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Stagflation? Replies |
diesel
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Joined: 05 Oct 2006
Posts: 412
Location: Australia & New Zealand
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 Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | I think you mean Yen and not Euro. I swapped out of Euro for the Yen a couple of weeks ago. That's the system, although I was (am still) very tempted to second-guess that move.
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Hi Bill,
I havent checked your blog lately so are a bit behind on your current positions. If the anti-dollar orgy plays out in the hard assets and foreign currencys as your system indicates I dont think it would matter to a large extent whether you are in the yen or euro. Last I heard Jim Rogers preferred the Yen to the Euro... You have good company.
As for me I will sit on the sidelines for now with my US and Jap Stocks and look for a good re-entry for a Euro short. Provisional 4Q GDP for the Eurozone was stronger than expected. |
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HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7688
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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| I think Diesel was talking about his short position in the Euro? |
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nodoodahs
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Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 1872
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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| diesel wrote: | | I stopped out of my Euro position this morning as well. I think Bill may be onto something with his long euro, oil, gold position. One last blowoff? Gold 1100? |
I think you mean Yen and not Euro. I swapped out of Euro for the Yen a couple of weeks ago. That's the system, although I was (am still) very tempted to second-guess that move.
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HenryTo
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Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7688
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: |
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From the look of the statistics, China is stockpiling inventories in anticipation of plant/factory closings around Beijing leading up to the Olympics - not unsimilar to the pre-Y2K inventory stockup.
Not sure how long this will run but my guess is that prices will plunge right after or perhaps or even before the Olympics. |
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diesel
Moderator
Joined: 05 Oct 2006
Posts: 412
Location: Australia & New Zealand
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 2:29 pm Post subject: |
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| I stopped out of my Euro position this morning as well. I think Bill may be onto something with his long euro, oil, gold position. One last blowoff? Gold 1100? |
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nodoodahs
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Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 1872
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:06 am Post subject: |
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This is the trade that Rotation has me in at the moment, based on the trends of the last 140 or so trading days. Stagflation - gold, silver, oil, Yen, soft commodities, half of the portfolio.
I don't like the trade, but I'll like it more if it makes money.
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rffrydr
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Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 7645
Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:31 am Post subject: |
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75bp cut Jan 22 brought out the stagflation bug in gold--now blossoming across markets on the three-day holiday. Japan's surprise GDP, China coming in 7.1, high on expections has led some to throw in the towel.
Ultimately stocks are a hard asset--at least that was the role last time.
Stopped out of euro: will have to look for another entry.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/135ea96e-dae5-11dc-9fdd-0000779fd2ac.html
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Aug 2004
Posts: 7688
Location: Houston, Texas & Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2007 8:06 pm Post subject: |
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Here is the link:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo111607
| Quote: | Headline consumer spending came in up 5.2% year over year, which suggest a very respectable growing economy. But retail sales were only up 0.2% in October, which is below inflation. In other words, retail sales fell in October in real terms. But digging deeper into the numbers, we find a problem. Remember food and energy. As Greg Weldon points out, it is unlikely that US consumers bought 16% more gasoline than they did last year. The increase in spending for gasoline was all related to price. Ditto for food.
John Williams says the same analysts who want to use core inflation should also use core retail sales. And if you take out food and energy from retail sales, you find consumer spending to be flat in October. There were multiple categories like home furniture, music, electronic games, etc that were in outright declines. Most interestingly, online sales actually dropped last month. Annual sales growth dropped to its lowest number in years. |
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rffrydr
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Location: Sunny California
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| Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2007 7:11 pm Post subject: |
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Mauldin on the topic again this week.
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dknoester
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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