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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: S. Korea |
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That other thing about SK:
Economist Oct. 6
IT IS a place of mythical beauty—its peaks and pine forests the stuff of songs and scroll paintings—but Mount Kumgang, just on the northern side of the divided Korean peninsula, has become a symbol of all that is troubled about South Korea's policy towards its bad neighbour. Since 1998 the South has run a tourist resort at Mount Kumgang, which 1.4m South Koreans have visited. For Roh Moo-hyun, South Korea's president, this (along with a miserable light-industrial park at Kaesong) was proof that his strategy of engaging with North Korea, known as the “sunshine policy”, was bearing fruit. But since North Korea exploded a nuclear device on October 9th, if not before, the fruit has been foul.
The point of engaging North Korea was to coax Kim Jong Il and his regime to behave better. Engagement was supposed to bring economic benefits to the benighted North; a modicum of mutual trust was meant to lessen its threat. These assumptions were badly upset in July, when Mr Kim conducted missile tests; his nuclear test has blown them away. Mr Roh's administration, which has another year to run, is discredited, its popularity rating in the teens. This week both the defence minister and the minister for unification offered to resign.
Quite right too, say Mr Roh's opponents. In particular, the nuclear tests have stirred anger at the money given over several years to a foul regime: public and private money, above the table and under it. More thoughtful critics say the sunshine policy was originally a sensible one, meant to transform the North with a view to reunification. But engagement, particularly under Mr Roh, became an end in itself. Thereby, it can be argued, the policy changed the South more than the North.
How much money it has cost the South may never be known. At the government's urging, Hyundai, a family-held conglomerate, sent some $500m discreetly to Mr Kim to secure a historic summit in 2000 between the Dear Leader and the architect of the sunshine policy, the then president, Kim Dae-jung (no relation). The opposition Grand National Party (GNP) claims that, officially, some $1.2 billion of government cash has gone to North Korea since 1998 (not counting lashings of humanitarian aid, now temporarily suspended). The government disputes that figure but, amazingly, no full audit trail exists.
Among other things, the South Korean government has subsidised visits to Mount Kumgang. These subsidies, it promises, will now stop, but a big chunk of the revenues from the resort—the 40,000 visitors in a usual month pay up to $500 each—will continue to go straight into the regime's pocket. In all, Hyundai, which built the resort and runs it, has sent $850m in royalties to Mr Kim and his cronies.
America's secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, and its envoy for North Korea, Christopher Hill, who visited South Korea last week, are critical of the Mount Kumgang resort, which they believe generates cash for weapons of mass destruction. In addition, in talks this week over a proposed free-trade agreement between South Korea and the United States, American negotiators made it plain that imports from North Korea through the Kaesong zone could play no part in such a deal—thereby undermining the zone's rationale. The GNP has criticised both projects.
Yet Mr Roh and the ruling Uri party continue to defend them. They are, after all, the only fruits of engagement. During Ms Rice's visit, Ban Ki-moon, South Korea's foreign minister, who will soon become secretary-general of the United Nations, emphasised the “positive aspects” of the industrial park, as well as the “symbolic” importance of Kumgang in reconciling the two Koreas. The Uri party's chairman, Kim Geun-tae, goes further, claiming the Kumgang tours are needed more than ever.
Though Mr Roh's government has given its approval to stiff American-led sanctions against North Korea, which were passed by the UN Security Council on October 14th, it in fact shows little appetite for confrontation. That is partly because many South Koreans share a blind faith in the ultimate benign nature of the North's brutal regime—about which they are remarkably ill-informed. On October 25th North Korea said the South's participation in the sanctions would be a “declaration of confrontation” for which it would pay “a high price”.
Most Southerners think the North's crude nuclear capability does not represent a big new threat to them. North Korean artillery, after all, has long been positioned within range of Seoul's northern suburbs. Meanwhile, South Korea's predominant political consensus, says Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul, is to seek gradual change north of the border in ways that might eventually narrow the vast income gap between the two sides. Tightening the screws too far risks goading Mr Kim to strike back. A collapse of the regime, followed by reunification, would impose unbearable costs on the South. Even the opposition GNP, says Park Jin, a member of the party, believes in maintaining dialogue with the North, while adding some pressure.
It is a path that is likely to lead South Korea increasingly into conflict with America, which wants stiffer confrontation with the North. In annual bilateral defence talks last week in Washington, DC, America's secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld, pressed South Korea to join the American-led Proliferation Security Initiative, which is designed to interdict ships carrying material for weapons of mass destruction. The South Korean government is vacillating, fearing that this would rile the North and so increase the nuclear threat. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:20 am Post subject: |
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The advantage of running a country as a gulag is that internal "tension" should have next to no impact on anyone else. I don't see how this isn't good news. China is obviously the model anyone on the inside would want to pursue. Too much of a good thing however and S. Korea has some serious investment commitments in store.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2011 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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Stratfor on potential North Korean leadership transition.
| Quote: | North Korean leader Kim Jong Il died the morning of Dec. 17, according to an official North Korean News broadcast at noon Dec. 19. Initial reports say Kim died of a heart attack brought on by fatigue while on board a train. Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008, and his health has been in question since.
