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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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rffrydr
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 Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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Talib's straw that breaks the camel's back is becoming the narrative of our time. Nail Fergueson is all over it, rewriting history--and historians. But, here, where everyone can see it comes the Oscars and Hollywood's embrace of the long tail:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/07/movies/awardsseason/07Scott.html?pagewanted=2
That so much was forseen by so many in this big bust ("while the music plays" should be the motto) is forgotten. Last era's truth will become this era's myth.
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Today is the Tomorrow you worried about Yesterday! |
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rffrydr
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| Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2009 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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Jackson's sharpe ratio was to die for:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32008618
| Quote: | | ...his 50 percent stake could be worth as much a $500 million. Mr. Jackson bought the majority of the Beatles catalog in 1985 for $47.5 million, after an informal chat with Paul McCartney about the wisdom of buying song catalogs. |
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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Article takes the idea of "black swans" and reapply it back to the scientific community in a (good) attempt to show what's wrong with new discoveries and innovations in today's culture:
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/38468 |
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rffrydr
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HenryTo
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rffrydr
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wilmateng
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Joined: 14 Apr 2009
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| Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:54 am Post subject: |
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i finally finished the book i bought half a year ago, but i still don't quite get the gist of what the author is saying. he don't really give specific tips on how to identify black swans events nor actual risk management techniques. would anyone b able to share a summary or analysis pls?  |
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HenryTo
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diesel
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Location: Australia & New Zealand
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nodoodahs
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Joined: 06 May 2005
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| Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | ``The Black Swan Protection Protocol is designed to break even 90 to 95 percent of the time,'' Spitznagel said. ``We happen to be in that other 5 to 10 percent environment.'' |
At one point, up over 100% but now closer to 50%. Let's call it 75% for the year.
Now let's be generous and assume no losing years, with breakeven 9 years out of 10 (instead of 95% or 19 out of 20 years).
1.75^(1/10) = 5.76% annualized over a decade.
Nothing, of course, next to the money he'll make on his next paragraph-stretched-into-a-pretentious-book.
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HenryTo
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| Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: |
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Taleb's strategies up more than 50% YTD:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDVgqxiT9RSg&refer=home
| Quote: | Universa Investments LP, the Santa Monica, California-based firm where Taleb is an adviser, has about $1 billion in accounts managed to hedge clients against big moves in financial markets. Returns for the year through Oct. 10 ranged as high as 110 percent, according investor documents. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 39 percent in the same period.
``I am very sad to be vindicated,'' Taleb said today in an interview in London. ``I don't care about the money. We're proud we protected our investors.'' |
Classic quote:
| Quote: | | ``We refused to touch credit default swaps,'' Taleb said. ``It would be like buying insurance on the Titanic from someone on the Titanic.'' |
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chestnutstime
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Joined: 24 Oct 2007
Posts: 89
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 12:21 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues |
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/marketsmag/mm_0508_story1.html
Chestnut |
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HenryTo
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Location: Los Angeles, California
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| Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:05 am Post subject: |
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John Mauldin on Black Swans in his latest weekly commentary:
http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo091407
| Quote: | I had been saving Nassim Taleb's latest book, "The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable," to read on my summer vacation. Glancing through the book when I first got it assured me that I wanted to give the book more than a quick read. I was not disappointed. You can quibble over various points in the book (and I may at some point), or not like his confrontational style, but this is a book that demands to be consumed slowly and thoughtfully.
There are parts of our lives which inhabit Mediocristan and parts which dwell in Extremistan. Not knowing the difference can be problematic, if not fatal. And it is difficult to know where one country starts and the other ends. If you are in Mediocristan, then you can use your bell curve assumptions without fear. But if you wander into the murky border areas, you are no longer safe in your assumptions. And yet, the longer and deeper you go into Extremistan without a problem, thinking you are safe in Mediocristan, the larger the disruption is likely to be. |
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