SBUX

[rffrydr]

So there is the $3 cup of coffee the old timers laugh at. My neighbor goes out of his way for the Arco Fillup--and my SBUX toting friends have been pushed to that on occasion think the coffee there is satisfactory.

But of course it's a lifestyle question, built on the core of their business, selling drugs. As drugs go this is cheap. Esp relative to cigarettes. If you doubt just check out what SBUX success has done the the Jamba Juice menu (all new Brazilian guanara (sic) caffeine nut) or the proliferation of SBUX drive-thrus. When you got to idle your car in line that can only mean one thing: you're hooked.

Speaking of which, they've made their move on the liquor aisle of your neighborhood RiteAid--going after the creme-liquour market where they're actually the low-cost leader! (next to Prince Charles' private reserve).

Remember when they were going to be a Web Portal??? Big price drop. But now they're getting into the new Movie distribution pipeline with the Bee. Wow.

Which begs the question of whether SBUX can accomodate the non-drinkers such as myself, asian asians and the children for another leg up. The Strawberry/Creme has gone along way for the kids. And the green tea blackberry frap's a hit in Asian San Gabriel Valley. Was just in first SBUX here with Chinese signage. The teas all come first. Apparently, offshore, there's some problem with the "10,000" permutations of orders. No-one likes to feel stuped. Esp. when a "tall" is a small. They also have "kid" sizes. I've seen mothers shopping in Target with all the kids with SBUX cups. I wonder if frapps or chai are considered acceptable drinks for kids these days.

As for myself: I've been sucked in via my friends. I've found accomodations with the Venti Vanilla Creme 3.75 with premium top of whipped creme, and ample additions of half-n-half and nutmeg. SBUX probably doesn't count on these quanties of "extras" but makes for one of the best milk shake values around.


And there employee committment makes for high level of quality control (against Coffee Bean).

Hard to step in front of this. As likely as not they'll be last down. But do you see em trying to sell off today? Sooooo cute!

[rffrydr]

Six red bars.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[rffrydr]

Comps look like crap. Gas? Was in a drivethru in CA central valley this weekend and they were lined up, all V8's purring.

Sold off on a good retail recovery day, 50dma 2X.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

[HenryTo]

Yes - SBUX still remains the stock (along with BBY) to watch for signs of slowing consumer spending:
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Starbucks profit up, April sales disappoint
Wed May 3, 2006 4:42pm ET

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Starbucks Corp. (SBUX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday reported higher quarterly earnings due to more stores and an annual sale of coffee-making equipment, but April sales at established stores were toward the low end of Wall Street targets.

Shares fell to $36.75 in after hours trade from a Nasdaq close of $37.35.

The company said April same-store sales, known as 'comps' in the industry, rose 6 percent. Three Wall Street analysts' forecasts had ranged from increases of 6 percent to 9 percent.

"Short-term investors may view a 6 percent comp as a hiccup," said ThinkEquity Partners analyst Nicole Miller, who has a "buy" rating on Starbucks shares. "We feel comfortable with that number. It's still a number that can easily provide leverage to the bottom line."

Net income in the fiscal second quarter rose to $127 million, or 16 cents per share, from $100 million, or 12 cents per share, a year ago.

Wall Street analysts had expected the fast-growing company to report earnings of between 14 cents and 16 cents per share with an average view of 14 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Starbucks said it still expects monthly same-store sales increases for the remainder of this year to be in line with its long-term forecast of between 3 percent and 7 percent, including some "monthly anomalies." The company, however, has a track record of exceeding that goal.

It also raised its full-year earnings target to a range of 71 cents to 72 cents per share from the prior range of 68 cents to 70 cents. although its fiscal third and fourth-quarter targets were broadly in line with Wall Street.

Starbucks, the world's largest coffee shop chain, has been working to drive sales momentum in its flagship U.S. business by adding lunch items like sandwiches and salads. It is also benefiting from sales of CDs.

Starbucks shares closed at $37.35 Wednesday on Nasdaq. The stock trades at 44 times analysts' average 2007 earnings estimate, compared with an average multiple of 18.5 for other companies in the Dow Jones U.S. restaurants and bars index

[nodoodahs]

I didn't like the valuation in December. Sorry, folks!
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[rffrydr]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBUX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p33091467664

God bless, Henry.

[HenryTo]

Both SBUX and BBY have been on a tear since early October of last year - and like I said before, are definitely the ones to watch in the consumer discretionary sector (XLY). Once these two stocks start turning down (SBUX down four days in a row now), then it is over for the consumer which in turn most probably means that the stock market has topped out (at least for this year).

The VIX closed up 6% today, while the NYSE ARMS Index hit a one-day reading of 1.38. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator turned negative with a reading of -66.75. Unfortunately, this is not what bottoms are made of - even the temporary ones (although the NASDAQ Composite is definitely pretty oversold).

[rffrydr]

Comps today should have been much better with the intro of "soft-core" drinks for us non-addicts. And they look good. The Tazo/Blackberry is shooting for the under-represented (wannabe represented) asian market.

[rffrydr]

Goin' Hollywood:

http://www.latimes.com/business/custom/cotown/la-fi-starbucks2jun02,1,6746005.story?coll=la-headlines-business-enter

"The Biz" is a dangerous business.

[HenryTo]

MCD had great management and a great visionary but above all, it was the right business to be in at the right place and at the right time.

SBUX was also at the right place at the right time - and I believe the trend hasn't totally played itself out yet. Just like the collapse of the Nifty Fifty in 1973 to 1974 when MCD was a buy, SBUX is still a buy at the bottom of the next bear market (when P/E has shrunk to 10 or below).

That being said, I am now typing this from the nearby SBUX and it is starting to turn into a Mikey Dee's atmosphere. It wasn't like this eight years ago - heck not even a couple of years ago. I can't focus or concentrate here as much as I have been previously able to. Maybe they should raise coffee prices by 50% across the board....

[nodoodahs]

Just got short on SBUX. Technically looks much nearer resistance than support. I will probably use the north side of $37 as a stop ...
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[rffrydr]

Me too: sold the jan 35's ((4+) this morn. Still have a hard time fighting this nation's premiere drug company. It'll be interesting as they try to become an entainment company. Y'can't beat the margins "selling shadows on a wall." But the Media thing is often topmaking.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/14655742.htm

"This is continuing our commitment to providing customers with compelling family entertainment titles," Starbucks Entertainment President Ken Lombard told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-fi-starbucks1may01,1,2889736.story?coll=la-headlines-entnews&track=crosspromo

[nodoodahs]

Stopped out above 50 DMA. May revisit later.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

[rffrydr]

Yeah, tough reversal. Unless this was really the end, I think the .25 is BEARISH. It will take us back to the uncertainty on the cycle. Today was an end-of-quarter effect. Another 75K on the jobs next week and things'll get more interesting.

Right now, I'll let the calls take me short SBUX.

[rffrydr]

Ye, of little faith.
_________________
Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!