."



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa6f8c82-7213-11dc-8960-0000779fd2ac.html
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Markus
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HenryTo wrote:
Creeping state intervention, nationalization, etc., now just part of everyday life in Russia:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/25/business/ruble.php

This quote is a classic:

Quote:
Outside of oil and natural gas, the Kremlin has consolidated control over aircraft manufacturing, domestic automakers, diamond mines and other industries. Gref, however, said state intervention in sectors other than oil and gas should be seen as temporary, merely an effort by the government to restructure ailing Soviet-era industries. They will eventually be re-privatized "up to 100 percent," he said.


It is a normal situation for this country and for the style of antirecessionary governing of Russia, so to say historically assembled. What is important for an investor? Stability.
And it is present. I wanted to mark about monopolization ... The French Company won auction for exploitation of gas and oil deposits. It means, there are instruments on which it is possible to gain income at Gas and Oil in Russia.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like Hammer's Occidental in the Soviet days? THAT profit proved to be the exception.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A "considered" opinion on Bulgarian RE:

http://financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2007/1219.html
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2008 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even Russia - with oil prices at $130 a barrel - isn't immune from the credit crunch:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axGOIdIaLDKs&refer=home
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2008 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

...or, hedge fund attacks. That's a funny way of framing an article projecting such a slowdown.

This is corroberated by all the "screaming buys" at the last gold show. And see above on crude. The credit crunch works in mysterious ways.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Russia taking a hit and taking the spotlight from the Olympics opening ceremony today:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amqPrh9oTJws&refer=home

Quote:
The ruble dropped the most in 3 1/2 years and Russia's 30-stock Micex Index fell to a 22-month low after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said ``war has started'' in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia.

Credit-defaults swaps, a measure of bond risk, climbed the most since March after Georgia's Interior Ministry said jets bombed the towns of Gori and Kareli near the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

The ruble fell the most against the central bank's basket of dollars and euros since that gauge was introduced in February 2005. The Micex plummeted, bringing its decline this year to 28 percent after oil slid 19 percent. Russian ``volunteers'' are pouring over the border to help defend South Ossetia from Georgian forces, Putin told U.S. President George W. Bush in Beijing, according to Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fighting in Georgia escalates. Look for CDS spreads in Russia to widen further come Monday:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUbmUMwZhd74&refer=home

Quote:
Hunter said flawed diplomacy was in part responsible for the clash. ``This is an issue that was allowed to get out of hand by people who haven't thought through what NATO membership really means, and on the Russian side doing too much muscle flexing over a country that is a pretty small place,'' he said.
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conflict certainly putting South Ossetia and Abkhazia on the map:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552908.stm
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HenryTo
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cyber-warfare on the Georgian President's website:

http://www.technologyreview.com/Wire/21235/?nlid=1268

Quote:
The Web site of the president of Georgia, the small nation that is battling Russian forces over a breakaway enclave, was moved to a U.S. hosting facility this weekend after allegedly being attacked by Russian hackers.

The original servers located in the country of Georgia were "flooded and blocked by Russians" over the weekend, Nino Doijashvili, chief executive of Atlanta-based hosting company Tulip Systems Inc., said Monday.

The Georgian-born Doijashvili happened to be on vacation in Georgia when fighting broke out on Friday. She cold-called the government to offer her help and transferred president.gov.ge and rustavi2.com, the Web site of a prominent Georgian TV station, to her company's servers Saturday.

Speaking via cell phone from Georgia, Doijashvili said the attacks, traced to Moscow and St. Petersburg, are continuing on the U.S. servers. The president's site was intermittently available midday Monday. Route-tracing performed by the AP confirmed that the sites were hosted at Tulip.

Steven Adair, one of the volunteers at the U.S.-based Shadowserver Foundation, which tracks Internet attacks, said they had noticed commands to attack Georgian sites over the weekend being issued to "botnets," or networks of computers that have been surreptitiously subverted by hackers. The computers are used to send bogus traffic to targeted sites, slowing them down or in some cases bringing them down.
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rffrydr
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This impulse towards what most investors have accepted as "stability," like all extremes, becomes its opposite:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-easteurope19-2008aug19,0,6812498.story
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