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rffrydr
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 Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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How much of this "bank" of cash sitting on corp. balance sheets is going to trade credit?...banks by other means (GE excepted).
This is one special moments where fear and risk coalesce...and turn the viciousness back onto iteself. 
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:53 am Post subject: |
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Lowes bought back $2.4B on exceptional cash-flow last quarter....biggest buyer of stocks continue to be corporations themselves. And they're not trying to float the bubble anymore. Watch those adjusted 2012 earnings estimates continue to get "adjusted." 
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2011 7:41 am Post subject: |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Oct 31, 2011 7:05 am Post subject: |
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From Lipper:
ExETFs—For the week ended 10/26/2011 all Equity funds report net outflows totaling
$.742 billion, with Domestic Equity funds reporting net outflows of $0.924 billion and Non-
Domestic Equity funds reporting net inflows of $0.182 billion... ExETFs—Emerging Markets Equity
funds report net inflows of $0.318 billion... Net inflows are reported for All Taxable Bond funds ($
5.633 billion), bringing the rate of inflows of the $2.938 trillion sector to $3.759 billion/week...
International & Global Debt funds posted net inflows of $0.028 billion... Net outflows of
$0.421billion were reported for Corp-Investment Grade funds while Flexible Funds reported net
inflows of $1.070 billion… Money Market funds report net outflows of $1.057 billio n… ExETFs—
Municipal Bond funds report net inflows of $0.276 billion.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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We've just taken some $100B-$250B in bank recap, and that much again in Pensions, off DM markets--assuming...
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:40 am Post subject: |
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| Great point--not to mention corporate cash levels are at all-time highs and still growing. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 5:53 am Post subject: |
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$14B waiting at Blackstone, $9B at KKR. These guys never got invested coming out of the hole. I'd be surprised if they sit this one out--even if they just stick to CMRE.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:34 am Post subject: |
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1000pts and now the Saudis are getting wet:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44900277
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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| I have to admit that it's not the best way to measure this anymore; but there aren't any reliable alternatives. It's still a good way, given the majority of money market funds are still held by potential fixed income and equity investors. |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Thu Sep 15, 2011 6:46 am Post subject: |
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RU sure money-market holdings and checking accounts at evil banks are the best way to measure this anymore? After all money market funds buy eurobank ABS. I use the t-bill measured out to four decimal places at "0." Indeed minus signs are popping up here and there.
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 9:42 am Post subject: |
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What's best thing about this selldown? Retail is not around and are now numb with Dow-fatigue. Meanwhile mortgage rates have stabbed down to 4%, crude safely to low 80's after looking like it was going to bounce right back (that should be the airline's last panic buy), and politicians out of the picture until 2012.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44202233
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:57 am Post subject: |
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Trimtabs talking $19b withdrawn on this selldown--but article highlights small business clients buying. The "Glitch" is having its effect:
| Quote: | “I simply have no confidence at all that the markets are fair or that I should be involved in them at all,” said Lisa Lai, a 63-year-old retiree in the San Francisco Bay area who sold all her equity mutual funds in the fall of 2008 and bought United States Treasuries.
“I don’t go to Vegas and gamble with the big-time gamblers there,” she said.
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| Quote: | Last Friday as the market tumbled, she bought shares of Aflac, Johnson & Johnson, and Berkshire Hathaway.
“I texted a friend of mine on Friday and said, the candy store is open and there’s so many choices,“ Ms. Butler said. “The only question was could I get to a computer fast enough?”
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/12/business/small-investors-recalibrate-after-market-gyrations.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 6:02 pm Post subject: |
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| rffrydr wrote: | It's because the market is "pricing in" another "Lehman moment." '08 is the sword hanging over our head. Those are scary charts. I was scared of XOM and CAT at their 200dma let alone a bear market.
Either you believe financial contagion breaks against the bulwark of the world tax-payer (as do I) or you believe government is just an extension of the same. Plenty of overlap, not an easy decision. And we have a catalyst.
Things should line up a little better come July  |
Oh how they did...and didn't. This remains the only question before us.
Meanwhile all that corp. cash is not going to waste:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/fluor-softbank-among-companies-buying-stock.html
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diesel
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| Posted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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This graph shows the JGB term spread and Japan’s recessions (measured as the yield on nine-year debt minus the yield on two-year debt). While it’s apparent that curve inversion was a fairly reliable indicator of trouble in the past, it also shows quite clearly that its effectiveness ended with the collapse of Japan’s asset bubble in the late 1980s-early 1990s and subsequent balance sheet recession.
Note that the next three recessions since (four if we count the current one) have all been preceded by a positive term spread, and the term spread hasn’t been inverted since 1991!
| dash wrote: | | Quote: | | It's because the market is "pricing in" another "Lehman moment." |
Is it though? Maybe the stockmarket is but that's not really new. As fund flows indicate most people have been very pessimistic about stocks since the last bear market. Other market indicators aren't pricing in another banking crisis, so my feeling is that it's the stockmarket valuation which is the outlier here.
To elaborate, if the market were pricing in a Lehman type event then swap spreads (a proxy for bank risk) would have blown out and the yield curve would be much flatter than it is. Well swap spreads have been stable, despite the CDS market pricing in a high probability of a Greek default, and the curve is very steep.
This is a great tool:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.html
Play around with the red verticle line in the right chart. Take it back to the top of the market in 2007. Notice how flat the curve was at that time. Back then it was pricing in a marked slowdown in the economy. The current steepness suggests another recession is not on the cards.
I think it only makes sense to bet against the crowd when both valuations and sentiment are lined up the same way. In the late 90s valuations were sky high and sentiment (retail buying of equity mutual funds) was extremely positive. Right now valuations (especially relative to bonds) are reasonably cheap and sentiment is negative.
BTW was today a 90% up day? |
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