DEADShort term sentimentsDEAD

vin · Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:35 pm Post subject: DEADShort term sentimentsDEAD

New here – mostly swing trading. I’ve been searching for a serious site and believe I have found it here. Mr. To’s commentaries are excellent. Let’s cut to it - I for one am spooked short term (1-3 weeks). Here are my reasons:
First, the current rally just doesn’t seem to have teeth. The move up on June 29 seemed exaggerated. It was just a big ‘Hurrah, the Fed did what we expected.’ Many read a future pause into Bernanke’s statement but who knows? It’s almost as if the market ‘willed’ a rally.
Second, after this delayed follow through day the major indexes responded with a pullback on increased volume (modest in percentage loss).
Third, two days prior (June 27th) all three indices had what I call a ‘heave day.’ They climbed over the previous day’s high only to close lower than the previous day’s low – all on increased volume.
Fourth, there was no doubt some end of the quarter window dressing and short covering.
What has happened since? Some call it consolidation; I call it distribution and selling into bounces. The accumulation volume has been anemic. Although the holiday week clouds things the leading events remain.
Lastly, the most important thing is the gut. Something makes me feel very uneasy (see below). Maybe it was the synthesis of what I mentioned above; maybe I am worried about locking in gains on this recent move up. Nevertheless, I liquidated everything except LEN as I don’t think homebuilders can get beat up much more (gee, wonder where I got that idea?).
North Korea lobbing missiles into the sea doesn’t help. I think there will be one more shakeout before we test old highs again. I don’t know if we’ll sink to (or below) the mid-June lows, but it could be painful. Predictions are pretty much worthless until events transpire. I’m only building an arguable case. The market doesn’t care or need reasons to steamroll every naysayer out there. Let the tape decide.

Side note: I was reading my Bible before the market opened and came across these verses:

“With her enticing speech she caused him to yield, with her flattering lips she seduced him. Immediately he went after her, as an ox goes to the slaughter, or as a fool to the correction of the stocks…” Proverbs 7:21-22

I don’t claim to have divine intervention on my side, and starting my day with this verse might have been what spooked me. Take it for what it’s worth, but the wording in this verse is uncanny in its application to bulls running up a blind (r)alley. The Bible remains the best book on investing ever written (not to mention the invaluable spiritual content). If you don’t have one, get one.

diesel · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject:

What a day! Twisted Evil

A few more like that and my hair will start falling out....
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“I was once Snow White, but I drifted” – Mae West

mtvk · Veteran Poster Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 241

lewie2004,

My 2c:

When doom and gloom is all you hear, be bullish.

Unless market is going to crash, we are in for big snap back rally
at least.

Making wealth is slow steady process. For many seeing loss is
gut wrecking. Following a principle of being long in an asset class
only when its index is above 10 month sma will avoid that
but still end up way ahead.

lewie2004 · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:04 pm Post subject:

I am on my hands because i don't know within 300 points were we might open tomorrow. I'll get back in when we get back over 11k dow. If things are more stable. I want to be long but when things are this unstable i dont want to have to have a 1000 point rally to get even.

gregf · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject:

The trade was the same trade as in 1987: buy t-bills; buy more t-bills.

Maria giggling with Dow -570 (she's (slap)happy). "The bailout will be passed."
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1872

If you don't already have a plan in place and a bet on the table, sit on your hands.

If you have a plan, and you know it works long-term, keep playing it. If you aren't confident in your plan, consider carefully what you need to do in order to sleep at night and stay in the game for the long term, then do what's necessary.

If for whatever reason, it's your life savings, you're swinging X times leverage, etc., you CAN'T sit on your hands and you DON'T have a plan, God help you.
_________________
He was wearing my Harvard tie. Can you believe it? My Harvard tie. Like oh, sure, HE went to Harvard.

lewie2004 · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 12:33 pm Post subject:

buy, sale, hold, short, or to dangerous with big moves either way??? Anyone with a great deal of experience be the soothing voice of reason!!!!!

chestnutstime · Senior Poster Joined: 24 Oct 2007 Posts: 82

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject:

We hit Credit Suisse absolute value today--and they're the great bear.

46 VIX
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

gregf · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 10:05 am Post subject:

lewie2004 · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:58 am Post subject:

thought this was interesting...If we do not get a vote until wednesday how much could this play on the markets..
9/29/2008 11:34 AM EDT
A CNBC anchor complained this morning that a deal was reached 24 hours ago on the "bailout" legislation, but it had not yet been passed. I wonder how many of those following the markets, including foreigners, do not understand the legislative process. It is not just a matter of the Congressional leaders cutting a deal with the President. The legislation is subject to debate in both the House and Senate before a vote.

Actually, Congress is moving at warp speed! Last week I stated that it was unrealistic to expect any legislation to be passed before the weekend. I predicted that C-Span would be competing with football. It actually took a day longer.

The House is debating the bill under a strict "rule," as it is called. A floor manager for each party parcels out time in chunks of two minutes or so. The legislator gets to make a brief statement for the camera and then "extends and revises" remarks for the record.

At the current pace, the House should be ready for a vote by about 12:30 EDT. Some are arguing that the Senate should also act today. There is a recess for Rosh Hashana. Unless the Senate can act before sundown, the vote there will occur on Wednesday.

Position: nm

lewie2004 · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:46 am Post subject:

gregf,

Have you thrown anything yet??? Anyone considering going 125 -150 % long.

gregf · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:38 am Post subject:

VIX is spiking again - approaching 40

gregf · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:34 am Post subject:

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:17 am Post subject:

So...45days 'til first price?!
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!