Kim’s death comes as North Korea was preparing for a live leadership transition in 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim’s father and North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung, a transition that had been intended to avoid the three years of internal chaos the younger Kim faced after his father’s death in 1994. Kim Jong Il had delayed choosing a successor from among his sons to avoid allowing any one to build up their own support base independent of their father. His expected successor, son Kim Jong Un, was only designated as the heir apparent in 2010 after widespread rumors in 2009 and thus has had little experience and training to run North Korea and little time to solidify his own support base within the various North Korean leadership elements. Now, it is likely that Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, will rule behind the scenes as Kim Jong Un trains on the job. Like the transition from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il, it is likely that North Korea will focus internally over the next few years as the country’s elite adjust to a new balance of power. In any transition, there are those who will gain and those who are likely to be disenfranchised, and this competition can lead to internal conflicts.
The immediate question is the status of the North Korean military. Kim Jong Un is officially the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers Party of Korea and was recently made a four-star general, but he has no military experience. If the military remains committed to keeping the Kim family at the pinnacle of leadership, then things will likely hold, at least in the near term. There were no reports from South Korea that North Korea’s military had entered a state of heightened alert following Kim Jong Il’s death, suggesting that the military is on board with the transition for now. If that holds, the country likely will remain stable, if internally tense.
Kim’s death does not necessarily put an end to recently revived discussions with the United States and others over North Korea’s nuclear program. Pyongyang has increasingly felt pressured by its growing dependence on China, and these nuclear talks provide the potential to break away from that dependence in the long term. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:52 am Post subject: |
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View from the top:
http://www.economist.com/node/21538104
| Quote: | | Twenty years ago, this background would itself have seemed a dream for anyone foolish enough to be trying to fish the Cheonggyecheon. Its waters, dirty and hidden, were trapped beneath a roaring highway; its surroundings were a slum of sweatshops, metal bashing and poverty. The reclamation of the Cheonggyecheon, one of the great urban-regeneration projects of the world, has about it the air of a dream achieved. So, to a large extent, has the Korea through which the stream flows. |
| Quote: | But this way of doing things works only when others have blazed a trail before you. As you join the ranks of the richest, you run out of beaten track to follow. Your economy comes to depend more on innovation and on learning from your own mistakes than on improving on the successes of others. The South Korean model of 1960-2010 remains an example for developing countries; but Korea itself now needs something new.
The Korean model had four distinctive features: a Stakhanovite workforce; powerful conglomerates; relatively weak smaller firms; and high social cohesion. All these are either coming under strain, or in need of reassessment, or both. |
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:26 am Post subject: |
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And ratcheting back down: mellow six weeks in face of livefire exercises and now, today, N. Korea calling for "talks."
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 7:52 am Post subject: |
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First time knee-jerk "buy on sabre-rattling" hasn't paid off. Price alone will make this event an "event."
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:32 pm Post subject: |
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Uncle Kim wants to go out with a bang:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/world/asia/21intel.html?_r=1&hp
North Koreans Unveil Vast New Plant for Nuclear Use
By DAVID E. SANGER
Published: November 20, 2010
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Close LinkedinDiggMixxMySpaceYahoo! BuzzPermalink WASHINGTON — North Korea showed a visiting American nuclear scientist last week a vast new facility it secretly and rapidly built to enrich uranium, confronting the Obama administration with the prospect that the country is preparing to expand its nuclear arsenal or build a far more powerful type of atomic bomb.
Whether the calculated revelation is a negotiating ploy by North Korea or a signal that it plans to accelerate its weapons program even as it goes through a perilous leadership change, it creates a new challenge for President Obama at a moment when his program for gradual, global nuclear disarmament appears imperiled at home and abroad. The administration hurriedly began to brief allies and lawmakers on Saturday — and braced for an international debate over the repercussions. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Oct 29, 2010 11:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | North Korean troops have fired across the border into South Korean territory, reports say.
The shooting occurred in Hwacheon, some 90km (56 miles) north-east of the South’s capital, Seoul, according to reports from South Korea’s YTN TV.
Yonhap news agency said two shots were aimed at a South Korean military unit.
Continue reading the main story
North Korea: A Secretive State
* Growing apart
* Q&A: Inter-Korean crisis
* The Korean War armistice
* How to pressure North Korea
The Reuters news agency quoted a defence ministry official in Seoul as confirming that the shooting had taken place.
The news agency reports that South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff said that the two states had exchanged fire.
Media reports said North Korea had fired two rounds towards a frontline unit in Hwacheon, in the eastern province of Gangwon. |
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2010 8:53 am Post subject: |
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Can little dictators go quietly into the night?
http://economist.com/node/16994770
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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Little engine that continues to do:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38926777
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