Storm may affect US Gulf oil, gas operations

[HenryTo]

From the Reuters UK website: Note that we most probably won't hear any more "credible" additional assessment on the condition of the oil rigs until Monday morning at the earliest - as all employees have now been evacuated.
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Storm may affect US Gulf oil, gas operations
Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:44 AM BST

By Erwin Seba

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico may not begin to return to normal until Monday, producers and infrastructure operators said on Saturday as Hurricane Dennis churned through the region.

A ConocoPhillips spokeswoman said the energy giant planned to start returning workers to offshore platforms in the Gulf on Monday morning after Dennis makes landfall, which is expected on Sunday night.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port LLC, or LOOP, the only deepwater U.S. oil port, expects to resume offloading foreign crude from tankers on Monday. Offloading was halted at noon CDT (1700 GMT) on Saturday due to expected rough seas.

Oil and natural gas production shut by the passage of Dennis through the eastern Gulf of Mexico may not be fully restored through the early part of next week due to the time it takes to inspect, reboard and restart platforms and rigs after a storm.

Also affecting operations will be the availability of necessary transportation.

"It will depend on the availability of helicopters on Monday," said Jenna Wright, spokeswoman for Total S.A..

The Gulf, which is home to 25 percent of U.S. oil and gas, produces 1.5 million barrels of crude per day, and about 10 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.

On Friday, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said 15 percent of daily crude output and 10 percent of daily natural gas production had been shut by Dennis.

Energy companies were reporting greater amounts of shut production on Saturday.

Other oil and natural gas producers declined to forecast when workers might return to the Gulf.

The LOOP, which takes 900,000 barrels per day in foreign crude from tankers, is supplying refiners with oil it has stored on shore. The port's offloading station is about 20 miles (32 km) south of the Louisiana coast.

The U.S. Coast Guard ordered ports closed from eastern Louisiana, including the port of New Orleans, to Carrabelle, Florida, as a safety measure.

ConocoPhillips had evacuated all of its Gulf workers, said spokeswoman Camilla Aucott. She did not have updated figures for the number of workers removed from the Gulf or production shut in by the company as of Saturday.

Shell Oil Co. shut in 460,000 bpd in oil production and 1.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in natural gas output as of Saturday, the company said in a statement.

Transco pipeline operator Williams Companies Inc. said producers had shut in a total of 800 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of natural gas that normally would be shipped in the system, which has a capacity of 8.1 bcfd.

Leading energy company Exxon Mobil Corp. said it had shut Mobile Bay, Alabama, operations as well as platforms and drilling rigs in the eastern and central Gulf.

Exxon had shut a total 40,000 bpd in liquids production, most of which is oil, and 780 mmcfd in natural gas output, said spokeswoman Susan Reeves.

Apache Corp. has evacuated 495 workers from the eastern and central Gulf and shut in between two-thirds and 75 percent of daily production of 65,000 barrels of oil and 650 million cubic feet of natural gas.

Total said on Saturday it had shut in 65,000 barrels of oil equivalent in Gulf production. On Saturday, Wright said, the company would not be able to assess the impact to operations until Monday.

BP said it had shut in a significant amount of production but declined to provide detailed figures. The company has evacuated workers from the eastern and central Gulf.

[HenryTo]

The damage in the Gulf Coast is coming into light. Note that Thunder Horse is "designed to process about 250,000 barrels of crude oil a day, 200 million cubic feet of natural gas and accommodate a crew of 229."

Anything that produces over 100k barrels a day is a big deal, folks.
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Big BP oil rig listing badly in U.S. Gulf
By Jim Jelter, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:08 PM ET July 11, 2005

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BP Plc. said late Monday that Thunder Horse, one if its big Gulf of Mexico deepwater oil rigs, was listing badly after Hurricane Dennis swept through area this past weekend.

The semi-submersible rig, an essential component in the development of the Thunder Horse oil and gas field on Mississippi Canyon Block 778, about 150 miles southeast of New Orleans, was heeled over at an angle of 20 to 30 degrees, the company said.

While too early to say what caused the rig to lean, righting and repairing it could pose a costly delay to BP's plans to bring the field on line later this year.

BP (BP: news, chart, profile) is operator on the Thunder Horse field, holding a 75% stake in the project, with partner Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM: news, chart, profile) holding the remaining 25%.

The giant rig was evacuated Friday as a precaution ahead of the storm, which slammed ashore Sunday along the Florida-Alabama border.

The Thunder Horse platform is among the world's biggest deepwater production platforms, designed to process about 250,000 barrels of crude oil a day, 200 million cubic feet of natural gas and accommodate a crew of 229.

Semi-submersible platforms float atop huge pontoons and are kept in place by anchors run out from each of the rig's corners to the seabed, which in this case is 6,050 feet below the surface.


Jim Jelter is Industrials Editor for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

[Agric]

Less apparent destruction by Dennis but my guess is more disruption to oil and gas supply than is immediately obvious on Monday.

I expect Nymex August oil to bounce between $60 and $65 the rest of this week. Odds are US trade deficit will be worse than expected, maybe $60bn, $ and stocks may encounter reality, wouldn't be surprised to see DJIA touch 10,000 if early 2nd qtr earnings reports are below expectations.

[Gizmo]

Reinitiated short on the Spx. Scary given recent momentum, but I be in good company as the Commercials continue building shorts there.

Commercial traders usually early but rarely wrong.
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Gizmo

[HenryTo]

Gizmo,

Thanks for the charts - I haven't looked at the Bradley chart in a while. If I remember correctly, the Bradley turns were actually right on the money on three or four turning points last year. Given my recent work and gut feeling, my preferred scenario is also calling for a ST top within the next few days - if it hadn't already happened last Friday.

Best,

Henry

[Gizmo]

Market complacency regarding high energy costs, rising interest rates, and terrorist acts is astounding.

Bradley turn 07/13.

http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm

Top?

http://www.amanita.at/e/e-new-nopopup.htm
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Gizmo