S&P500 Quarterly Return Model

[nodoodahs]

The model prediction is +2.7% which is marginally below the mean return of +2.88% and is a 5th decile score.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[nodoodahs]

+1.3% for the next 13 weeks. 3rd-decile reading.
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I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[nodoodahs]

Predicted -1.6% for the next 13 weeks.
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[nodoodahs]

Predicted return is -1.1% for the next 13 weeks. This is a first-decile reading. This and the bust model are being skewed by the very rapid change in M3 YOY growth, we are at 7.6% when just in July we were at 5.1%.

IMO - ACceleration is less dangerous than DEceleration, but historically both are unstable conditions, proportional to the amount of change ...
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.

[nodoodahs]

A +0.06% reading. This is a second-decile reading and is pretty bearish for the next quarter.

This and the "bust" model are both keying off the very rapid influx of M3 in the last quarter, which creates a lot of instability. Biggest monetary pumping since May '04.
_________________
I haven’t seen a beatin’ like that since somebody stuck a banana in my pants and turned a monkey loose.