Stagflation?

rffrydr · Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 7:33 am Post subject: Stagflation?

If this IS the 70's again, then maybe it's time to trot out this old bit of economics. Just a cursory view: dollar, as usual sniffed out first, high wages, low job growth, high commodity inputs, speculator mentality (a silver ETF without the silver to stock it!) Condos' in Miami, home sales going....going....

Was stagflation ever really here? How long can it stay?
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2006 10:44 am Post subject:

Stagflation: they say it can't happen again.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_baum&sid=aqETuYTZzGOo

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:06 am Post subject:

IEA pared its 2006 global oil demand growth by 10,000 bpd to 1.24 mbpd,
saying that high energy prices are starting to impact consumption, with the drop in US demand beingthe most apparent. Projected U.S. demand growth is 0.9% for this year, below what should be expected
given economic growth of up to 4 percent.

Raised Chinese demand on, yes, price INCREASES.

They used to ask us to imagine if every Chinese used deoderant--just one day a week! Watch that apparel price number: imagine if everything China does for us was "adjusted" up, just 5%.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:32 am Post subject:

From the recent (June 12) Hussman commentary:

"Remember that the Fed does nothing except determine whether government liabilities will be held by the public in the form of bonds or in the form of cash (currency and bank reserves). The actual quantity of those government liabilities is not under the Fed's control, but is controlled by Congress through its fiscal policies. If fiscal policy makers insist on creating a flood of government liabilities (as they currently are), the Fed's decisions will have extremely little importance or impact in avoiding the resulting inflation. The Fed's policies are important when there is a panic for liquidity, such as bank runs and financial crises, but unless bank liquidity is actually constrained (and it doesn't appear to be presently), the Fed's moves are largely irrelevant."

Of course there's the bully pulpit.

Goodfella · Veteran Poster Joined: 14 Oct 2005 Posts: 301

someone sweating on the inflation numbers

HenryTo · Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 2:53 pm Post subject:

Even though wages have skyrocketed in the coastal areas of China and in the tech hubs in India, there are no signs that these countries have stopped exporting deflation. In fact - with the recent swoon in the emerging markets - my guess is that all this talk about inflation will stop very soon.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 2:45 pm Post subject:

Real PCE over the last four months averaged at 0.01. --VS .4 CPI?

rffrydr · Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2006 7:43 am Post subject:

Fed Poole says inflation may stay up despite a softening economy.

rffrydr · Posted: Mon May 22, 2006 7:34 am Post subject:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aVcdWJSac2Nk&refer=news_index

Henry, any ideas about the global output gap? This must be a very lumpy number (ECRB) considering geography/technology/culture to wit: steel.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday!

rffrydr · Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 8:05 am Post subject:

It's three. All down from what we thought yesterday--and my broker, based on the ISM etc. was looking for above 250,000 today.

Goodfella · Veteran Poster Joined: 14 Oct 2005 Posts: 301

anyway as all the pundits say - one job number doesnt make a trend

Goodfella · Veteran Poster Joined: 14 Oct 2005 Posts: 301

jobs growth slowed, but pay is up. jobs that cant be outsourced are demanding higher pay to make ends meet?

maybe wishful thinking