S&P 500 Quarterly Bust Model

[nodoodahs]

This model attempts to predict the chance of a 10% or more decline in the S&P500 index over the next 13 weeks.

Chance of a bust is predicted as 3.39%. The average chance since 1982 is 8.40%.

This score is in the 3rd decile, a reasonably strong indicator of safety in stocks.
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[nodoodahs]

From last Friday's close, odds of a bust at 8.5% (historic average is 8.37%).
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

Odds of a bust have reduced with this reading. 7.5%, the lowest reading of the last 6 weeks and below the historic average.
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He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

Still slightly elevated from the historic average but dropped from last week. 9.6%.
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He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

Bust odds are 9.9%. Another elevated reading and now in the 7th decile.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

The odds of a bust (decline of 10% or more in SPX from today's close) between today and Dec 9th close are estimated at 9%. The average for the experience period is 8.37%. This is three elevated readings in a row and a 6th decile reading.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

This signal is an 8.1% probability, which is in the 6th decile. We have been increasing our risk over the last few weeks, according to this model. The actual odds over the experience period, of a 10% bust in any quarter, is 8.37%.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

Places the odds of a bust (10% or greater decline) in the S&P 500 at 6.9% for anytime in the next quarter. Normal odds are 8.4%, i.e., this happens fairly often over the last 24 years.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

This signal is in the 2nd decile of the range, pretty safe. Not quite as strong a signal as last week's.

Remember, this is a "hard bust" model, attempting to predict odds of a 10% decline in the closing value of the S&P 500 at any time in the next 13 weeks.

As "maalox inducing" as the last two weeks might have been to some, we are down less than 1% from last week and less than 0.5% from two weeks ago.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[nodoodahs]

This model attempts to put odds on the S&P 500 having a decline, from today's close, of 10% or more, some time during the next 13 weeks.

Indicator is in the second decile, this is a very strong signal of safety in stocks.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.