TASR - Stock pick for last Wed

[HenryTo]

Now up $1.46 (5.5%) to $27.80 in pre-market trading.

Link: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040818/taser_international_order_1.html

[HenryTo]

Very positive on Taser as a product and describes the myths and errors in recent reports over the dangers of using Taser on suspects:
------------------------------------------------------------------

Original link: http://www.poran.org/poran3.html

PEACE OFFICERS RESEARCH ASSOCIATION OF NEVADA
P.O. BOX 40415
Reno, Nevada 89504-0415

March 15, 2005 Newsletter

In this month’s article, I will discuss various issues surrounding the Taser non-lethal use of force option. Many agencies in Nevada, including my own, have deployed the Taser for patrol and detention settings. As a use of force continuum tool, the Taser is effective and reduces injuries to officers and suspects. Deaths following application of the Taser have been sensationalized by the media and overtly link the Taser as the cause of death. Hopefully, continued education regarding the device will stave off efforts to ban the highly effective tool for law enforcement. Without sounding like a commercial for Taser, I will provide information to the PORAN membership regarding the issues.

What is the Taser?

The Taser is a device that shoots 2 small “fish hook” probes up to 21 feet. The probes are connected to the Taser by insulated wire attached to a detachable cartridge. The probes exit the cartridge in a vertical “V” shape at an 8 degree angle. Depending on the distance from the suspect when fired, the probes develop a contact spread of approx. 3” to 3’ and more. An electrical signal (50,000 volts, 26 watts) is transmitted through the wires to where the probes make contact with the body or clothing. The result, when deployed properly, is an immediate loss of the suspect’s neuromuscular control and the ability to perform coordinated action for the duration of the 5 second impulse. The results can vary and are affected by the spread of the probes on the suspect. A 3 foot spread of the probes is much more effective as an incapacitater then a 3 inch spread (close contact). The Taser can also be used without the cartridge as a drive stun (direct contact) on the suspect. This method is less effective then a full spread of the probes. Taser manufactures 2 models, the M-26 and the X-26. More information is available at http://www.etaser.com/.

Taser as a Use of Force

The difference between this tool and other force options, such as control holds and impact weapons (baton, PR-24), is that the tool is not used for pain compliance. When deployed properly it causes an immediate incapacitation of the suspect which facilitates detainment. On a use of force continuum the Taser can be used before control holds with a non-compliant suspect. Various agency studies have shown that the Taser has reduced officer involved shootings and injuries to officer’s and suspects. Last October I spoke with Jake Jacobsen, the president of the Phoenix Law Enforcement Association regarding the Taser. Jake told me that since they had full Taser deployment that officer involved shootings have been significantly reduced. According to the Arizona Republic newspaper in an article dated 6/21/03, officer involved shootings were down 50% over a 6 month period in 2003 from the same period in 2002. Taser deployment doubled in that same time period showing conclusively that it was responsible for the reduction in shootings. It should be noted that the 8 officer involved shootings in during the 6 month period in 2003 all involved a suspect armed with a firearm, leaving the officer with no other use of force option.

Another issue involving the Taser in a use of force incident is documentation. As with any other type of force the deployment of a Taser is a seizure under the 4th Amendment. Complete and descriptive reports must be completed to protect yourself, your partners, and your agency against liability. Your report should include the core transaction, your legal justification for using force, your thoughts and feelings surrounding the use of force, and departmental policies and training that justified your use of force. As always, notify your Association Representative of the use of force.

Taser Technology Reduces Injuries and Liability

As noted above, Tasers have been credited with the reduction of officer and suspect injuries. This in turn reduces liability for yourself and your agency. Various studies have been conducted involving agencies that have deployed the Taser. LAPD confirmed a 0% injury rate among suspects when a Taser was deployed. This compared to a 78% injury rate for baton deployment and a 60% injury rate for misc. body force. Each category included a 20% injury rate among officers compared to a 0% injury rate when the Taser was deployed. Granite City PD (IL) had $1.2 million in workers compensation claims from 2001-2002. After deployment of the Taser in 2003, there were no injury claims for 2 years, covering 2003-2004. A study by the Phoenix PD revealed a 67% decline in suspect injuries and a 50% decline in lethal force incidents after deployment. Seattle Police Chief R.Gil Kerlikowske credited the Taser for zero officer involved shootings in 2003; compared to officer involved shootings every year for the past 15 years. A 2003 field study of Taser deployment by the Cincinnati PD showed a 40% decline in suspect injuries, use of force was down by 50%, and citizen complaints were reduced by 50%. Astounding numbers from these studies and others. An area to explore in future studies should be use of force situations that were avoided by activation of the laser light and/or display of the electrical current as a deterrent. It appears that suspects are learning the effectiveness of the Taser and become compliant when the tool is displayed.

