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SHORT SHORT-TERM SENTIMENTS QI 2012 Replies |
rffrydr
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 Posted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 8:31 am Post subject: |
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...Oops, see that CAF had its periodic currency adjustment dividend which made the gap yesterday.
Obamacare: an unhealthy focus
| Quote: | If Congress required every American to own a garden gnome, you would not expect the kitsch industry to rally if the Supreme Court expressed hostility to that law. But on Thursday, following arguments in which judges hit defenders of the Affordable Care Act with pointed questions, the biggest US health insurers got a boost: UnitedHealth, Aetna, Cigna, and Humana were all up between 3 per cent and 6 per cent.
That is because from the point of the insurers, the law is double-edged. The requirement that everyone buys insurance (the so-called individual mandate) is accompanied by consumer-protection rules, most notably that insurers neither reject customers, nor charge them differently, depending on their health – only according to age, family size, location and tobacco use. The market was celebrating the judges’ apparent disinclination to toss the individual mandate but not the rules. That would have killed the potential for new customers while retaining a threat to margins.
But take a step back. According to the Census Bureau, 56 per cent of non-elderly Americans – those not covered by Medicare – have employer-provided insurance. They are already protected by rules like the ones the Act would apply to everyone. Another 19 per cent have Medicaid (government insurance for the poor) or other government insurance. It is only the remaining quarter of the population, individual buyers of insurance and the uninsured, who are the primary targets of the law. And many of those would be covered by the law’s expansion of Medicaid, not by private plans. The reality is that insurance profits come mostly from employer-provided insurance (and managing government plans), and this will continue regardless.
Insurance investors must be careful not to focus too much on the individual mandate. |
--FT
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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....That looked climatic. Certainly "filled the gap" CAF-wise. Weekend PMI certainly could rip this thing back up. Cyclicals (ex-crude) have been selling down since early Feb. Much smoother setup into summer than last year.
This bit on the Mega (saw them lining up into the desert out at State Line...an american haj!
| Quote: | More Lottery Trivia
By Paul Price | Mar 29, 2012 | 2:44 PM EDT
Of the 43 states with legal lotteries Massachusetts had the highest annual
per capita spending at $860.70 while North Dakota showed the least at just
$46.72 per adult per year.
Massachusetts pays out 71.9% of gross sales in 'winnings' while North
Dakota was much stingier at just 51.8% of revenues.
Those correlations make sense as even lottery players can smell a really
bad deal when it's served up to them. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:27 am Post subject: |
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CAF on 10% gap down from yesterday's post of same.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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Sweet... and sour as the china syndrome offgasses:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CAF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08194707398
The banks that print profits are seeing their shares sold out the back door. Hard to believe an investing populace brainwashed with the "China Century" would turn in masse however(unlike our own true believers) but we've seen it in india. I'm not going to worry until the aussie breaks parity but things could take a strange twist here: a whiff of commodity deflation the world is begging for. To Wit: natgas.
Just saw the solar towers being put up outside Vegas, right off the 15, for all to see. Don't be afraid to dream.
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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Gold went down $50....easily. Bonds down 2pts...easily.
And good ol' banks standing tuff--truely the last cyclical.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2012 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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Market had a false start on obviously good jobs numbers (DEC and JAN revised up 60K)--no QE3 teet to hang on?
Housing and, yes, banks never flinched however showing that they've become a deep cyclical. Watch out for what higher rates do to the bond infested indices, and the transition is likely to be rough, even without immediate QEII controlled spikes--but ultimately good news will prove good market news as the financials (finally) get their comeuppance.
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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When the "haircut" is 75% it's worth triggering a retroactive CAC and try to poison the chalice of eurodebt for a decade to come (Ireland and BKIR notwithstanding)--and maybe, just maybe collect on the CDS.
Is it ironic that the major bank holdouts are both german? That should then get "smoothed over." Sadly, if it doesn't, CDS may be with us for longer than we will care to remember.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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Inflation scare? It comes in many...many varieties. Here's one we didn't expect:
http://www.digitimes.com/pda/a20120301PD203.html
Kinda like the Oils in '08....I wonder if Apple will buy up ALL the good flash???
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:31 am Post subject: |
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There's a bull in our stars:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-stock-market-rally-market/2/15/2012/id/39331
| Quote: | I had a long conversation last year with someone I had not spoken to since college days; just one of those things, really. He is an anesthesiologist, which can really put you to sleep, but I did not have to press him on what it was he did for a living, exactly. I never am afforded that luxury and, curiously enough, never really have been for 35 years.
After describing my life as an economist and market analyst, he asked me the bomb of a question: Are you right? I laughed and gave him the one answer he never expected: My clients do not care so much whether I am right or wrong, something no one will know until after the fact; however, they do care deeply whether I am intellectually honest and rigorous. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 8:27 am Post subject: |
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60 cents spike since my last fill-up.... Not looking for '08, but still...
Geithner said SPR would be part of the equation. How did we time this to the very moment our standing army in Mideast isn't standing anymore?! At least GM is lucking out on its PU transition 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:19 am Post subject: |
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Tues. was our no rally on good news and 3-day weekends can be turns. Throw in a suitably delayed Barron's cover...and we may be waiting for french elelctions.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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That's the fourth time, BMCount, this year Europe tried to stab us in the back with Greece. Seems now to have become a stimulant. Market pride swells with every rejection swamping machine shorts. Not that we're immune, they can still drop a rock on our heads and the French elections are just ahead; but the SocGen chart posted earlier today shows how much dollar disconnect has already been achieved; and they did their worst to GM last Q. There's a small mountain of sideline money that still feels it has the "luxury" of the early morning backstab to get long. Even the Republicans are getting things done. Could Apple be the upside canary?
Almost e15B french/spanish bonds out in Moody's face today so, looks like the "roll yield" is kciking in....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-15/france-joins-spain-to-defy-moody-s-with-14-3-billion-euro-debt-sale-plan.html
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:08 am Post subject: |
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Europe once again snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory!
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