Stagflation?

rffrydr · Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 7:33 am Post subject: Stagflation?

If this IS the 70's again, then maybe it's time to trot out this old bit of economics. Just a cursory view: dollar, as usual sniffed out first, high wages, low job growth, high commodity inputs, speculator mentality (a silver ETF without the silver to stock it!) Condos' in Miami, home sales going....going....

Was stagflation ever really here? How long can it stay?
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:19 am Post subject:

Roubini has now coined: "Stagdeflation."
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Odysseus · Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 12:10 am Post subject:

Appologies to Ben Franklin...

You better buy now, not wait for tomorrow

When things will cost more, you'll find to your sorrow

In all of my travels this fact I've descerned

A penny spent, is a penny earned.

Maybe the unwashed were not so crazy after all? They bought admittably depreciating assets with other peoples money, never expecting to ever pay it back?

Truth wills........
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:30 pm Post subject:

Crude prices advanced from $91.02 at the Sep 16th close, to $109.37 on Sep 22nd. During that period, open interest fell 125,855 contracts, which indicates that the rally was built on short-covering rather than genuine buying. It provides an indication that index funds may have been liquidating further during the past week of price strength.
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diesel · Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:10 pm Post subject:

What can you say "Its human nature to average down". Razz

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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:05 pm Post subject:

Sometimes, sometimes not: but this is what really puts a cherry on it:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122178285175454631.html

nodoodahs · Moderator Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 1872

Inflation IS a monetary phenomenon.

Prices are a separate matter.
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject:

US monetary-base at historical low range last three years for those bugs out there who think inflation is once and always a monetary phenomenon.
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject:

We're back to selling paper--just a day after Fed hold. Demand destruction is being deconstructed. Can the stocks be far behind?
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rffrydr · Posted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 8:22 am Post subject:

The "Stagflation Index" in extremis. Shall we hope for a turn?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2008/0916.html
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rffrydr · Posted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 8:58 pm Post subject:

Stagflation like we've never seen before:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-99cents9-2008sep09,0,5998151.story
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject:

"You Sell It Or Smell It" Meatpacking: where there is stock but no inventory; where no shortage one is created--by no-one. The invisible hand:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Economics/On_Economy/vQbhbp81gXEA.mp3
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rffrydr · Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:14 am Post subject:

No hoarding, no riots but inflation is now "popping up" in the darndest places:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B73657EB6%2D9657%2D4312%2D873A%2D8EE5B488BF6F%7D&siteid=rss

Escalator, "Inflation is Back" makes the cover of The Economist.
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 9:58 pm Post subject:

Crude prices are INFLATIONARY...this by definition. Crude prices are DEFLATIONARY...this as planes fall out of the sky. Problem is it's one or the other or both at different levels (not necessarily prices). It's also the preliminary and necessary ingredient to Stagflation.

Further proof should appear as 4th of July confirm the remarkable Memorial Day massacre. But the FED, like most of us, is left hanging on its own $100 "spike."

Having not seen a COLA in a quarter-century we have nothing to worry about economists tell us. The knot with labor has not yet been tied.

Of course if you're a CA prison guard....or CHP...or fireman...or, you didn't need a COLA--everthing came up front and was amortized into a better tomorrow; from the best of now. But that misses the point, they would say.... Perhaps this point is too small a view.

Margin for error or promise of things to come?

http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbyyear.asp
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rffrydr · Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:01 pm Post subject:

The insideous tide strikes even the strongest and most determined:

http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11585215
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rffrydr · Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:15 am Post subject:

Yes, I suspect there is a large immigrant bias to these lines: people familiar with a culture of rising prices and our consumate trend-following rice-hoarders who disproportionately use the PostOffice.

They can buy all the "forever" stamps they want next month at one-cent more--one forty-first percent increase. Yet they are looking through to the next rise; and the next rise after that. And the rise is seen as arbtrary--that's inflation.

I think I've used maybe four stamps in the last six months. And a trip to central the other day, and the line and all, with my father felt like a journey into the past.

The flipside is that anybody who works behind a computer is thinking they are vulnerable to job emmigration. It's not locked into wages as in many developing area where good old fashioned inflation has taken hold. That is supposed to make all the difference. Yet wages are rising at a healthy 3+percent clip. And jobs are getting more tricky to transfer. Work is in fact being repatriated even in the manufacturing sector.

Let's hope that, like the seventies, sugar and coffee shows the way before game shows return to the "lifetime supply" prizes.
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