Deaths Following Taser Deployment

Recent media accounts of deaths following Taser deployment allude to the Taser and a causative factor in the deaths. On November 30, 2004, Amnesty International issued a report calling for a suspension on the use of the Taser until further testing can be done (refer to http://web.amnesty.org/library/index/engamr511392004). In a review of the report there are numerous factual errors including statements regarding probes that penetrate 2” of skin and omission of facts when recounting incidents (i.e. not reporting that a methamphetamine use was a contributing factor in a death). The report also tries to minimize situations that officers face claiming that a suspect that turns on you, resists arrest, or tries to escape does not constitute a use of force situation. The AI report also asserts that Tasers are rarely used as an alternative to a firearm. This is simply not true as demonstrated by agency studies in Phoenix and other cities. It is surprising that an organization dedicated to protection of human rights would want to ban a tool that is responsible for saving lives and reducing injuries as proven in the aforementioned studies. Amnesty International is advocating for more firearm use as opposed to non-lethal force options to overcome resistance and violent acts by suspects. There are many more disputable statements in the AI report but space constraints limit my report.

Another article by the Arizona Republic reports 90 cases of death after deployment of a Taser from 1999 until present. The article can be found at http://www.saveourcivilliberties.org/en/2005/02/943.shtml. After reading the cases it is apparent that a causal factor in almost all of the deaths was drug intoxification causing delirium and/or pre-existing medical conditions after struggles with law enforcement. Sound familiar? The Taser wasn’t around to blame prior to 1999 when these types of deaths were occurring at the same rates they are today. Surprisingly, the report does not mention that thousands of law enforcement officers have voluntarily been exposed to a deployment of the Taser without a single death. Why is that?

In conclusion, as a patrol officer who carries a Taser on a daily basis, I believe in the tool and the benefits associated with it. I have personally used the Taser to avoid force situations and injuries to myself and others. When you see a situation that you know will lead to force avoided by a display or use of a Taser you become a fast believer. Continued study of the Taser, policies surrounding use, and deaths after deployment should be evaluated for ways to reduce liability and injuries in the future. Education in use and liability associated with the Taser is the key for successful deployment in any law enforcement agency.

The police and fire games are coming to Reno in July. The P/F committee is seeking volunteers to assist in those games. Those wishing to volunteer can contact Assistant Sheriff Jim Lopey at WCSO at jlopey@mail.co.washoe.nv.us.

The next PORAN meeting will be held April 6, 2005, 1800 hrs at the Station Grill, 1105 S. Carson St, Carson City, NV. I can be contacted at bill@wcsda.com.

[Dubious]

[quote="Dubious"]I been shorting this since December 28.....

It will be single digit midgit before the end of year.

-------------------------------------------------
I am a God not thee God - Bill Murray

Going to ring the register on this pig today .

[HenryTo]

Note that anyone who had bought this when we recommended this last year should have exited a long time ago...

Interesting quote from the latest 10-K:"In addition, the implications of the Financial Accounting Standards Board ("FASB") 123R, which requires the expensing of fair value of employee stock options, may result in a significant additional compensation expense to be recorded by the Company."

As I recall, the amount diluted shares outstanding has been increasing by about 20% each year. The company also gets a huge tax deduction when employees exercise their stock options. This is very helpful when the stock price is going up, but the effect of it dies down when the stock price is going down (which is pretty much what has happened during the last few months).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Associated Press
Taser Sees 1Q Sales Below Estimates
Friday April 1, 7:39 am ET
Taser Sees First-Quarter Sales Falling Below Estimates, Cites 'Significant Adverse Publicity'


SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. (AP) -- Taser International Inc., the stun gun maker, said Friday that its first-quarter revenue came in below Wall Street expectations, citing "significant adverse publicity" that may have disrupted sales during the period.
Shares of Taser plunged $1.40, or 11.7 percent, to $10.60 during premarket activity.

The company estimated its quarterly sales at about $10 million, shy of the average estimate of $13.6 million from analysts polled by Thomson Financial. A year ago, the stun-gun maker took in revenue of $13 million.

Taser has come under fire in recent months over the safety of its stun guns, which are designed to temporarily incapacitate a subject with an electric jolt.

The weapons have been blamed for a growing list of accidental fatalities, but Taser continues to stand by studies demonstrating their safety.

[Dubious]

I been shorting this since December 28.....

It will be single digit midgit before the end of year.

At that point they will try to do a reverse stock split.

This is not the type of stock to be long in, in the present market conditions.

Insiders are bailing at THESE levels. Hmmm.

IMHO.

Dubious

Why you ask??? Options will be expensed Jun 05. They have more option then the float - their P/E is really closer to 200. This is a t-ball short - just swing the bat. Stocks are pieces of paper you seem to have gotten attached to this one - I may need to TASR you - oh the stock price has done it for me. When you hear they pay their contractors with options - ahh...enough said.

[HenryTo]

TASR gave back 10% today after rising 15% last Thursday based on the following news item:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B9307F671%2DC994%2D4306%2D8AA5%2D958190F12E7E%7D

Nothing new from the press today - guess the market is just weak here?

[HenryTo]

This looks bad for TASR:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/02/11/stun.gun.ap/index.html

[HenryTo]

A very "stinging" article on one of TASR's "competitors" - Stinger Systems.

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05012608.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y

I don't think this company (Stinger) can be taken seriously at all.

[HenryTo]

Good coverage of Taser's "competitors":

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05012420.htm

[HenryTo]

Two articles from the Motley Fool - and they don't have nice things to say about TASR:

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05012103.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05012113.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y

The fact that stock has decisively broke below its 40-week moving average also says something about the stock technically. Keep in mind that the stock has always been above its 40-week moving average since April 2003:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?tasr

[HenryTo]

A somewhat detailed article from marketwatch.com regarding LEA and Stinger - two of TASR's serious competitors:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BA1B71D1F%2D8074%2D4A28%2D926A%2DC7F278EA7958%7D

We will know just how competitive LEA is come March and how competitive Stinger is during the next 30 days. For now, I would definitely hold off on buying TASR unless you're just playing for a bounce.

Hopefully, readers who have bought this stock in the past have kept a trailing stop loss as the stock has risen. Remember - a stop loss is essential in any kind of markets (even bull markets).

[gregf]

TASR's taken a mucho haircut yowzer!

[HenryTo]

From Nov 26th Briefing.com comments:

12:51PM TASER Intl: New York Times Reporter Alex Berenson Volunteers for Full 5-Second TASER Hit (TASR) 47.18 -3.33: -- Update -- Following this morning's NY Times article (7:06), TASR announces that New York Times Reporter Alex Berenson volunteered to take a full 5-second TASER exposure on Nov 16, 2004 while researching his latest article on TASER safety. "We are incredulous that Mr. Berenson failed to mention in his latest article attacking TASER International safety that he felt the TASER system was safe enough that he voluntarily allowed himself to take a five-second exposure from the TASER... We believe it was disingenuous of Mr. Berenson to write an article disputing the safety of TASER devices and omit such a critical piece of information as his own personal experience as well as our written statement to him on this matter... Our press release on October 18, 2004 regarding the results of the Human Effects Center of Excellence (HECOE) TASER safety evaluation was reviewed and approved by representatives of the Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Program, Brooks Air Force Base and the HECOE. TASER International unequivocally stands behind our HECOE release of October 18, 2004".

[cl001]

Well, egy is big at the etam field, hitting huge wells, but the drilling cost is quite high because of the deep sea drilling. The only negative I saw was insider selling.
tgb just started the Gibraltar copper mine in Canada a few weeks ago, it will produce about 70 million pounds of copper and 980,000 pounds of molybdenum per year, additional 10 million pounds of copper cathode possible.
Molybdenum price has quadrupled in the past year, copper is looking good, check out the chart,
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
Note the copper inventory is historically low, if the price rise in the future, tgb can make much more than 40-50 cents next year.
In comparison, pd has forward pe about 9. I think tgb can double from here.

[HenryTo]

Nice trade on TASR, cl001! I am also trying not to trade that many stocks like TASR, but the market really has gotten a lot more speculative lately. Guess I'll just need to find some names that are well-known.

Regarding EGY, the value of their reserves definitely looks good here with a market cap of only $130 million with $22 million in cash and only $5 million in debt. I guess my question is: How much does it cost to get all that crude and natural gas out of the ground? What's their breakeven cost?

I haven't looked at TGB in detail yet but I noticed that they didn't have revenues during the last 12 months? Are they starting to ramp up their production?

[cl001]

Another nice call. Sold my last 200 tasr at 55+. I am more into value investing not the short sqeeze. I am trying to buy tgb and egy these days. Both started trading on amex recently. I think tgb is a better buy here, next year earning should be 40-50 cents vs stock price of 1.5. I'd like to get some of your insight. Thanks.